Transcript
Lex Nepomuceno: leaves out Now, here's your host, Lex Nepomuceno. Good morning, Tampa Bay if you've ever looked at a house online now You know what a listing can show you the rooms the photos the price What it can't show you is the life around the house. It can't tell you what the neighborhood feels like on a Saturday morning, where you grab coffee, whether there's a park.
Lex Nepomuceno: ah your kids can actually use, and what the traffic is like when you leave for work. ah These are issues that this show aims to shine a light on. And a big part of this is policy. A lot of it is the taxes, the insurance, the ah regulatory requirements in order to build a home or to make an addition to your existing home. And one of the biggest issues this year, obviously, is Amendment 3. And we have two guests on that will be on a little later. The first one is gubernatorial candidate, Representative Byron Donalds, who's been a very strong proponent of Amendment 3. And the second one is Jeff Brandes of the Florida Policy Project, who had actually worked with Byron Donalds in the in the state legislature before. And he takes the other side of that issue. But before then, we're going to talk a little bit about the real estate and a little bit of about the market. I'm here with my co -host, DJ Northrup, a top 1 % realtor here in the town. Bay Area he was also voted a rookie of the year was it 2023? 24. 24, okay. and And since then, you have sold, in three years, you've sold over 100 homes? That is true, yes. That is impressive. Whenever I tell people that, that's incredible. so And so we're here to talk a little that talk a little shop today, talk a little bit about the properties. And DJ, welcome. and how's How's the housing market going? Well, thank you, Lex. Appreciate it. Super excited for our guest today. Because, you know, taxes are a big...
Lex Nepomuceno: They're a big part of it. So how is the market? The market in general is slower than last year. And last year was slower than the year before. And a lot of that is. is cost right everybody knows it uh interest rates are what people think And that's a big piece, obviously.
Lex Nepomuceno: But, you know, what does your monthly payment include? It's your principal, your interest, taxes, and insurance, right? Well, taxes are through the roof and insurance is through the roof. particularly in case of insurance here in Florida.
Lex Nepomuceno: And so. those two extra items added to your monthly payment along with the high interest rates and then along with the um you know increase in values here in florida during covid you know so you have to remember Um, Yeah, Florida's where everyone ran to. during COVID. So if you'd bought a house in town, let's say just generic Pinellas County.
Lex Nepomuceno: in 2019. for $500 ,000. you could have turned around and sold that house in june of 2022 the height of the COVID market, if you will.
Lex Nepomuceno: for $750. I mean, that's just, that's incredible amount of equity growth and and and and prices going up. And so that was great for the folks who owned houses then, right? But...
Lex Nepomuceno: The problem we've run into, of course, is It's all part of the affordability problems. Now you have a house that's you know maybe... um Oh. artificially high in its price and then you throw on top of it the the high interest rates. And then you throw on top of that the high insurance costs and the high Property taxes.
Lex Nepomuceno: Excuse me, and then you've got... All of a sudden, you've got a house that's unaffordable. You've got a market that's unaffordable. So you've got first -time home buyers who can't afford a house. You've got... sellers right now who you know, maybe bought their house with a VA loan, let's say zero down, zero closing, or an FHA loan.
Lex Nepomuceno: um three percent down three and a half percent down something like that in 2022 or 2023 and now they're trying to sell their house and the market's down just a touch They have no equity. Right? They have no equity, so they can't.
Lex Nepomuceno: sell their house if they, you know, they have to write a check to get out of their house. And so prices aren't coming down much either because people are in those type of situations. So it's really an interesting. It's interesting, a little stalemate of a market, and something has to give somewhere. Right. Either rates have to come down or prices of the sell. You know, people have to you hate for that to happen where, you know.
Lex Nepomuceno: people to start selling for whatever they have to sell for and then you've got short sales and foreclosures and we hope that doesn't happen. So really having this other.
Lex Nepomuceno: That's what... what often forgot about but very important piece of the Um, property taxes, and insurance. is a big deal.
Lex Nepomuceno: So. So let's use an example. I've got i've got a, I've got a. um listing right now at ah at the Windjammer condos in St. Pete. Okay, 1400 Gandy Boulevard.
Lex Nepomuceno: It's unit 1213. Yeah, we're on the market for $179 ,000. It's a two bedroom, two bath. And it's property taxes right now. are $2 ,897.
Lex Nepomuceno: Okay. So. you know, don't want to do. Quick online, you know, live radio math, but. But what is that per what is that per month? $400, something like that a month. So you add $300, $400 a month, something like that, to come up to $3 ,000 a year in taxes. If the amendment passes, Amendment 3 passes,
Lex Nepomuceno: Um, the Homestead exemption will go from... $50 ,000 to $150 ,000 next year and then $250 ,000 the year after that. So with the exception of the schools, which don't go...
Lex Nepomuceno: don't get that second jump away from 50 this this um condo would be basically tax free. Because at its price at $179. you'd only be paying really you'd only be paying for schools.
Lex Nepomuceno: right so that's small port so i mean it would basically make the the house, if you think about, again, from a point of view of someone who makes, you know. say $60 ,000 a year. And that's know gross. you know That's their paycheck or that's their you know gross pay, right? So after their taxes and such, it's really they're making, you know.
Lex Nepomuceno: 40, 45, something like that, and take home pay. If you could... knock $3 ,000 off of their annual, I mean, that's almost 10%. That's like 7, 8, 9 % of their income of their take -home pay. would be taxes that are gone. That makes a huge difference in being able to afford to buy that.
Lex Nepomuceno: that condo. Now, the interesting thing about condo, though, as you know, HOAs seem like a way bigger burden than taxes and for condos at this point. Well, it's true. And so in this particular case, this condo is $548 a month. Now, that includes, you always have to look.
Lex Nepomuceno: So. Generally speaking, what you said is correct. there's there And it's because of insurance and it's because of insurance and it's because of the special assessments and all the work they had to do. um With the new rules of structural inspection and and some of the buildings didn't have reserves and then they had to get reserves And so HOA fees went up and special assessments went up. That's that's working itself out
Lex Nepomuceno: all of that because now all that is done. People know you know the special assessments have been paid or they're on a payment plan. The buildings that had to fund reserves in a year, so the HOA jumped from $800 to $1 ,200 or $1 ,300, they're actually coming back down because they didn't spend it all.
Lex Nepomuceno: right they had to they had by law they had to create the reserve so now they've created it but they didn't spend it. or all of it, so the HOA fee came down a little bit. so that That part of it's working itself out. The other part of it, of course, was insurance. and i know And I know that... You know, I know that Congressman Donald has a ah plan. for insurance as well i know that He'll be attacking the...
Lex Nepomuceno: affordability issue from multiple fronts but besides just the property tax initiative but insurance itself too because um Bringing insurance rights down makes a big difference. In this particular case at the at the condo that I have listed, the HOA fee.
Lex Nepomuceno: includes it is paying the common area taxes and the common area insurance. and the insurance on the building and on the roof. an escrow reserve fund for the roof. But you you have to look at it too, because sometimes, you know, you have exterior maintenance, you have an exterior.
Lex Nepomuceno: the pool maintenance, your sewer, your trash, and your water, right? so Putting aside. the you know. The increase or the scary number on the HOA fee, and a lot of that is because, like I said, because of insurance costs.
Lex Nepomuceno: But you can also look at it and say, okay, if I own my own house out in town. And I had to amortize a roof over 20 years. And I have to keep up the lawn and I have to keep up. you know i have to pay my own trash bill and my own sewer and water bill.
Lex Nepomuceno: Some of these include, a lot of the HOAs include cable internet. That's part of the HOA fee. So you start adding those things up. And you actually can get up to five, six hundred bucks pretty easily. by the time you you know So you really have to look and see what the HOA fee is covering.
Lex Nepomuceno: Because if it's covering all those things, sewer, trash, water, the insurance, so making your insurance super cheap, HO3 versus HO6 insurance, it's basically studs in versus the whole thing. You own a house, you have to insure the whole thing.
Lex Nepomuceno: If you own a condo. and the HOA fee is covering the exterior insurance on the exterior of the building. You only have to cover the interior of your unit. that insurance is a lot less so there are some savings there so you have to look at that and you have to say okay maybe the first 400 to 600, depending on what the HOA is covering.
Lex Nepomuceno: um it's actually a push to wash. If I had a house, I'd be spending that anyway. Once you get up to the $900, $1 ,000, $1 ,100, $1 ,200 a month, you get out on Clearwater Beach and we're talking about $1 ,500, $1 ,800 a month.
Lex Nepomuceno: That's when. you know those numbers are crazy inflated because of taxes and because of insurance Yeah. Now, um going into more granular a little bit with your listings, ah it' it's kind of funny. I go to a lot of events and I talk to a lot of realtors.
Lex Nepomuceno: and And and so one of the things we talk about is the. um uh um how many homes that they have on the market. You have six, and or someone saying something like that, right? so ah so um But we'll we'll actually get back to that. Go to break. let Go to break a little bit now, but we'll get back to that when we come back.
Lex Nepomuceno: Okay, great.
Lex Nepomuceno: This is the Tantalk Radio Network. 12 months of deposits. Two years of 1099s. Every lender sees a tax return and subtracts your deductions.
Lex Nepomuceno: Smart underwriting looks at what actually lands in your account. Non -QM mortgages from MortgageOne qualify self -employed borrowers on real cash flow. 12 to 24 month bank statement programs, 1099 income. asset depletion.
Lex Nepomuceno: No W -2, no two years of tax returns, no explaining your own business to a committee. contractor, consultant, freelancer, owner, operator. You've already done the work.
Lex Nepomuceno: Get lending that agrees. So apply online at lexforloans .com. That's L -E -X for loans .com. NMLS 281 -2173 Equal housing lender. This is not a promise to lend. Approval depends on credit and program rules. Not everyone will qualify.
Lex Nepomuceno: Cash -flowing rentals. Rejection letters from big banks. Sound familiar? Traditional lenders count your W -2s. Smart underwriting counts your rent.
Lex Nepomuceno: Non -QM mortgages, including DSCR loans that qualify the property on its own rental income. No personal income documents. No debt -to -income gymnastics. No runaround.
Lex Nepomuceno: pick up your next duplex fourplex or single family rental with lending built for investors Bank statements, 1099 income, asset depletion and DSCR.
Lex Nepomuceno: Our non -QM programs put capital where your opportunity is. So apply online at lexforloans .com. That's lexforloans .com.
Lex Nepomuceno: LexForLoans .com. NMLS 281 -2173. Equal housing lender. This is not a promise to lend. Approval depends on credit and program rules. Not everyone will qualify. This is the Tantalk Radio Network. Welcome back to Keys to Tampa. I'm Lex Nefmasena with co -host DJ Northrup.
Lex Nepomuceno: If you own a home in Florida or you're trying to buy one, your property tax bill could change in a big way. depending on what you do in the ballot this year. Amendment 3 would make... the homestead exemption much bigger and change how local governments can raise and spend property tax money.
Lex Nepomuceno: It needs 60 % of the vote to pass. My guest has been one of the strongest proponents of this. Amendment. Byron Donalds, Representative Byron Donalds has represented Southwest Florida. in Congress since 2021.
Lex Nepomuceno: Before that he served in the Florida House and spent years in banking and finance. He's now the Republican nominee for governor. and the election is less than a week away. Congressman, welcome to Keys to Tampa.
Lex Nepomuceno: It's good to be on your show. Thanks for having me. Right. ah You've been crossing the state for months. What? are people bringing up most when they stop you? ah Affordability, insurance, property taxes, cost of housing.
Lex Nepomuceno: um You know, gas prices, obviously, food prices. ah People just want to make sure that Florida is more affordable into the future. ah They love this state. They want to continue to be a part of this state.
Lex Nepomuceno: but they also want to make sure that they can afford it. And so that's why my campaign were laser focused on the things that the next governor can accomplish. that's primarily around insurance costs.
Lex Nepomuceno: property taxes and building and how they're in the cost of building housing. But with Amendment 3, I support it because the people of Florida need relief. I mean, local governments. had plenty of opportunities over the last six years.
Lex Nepomuceno: to smooth out tax collections, do what's called a rollback rate. So they weren't collecting more tax revenue just because. property values were going up. And so We find ourselves where property taxes went from $32 billion to $56 billion.
Lex Nepomuceno: And now that... the legislature and the governor put on the ballot an increased homestead exemption. local governments are now saying well that's not fair well i think it's important for people to understand that local governments could have gone to a rollback rate at any given time.
Lex Nepomuceno: They knew about all of the issues around inflation from the Biden administration and in the years. If the Democrats were in control, they could have smoothed out tax collections. And they chose not to. So now the voters are going to decide.
Lex Nepomuceno: I support the voters in that initiative and being able to get more relief. ah But whether it passes or fails, we're going to bring this all back anyway because we have to be able to get relief. to people, especially our seniors and working families in our state.
Lex Nepomuceno: On insurance, our plan lowers premiums 20 % in Florida using this. Common sense. changes to the way our regulatory system works in Florida. Building on top of the text. on top of the tort reform that Governor DeSantis brought in to insurance a couple of years ago.
Lex Nepomuceno: Okay. Now, if I'm a home ah um homeowner in Brandon or Wesley Chapel with a homestead exemption, what changes for them What changes for them in 2027 and 2028? Amendment 3 passes.
Lex Nepomuceno: Well, in 2027, it would be the first $150 ,000 of value in their home. would be uh exempt uh from uh from county taxes and city taxes um It would still apply from school districts. School districts are not a part of the amendment.
Lex Nepomuceno: in 2028. it would be the first $250 ,000 of value. So the people who really get help get helped the most. our seniors on fixed income and working families all through the state of Florida.
Lex Nepomuceno: including it in that part of the state. They are the ones who would take. get the most benefit i think people who you know obviously you have multi -million dollar homes they would see a benefit Aw, buds. in terms of the the actual budgetary impact, the biggest benefit would be.
Lex Nepomuceno: to working families and seniors on fixed income. a Congressman, this is DJ Northrup. I'm a local real estate broker here. And and so um to your point. that it really helps the the people with the lesser expensive houses because it's really we're talking about that first 50 turning to 150 then 250. Do you know what it would save the average Tampa Bay homeowner?
Lex Nepomuceno: the past i I actually don't have that in front of me, but I mean, look, if you're. If your home is valued. let's say it's valued by the property appraiser at $400 ,000 and your homestead exemption goes from 50 to 150.
Lex Nepomuceno: um That is a substantial tax cut. I mean, you're probably talking anywhere from 30 to 40 % of the tax. of a tax cut on your property and i think that's That's huge savings for people.
Lex Nepomuceno: who are trying to figure out how to make ends meet it's with so many other expenses. in their daily lives. Oh, absolutely. Especially, like I said, the the people who are... It can only afford the, you know, say. That's a great number you had there, 400 ,000. I mean, that really, that that a lot of houses, first -time homebuyers. I know my daughter was one of them just recently. and yeah She's got a good job, and you know that's about it. the most she could afford.
Lex Nepomuceno: It would really help with the the tax savings there. Schools are not affected, correct? so that that the the homestead exemption on the schools. So the schools continue to get the existing funding.
Lex Nepomuceno: Yeah, schools, the school property tax is actually not touched in this. so people would still be able to i mean schools are going to continue to get the funding uh that they've grown accustomed to But what I said at the top about the rollback rate.
Lex Nepomuceno: and this is for school districts also school districts need to be mindful of what taxpayers can pay as well. You just can't treat the people of Florida like they're a never -ending piggy bank. And so I think the school districts, they have a responsibility to go to a rollback rate.
Lex Nepomuceno: it's I think there's been one or two districts in the state that have done that. The others need to follow suit. Yeah. So as you mentioned just a minute ago, $32 billion to $53 billion, I mean, that's not quite double, but it's close.
Lex Nepomuceno: Did the... the police and the fire department budgets double during that time? um Well, I think for police and fire, their budgets didn't double. Some of their budgets have expanded. and I just want to be clear part of that is being able to pay officers more uh things of that nature which i think everybody would generally agree with But there's ways to do this. without just jacking property taxes on on citizens.
Lex Nepomuceno: And so I think that... there is going to have to be a lot of mindfulness and restraint. when it comes to budgets. on the local level. um look at the end of the day The people of Florida, they do not live. for governments.
Lex Nepomuceno: it's actually the opposite governments are in existence to provide key services but they also have to be mindful about what the public can bear. but What do you say to people who are worried about cutbacks to um law enforcement and public safety.
Lex Nepomuceno: Well, the amendment. Yeah, well, theyend the amendment's actually very clear on this. The first dollars collected by local government have to go towards public safety. and The amendment's quite clear on this. There are a couple other uses.
Lex Nepomuceno: But the first dollars that come in have to go towards that, which means that every local government and and and every local government is have to prioritize. what they're going to do with the other services that they do provide, because we all know that public safety in Florida, that just comes first. That's a non -negotiable for the residents of our state.
Lex Nepomuceno: Great. Now about. of the population in Tampa are renters. They don't get the homestead exemption. ah How does Amendment 3 help them if it does?
Lex Nepomuceno: Well, Amendment 3 doesn't really help renters. I just want to be clear. It doesn't really impact them at all. um if If anything, what it does do, it slows the rate of growth on property taxes for non -homestead.
Lex Nepomuceno: property. Before this amendment, local governments could increase. uh property taxes on non -homesteaded property which would include renters 10 % per year.
Lex Nepomuceno: um It actually lowers the percentage potential increase from 10 to 5. So theoretically, that does help landlords because their property tax. potential bills into the future.
Lex Nepomuceno: um have more uh have much more of a ceiling which then could directly impact people in terms of what they could save for rent. I will tell you real quick I know we're talking property taxes.
Lex Nepomuceno: This is where in my insurance reform agenda. um and lowering premiums 20 % could really help renters. Because if you can stabilize and lower insurance costs.
Lex Nepomuceno: for multifamily ah units. that directly helps renters because if a landlord if their hard costs have come down. uh typically what a landlord would do then is if they if it then would allow them to cut rents they could cut rents because what a landlord really wants is maximum occupancy. and consistent occupancy.
Lex Nepomuceno: They don't want to have to constantly be fighting for that new renter. uh every single year because the turnover Just our art. They actually take away from the bottom line altogether.
Lex Nepomuceno: Yeah, absolutely. No, and I see that and in the the real estate business too, that, you know, obviously the... the landlord is trying to cover. their costs with the rent they charge. So if the insurance is through the roof, then that just makes the rents more.
Lex Nepomuceno: expensive And maybe that. The rest of your platform there is part of my next question I suppose so this is a Um, It says the poles have this. initiative or an amendment at about 50%. Yes, it needs 60 to pass.
Lex Nepomuceno: Um, So what's if it doesn't pass, the plan B, that's that's the... a the donald the Donald's plan that you were just talking about? You have three prongs to that? Did you want to? elaborate a little more.
Lex Nepomuceno: Yeah. So in Florida's constitution, every 20 years is a tax and budget reform commission. uh the the tax and budget reform commission actually gets sat next year So our plan is whether whether the Amendment 3 passes or whether it fails, to be honest, both ways.
Lex Nepomuceno: We're going to take the entire property tax system. ah put it into the public, the Tax and Budget Reform Commission. come up with strategies for how we fully repeal homestead property taxes. If we can't get the math to work on that, then we want to target relief.
Lex Nepomuceno: to seniors. and to the seniors on fixed income and working families in our state. The other big thing, there's a couple other things that we do need to fix in our property tax system. ah the The first is portability.
Lex Nepomuceno: what ah most people in our state have are starting to grow accustomed to. is that if you've lived in your house for ah a long time and you've accumulated a bunch of Saber Holmes credits, If you sell to downsize or whatever the case might be.
Lex Nepomuceno: your property tax bill at the next. peace place you live. jumps through the roof so think about this you have a senior um Maybe they want to downsize their property.
Lex Nepomuceno: um And if they downsize, their property tax bill actually goes up. under the current property tax system. if you're a young family and you're starting to have more kids and you decide that you're going to sell your current home because you need a bigger home Well, your property tax bill is significantly higher when you go into the new home.
Lex Nepomuceno: So the portability stuff needs to be fixed. um The other thing is just the fact that we have very diverse counties in the state of Florida. We're actually a very diverse state. And so I think the Florida needs a multi -tier.
Lex Nepomuceno: property tax system that respects Miami -Dade and Orange County and Hillsborough County. against the differences that you see in Dixie County or Citrus County. Lafayette County or Levy County.
Lex Nepomuceno: Right. ah one One last item. your statewide online permitting system. This relates to housing costs as well and building costs. What is it and how much faster or cheaper could it make building a home in in this area?
Lex Nepomuceno: um I mean, we haven't sat down and fully modeled it, but I mean, just anecdotally, we know that if you reform permitting and planning and get permits in the hands of people. faster. That will just cut down the cost of capital on construction.
Lex Nepomuceno: The National Association of Home Builders said that 30 % of the cost of a new home is government? i mean not a roof or not appliances just government permitting costs and timelines so if you streamline that process if you can get people's permits turned around um in A month and a week's time and a month's time, that's significantly better.
Lex Nepomuceno: than the two years it can take to get a permit in the state of Florida. And those two years aren't free. so let's just you can make the argument that easily you could cut those costs in half.
Lex Nepomuceno: And if you can cut those costs in half. than what you're really talking about. is for a $300 ,000 home where the... permitting costs and timelines or let's call them $80 ,000 to $90 ,000, maybe $100 ,000.
Lex Nepomuceno: you can easily shave off thirty to forty thousand dollars of that that directly impacts the affordability for people trying to start getting their first home. or even renters because everybody knows we're trying to figure out how to build affordable housing units in the state.
Lex Nepomuceno: Well, if you can cut down the permitting timelines and the permitting delays then you're actually saving the developer those those dollars, and it makes it easier to make sure that that development can pencil. so you can actually have affordable rents for people who are trying to get started.
Lex Nepomuceno: Permitting reform I think is important in terms of delivering. uh cheaper cheaper uh housing product overall um and also post storm i know we deal obviously we're in florida and florida we're gonna deal with hurricanes Post storm, we want permitting to be automatic.
Lex Nepomuceno: People shouldn't have to wait to get a permit to rebuild the home. that they've already were allowed to build. in Florida. We want to make permitting automatic and people need to rebuild. That way they can get back in their homes faster. And that makes it cheaper. for the homeowner and actually help, I believe helps to lower replacement cost factors. and insurance policies further alluring. insurance rates.
Lex Nepomuceno: Wonderful. um Congressman, if people, the election is early is coming up in that and and less than a week here. How do people learn more about you and and get a hold of the campaign? ah want Go to ByronDonalds .com. On our website, we post all of our policies in detail. People can go there.
Lex Nepomuceno: look at that also we're in the middle of a bus tour We, I think, finished stop number 30 today. And so we have 20 more cities to go. uh we're gonna be in every community in the state the the entire list of where we're going is on our website And for people who just want to find out more. about what we stand for, go to my go to my Twitter, go to my Facebook.
Lex Nepomuceno: Go to our YouTube page. We actually post. our meetings live so people can see the meetings live. When we were doing a lot of town halls and Q and &A, that stuff was live for people being able to.
Lex Nepomuceno: to ask their questions and we did probably a hundred of those. And so those events were all posted live. am and And they're still cataloged on our social media or on our YouTube page. Well, Congressman Byron Donalds, thank you so much for joining us here on Keys to Tampa.
Lex Nepomuceno: and best of luck on your campaign. Listen, thank you everybody. Just get out and vote. Thank you. Bye. Bye bye.
Lex Nepomuceno: This is the Tantalk Radio Network. Cash Flowing Rentals. Rejection letters from big banks. Sound familiar? Traditional lenders count your W -2s.
Lex Nepomuceno: Smart underwriting counts your rent. Non -QM mortgages, including DSCR loans that qualify the property on its own rental income. No personal income documents. No debt to income gymnastics. No runaround.
Lex Nepomuceno: Pick up your next duplex, fourplex, or single -family rental with lending built for investors. Bank statements, 1099 income, asset depletion, and DSCR.
Lex Nepomuceno: Our non -QM programs put capital where your opportunity is. So apply online at lexforloans .com. That's L -E -X for loans .com.
Lex Nepomuceno: lexforloans .com NMLS 281 -2173. Equal housing lender. This is not a promise to lend. Approval depends on credit and program rules. Not everyone will qualify.
Lex Nepomuceno: 12 months of deposits. two years of 1099s. Every lender sees a tax return and subtracts your deductions. Smart underwriting looks at what actually lands in your account.
Lex Nepomuceno: Non -QM mortgages from MortgageOne qualify self -employed borrowers on real cash flow. 12 to 24 -month bank statement programs. 1099 income, asset depletion.
Lex Nepomuceno: No W -2, no two years of tax returns, no explaining your own business to a committee. contractor, consultant, freelancer, owner, operator. You've already done the work.
Lex Nepomuceno: Get lending that agrees. So apply online at lexforloans .com. That's L -E -X for loans .com. NMLS 281 -2173. Equal housing lender. This is not a promise to lend. Approval depends on credit and program rules. Not everyone will qualify.
Lex Nepomuceno: This is the Tan Talk Radio Network. This is the Tan Talk Radio Network.
Lex Nepomuceno: on the show with Jeff Brandes of the Florida Policy Project. Jeff, why don't you tell us a little bit about yourself and about the the organization that that you lead? Sure, I was born and raised in St. Petersburg. I spent 11 years in the military.
Lex Nepomuceno: joined the Florida legislature in 2010, served till 2022. got out of them of the legislature with kind of... One big takeaway, which is. Everything in Tallahassee is tactical. There really isn't a larger strategy to most of the things they're working on.
Lex Nepomuceno: And started a nonprofit really to focus in on kind of. helping the state identify a better way to do public policy. Which for me is based around best practices. Look, if we went to a farm.
Lex Nepomuceno: farmers work on best practices and we went to a pharmaceutical company they they design pharmaceuticals based on best practices So why can't we run public policy based on best practices? thinking of 50 states and 50 different laboratories.
Lex Nepomuceno: all running different experiments. How do we take from the best of those experiments and bring them to Florida? So that's really the reason we started the Florida Policy Project. We hire college professors and experts from around the country and ask them tough questions like, what is the best?
Lex Nepomuceno: what is the best best practice in four policy areas housing insurance transportation and the prison system in Florida. Great. With. Florida, the property tax debate is primarily caused by a lot of the local governments and you coming from the state government.
Lex Nepomuceno: Can you explain the the dynamic there? Right now, the issues on the ballot are obviously addressing this issue, but for those of us who aren't so familiar with the... ah says Can you describe that ah dynamic? between states.
Lex Nepomuceno: Yeah, yeah so so anytime you deal with property taxes in Florida, you have to deal with the Constitution. So any ad valorem tax changes has to be done via constitution. And that's to protect a number of things, right? It's to protect the legislature from coming in and on a whim changing major issues in the ballot or or for local governments. And so it is a foundational kind of issue of our Florida tax structure.
Lex Nepomuceno: We don't allow state income tax. we We don't allow that in the Constitution. And we require that any changes being made to ad valorem taxes be done via the Constitution. and That's a major protection for Floridians.
Lex Nepomuceno: So why has property taxes increased so much over the past few years since COVID? Well, sure, because we've seen a huge influx of new population into Florida that has driven values up.
Lex Nepomuceno: Considerably. Look, if you went back to 2018, 2019, average price of a home was... 250 ,000 to 300 ,000. That's now risen to 400 to 420 ,000. average first -time homebuyer has shifted from you know early 30s to now over 40 years old in florida and that's ah just a draw a question of affordability and and that's really kind of driving the political machine right now so if you ask them the people if you ask the polling question of like what's the biggest concern it's affordability number one by far
Lex Nepomuceno: number one The number two one is yeah we got to fix insurance. And then everything else kind of falls below that. But affordability continues to be the major issue, and the the legislature hasn't done much to address those that major issue in the last two years.
Lex Nepomuceno: Well... Going along the lines of affordability, what are some of the... biggest you you mentioned some of the drivers with affordability but What are some of the other drivers of affordability? I mean, the local municipalities play a big role in this.
Lex Nepomuceno: It plays some role in it, but I wouldn't say they play a huge role in affordability for overall. Right, look, most people are concerned about housing costs. They're concerned about the price of eggs and the price of fuel. Well, the state doesn't control those things. It does, at some juncture, control housing costs, and it does buy... ah buy kind of giving cities and counties the authority to kind of set their own zoning.
Lex Nepomuceno: has has allowed cities and counties to grow their lot sizes to restrict zoning. So the state has allowed them to be very restrictive. and what properties are allowed to put in certain areas by by city and county.
Lex Nepomuceno: The simple truth is we have no real housing policy for the state of Florida. We don't have a real housing strategy for the state. One of my bigger... issues is that you know we we you know, the state will throw money at a problem.
Lex Nepomuceno: But it doesn't. kind of incentivize counties and cities. to encourage more housing in order to access those funds. And that's a major problem and I think a flaw in Florida law. which is it doesn't set the proper incentives for communities to lean in.
Lex Nepomuceno: Because if you look at the overall housing market right now, the wealthy are doing fine. The middle are getting squeezed. And frankly, the the entry -level housing has gone extinct. And Amendment 3. doesn't make that better for entry -level housing.
Lex Nepomuceno: Well, going into Amendment 3, why don't you talk a little bit about that and and the the the issues it tries to address and the... the project stance on this issue and some of the perspectives that you think the public needs to know about.
Lex Nepomuceno: Well, I mean, I think the question the big first question is what goal are we trying to do? like what trying What goal are we trying to solve? And R, is it the right goal? right that's the kind of first question so Understand the history of Amendment 3. It started back as a year and over a year ago. The governor first came out and talked about a thousand dollar credit.
Lex Nepomuceno: for homesteaded property owners. The legislature rejected that idea. They said, listen, we're not going to just send people a check. Then they said, then the governor shifted and for a year and a half.
Lex Nepomuceno: He talked about. ah getting rid of all property taxes or for homesteaded properties, right? We, you know, it was the whole, you can't, you shouldn't rent your house. from the government. it was it was and and that was the major discussion for all Honestly, a year and a half.
Lex Nepomuceno: The problem is nobody had Excuse me. Nobody can do the math behind that. Right, there was no... It wasn't like. okay and here's how the trade -offs work and here's what we're shifting to And here's how we're going to fund local governments.
Lex Nepomuceno: There was none of that conversation. And then he calls a special session, and 72 hours before that special session, he releases his plan.
Lex Nepomuceno: But the plan comes with no data. No modeling. No discussion about externalities. Nothing. and the legislature. Within 48 hours, picks that plan up. and passes it out. They had a lot of questions, but they also had the votes to pass it.
Lex Nepomuceno: kind of going in So that none of the real meaty questions of this amendment got addressed during that conversation, during that. 48 hour window.
Lex Nepomuceno: when they passed this law. are passed this this wildly amendment to go on the ballot i guess that's right what it said And that's... That's where a lot of the concerns come in because. We actually didn't get the data.
Lex Nepomuceno: for another two to three weeks. And then we. didn't get the mod we we still haven't gotten a modeling on a lot of these impacts that people are discussing and those modelings are still coming out and they're not coming out from the state.
Lex Nepomuceno: They're coming out from all these different private organizations. that are raising their hands and saying, we have real concerns here. Because... You didn't think about X, Y, and Z. So. It's a goal was we're just going to.
Lex Nepomuceno: What kind of... drop in a new exemption. and save homeowners some money, that if that's the goal, if that's the only goal. then, like, that's that's what this does.
Lex Nepomuceno: But it doesn't think about the secondary consequences and third consequences. of what happens. When you just do that. And those consequences can be very severe.
Lex Nepomuceno: Yeah, so imagine that you're a physician And you have two patients. One is healthy. and one is sick. You would not go out and prescribe them the same medication.
Lex Nepomuceno: That has. Massive side effects. right For the sick patient, it may be absolutely appropriate to do that. and those side effects may be worth it. But you would never prescribe that for your healthy patient because we would call that malpractice.
Lex Nepomuceno: Unfortunately, the way this amendment works... is it is essentially medicine for all patients. It doesn't look at your swell run. Lean Cities. that have you know that have been trying to do everything right ah versus your cities who are spinning like drunken sailors.
Lex Nepomuceno: It doesn't do that at all. It takes the same, it provides the same. medicine to all cities across the board. And the impacts are wildly different. And so. One of the big challenges that we find is...
Lex Nepomuceno: It impacts communities that are bedroom communities. Much harder. then it impacts coastal or highly commercialized districts. And so for instance, even in my community in Pinellas County.
Lex Nepomuceno: right i have some some cities that are On the beach that are. predominantly commercial. they get like a 6 % or 7 % impact. I have some of my interior cities.
Lex Nepomuceno: that are That's going to be a 30, 40 % of that. Right, and that's wildly different. and And for some of them, it's existential. right There are some cities that just will not survive.
Lex Nepomuceno: after this if 400 florida has 411 cities. I think you're... quickly down. 40 to 50 maybe 60 cities that just give up the ghost because they can't.
Lex Nepomuceno: They can't make the numbers work long term. And that's a major problem. Because when you look at these governments, what you need to be thinking about is... is love Everybody loves to talk about the headline numbers of their total budgets.
Lex Nepomuceno: But so much of their total budget is what we call restricted funds. It's enterprise funds. It's things for like the sewer and water and roads. Those are restricted funds. You can't take money out of those areas.
Lex Nepomuceno: and spend it then. On. Please. fire, libraries, other other kind of general activities. No, those funds are in enterprise funds are restricted. They're part of grants coming in. You can't spend that grant money outside of the grant.
Lex Nepomuceno: So. When you look at many of these budgets. oftentimes it's 70, 75 % of a community's budget is restricted. And the state sets it up that way. to keep Those those other items funded because they know that the creep the desire to creep money into other issues is is real.
Lex Nepomuceno: And so... Oftentimes, when you look at these budgets, the first thing people need to look at is... What is the general fund? Because the general fund is what funds your police, which funds your fire, which funds your parks.
Lex Nepomuceno: which funds your administrative services. your planners, your zoning, all of those kind of things that we think about as government. are funded inside the general fund. And then you have to begin to look at, all right, what are the long -term obligations in that general fund? Is it debt? Is it pensions? What are their other contractual obligations?
Lex Nepomuceno: then we went Then we have to look at police and fire. And when you look at that. It's usually well over half. of a general fund Is. Those types of things. but you can't Even before you pay for police and firefighters, you have to pay your debts.
Lex Nepomuceno: Right. So if you need long term bonds out, you have to pay your debts first and then you can find police and fire. Again, that's half of the the general fund budget. So... As Amendment 3... As we look at Amendment 3 and we look at the impacts of Amendment 3 on communities.
Lex Nepomuceno: The first question you have to ask is... Do you preserve public safety? Do you protect police and fire? Because... Despite the rhetoric, there is nothing in the constitutional amendment.
Lex Nepomuceno: that actually protects. police and fire. It is listed as one of the things that we can spend. property tax money on. But it is not. carved out and then it in it put in a special category. It is not preserved in any way as ah as a untouchable area.
Lex Nepomuceno: And if you answer the question, yes, we want to preserve police and fire. That means all of the cuts the city are and county have to make. must come from everything else.
Lex Nepomuceno: And that can be. Draconian. I mean, it can be pretty brutal. I was in the city of Largo the other day and we had a conversation. And they said, listen, if we preserve police and fire.
Lex Nepomuceno: did we And then the next largest budget line is our parks and recreation. If we cut all our parts. close are permanently our recreation centers.
Lex Nepomuceno: and permanently close our library. We only now need to find $5 million dollars to backfill the hole. Well, there was an audible gasp in the room. Like, oh my gosh, these are the things that we love about our community.
Lex Nepomuceno: And you're talking about. shutting them down prominently. Not to mention it's... ah you know well over $100 million dollars worth of assets that we would be permanently taking off, the yeah shutting down.
Lex Nepomuceno: So. There... There's a real... challenging conversations that have to have. Also, we have to think about... that cities and counties can still raise revenue too.
Lex Nepomuceno: Right so they can shift specifically fire and storm water. to what we call... non -Ad Valorem fees. So ad valorem is related to value.
Lex Nepomuceno: And non -advalorum is like a per parcel fee, not related to the value. It can be per parcel, per square footage. But for the shortest putt for many of these communities is going to be to shift their taxes.
Lex Nepomuceno: to non -advalorum fees. The challenge with that is they're not subject to any exemptions. And so if you have a homeowner's exemption, you've lived in your home for 30 years, well, great. Your rates can only go up 3%. You kind of know what what you're kind of capped at next year.
Lex Nepomuceno: That is not the case of non -advalorum. If the county puts on a $300 EMS fee. And the city puts on a $500 fire fee. Listen, that $800 is coming right to your tax bill and there is no discounts. And there it it is uncapped.
Lex Nepomuceno: So that's the major challenges that we're seeing right now with Amendment 3, and I think that's that's a thing that a lot of people are just missing or or don't understand. So... Would you describe that as a myth of this issue? that
Lex Nepomuceno: Passing this means stopping the growth of local government, and that's the intent of the voter. Obviously, the intent of the voter might be different than that, but that's what we already— Well, I mean, it does—I think it does stop—I mean, listen, it does stop the growth for some communities, right? There's no doubt about that. For some communities, it's existential, right? There are communities that will not survive this. They just don't have the tax base, even if they shifted to non -advalorum.
Lex Nepomuceno: You know, you have some small towns like Bowling Green and Hardy County that has seven police officers and um m one trash truck. where what What do they got cut? Right. So. For your small towns, it's it's existential because there's just not, even if they just did a per parcel fee, there's just not enough parcels.
Lex Nepomuceno: to generate the kind of revenue that they would have to replace. not without it being some extraordinary feat. So. soap This is going to push consolidation of cities. It's going to, not so much counties.
Lex Nepomuceno: but cities. Look, in Florida you're guaranteed a government. You are not guaranteed a city government. you're Guaranteed a county government. Because county is the floor of government. That's where your constitutional officers are, their your tax collector, your property appraiser.
Lex Nepomuceno: supervisor of elections, all of those are sheriff. all housed at the county level. And so what i what I expect to happen is a really difficult conversation with a lot of cities across the state of Florida. You have to make some really tough calls.
Lex Nepomuceno: Whether we they merge, whether they disincorporate, whether they just contract out all their services. This... Florida will look very different in 2032 if Amendment 3 passes.
Lex Nepomuceno: So what will you propose as a better solution? Obviously, that you wouldn't you wouldn't have time to put it on the bout or anything, but... You know, as as somebody who's deep understanding of policy in the state, what is a better solution to what Amendment 3 is trying to do? Yes. so So the fascinating thing is next year.
Lex Nepomuceno: is actually the the the year that we have in Florida. We have a unique... constitutional process. where we have the Taxing and Budget Commission, and it meets only every 20 years.
Lex Nepomuceno: And its job is to look at these types of issues for tax for overall for the taxes and and the budget. You'll have about three minutes. when you come back unique superpower which i don't actually agree with but they have it which is they can put things directly on the ballot And they have the time, effort, energy to study these things deeply.
Lex Nepomuceno: They can call in national experts. They can understand. They can do the modeling. We have short -circuited that process by throwing this on the ballot before they meet Which is...
Lex Nepomuceno: which Which is where... you know where i would have focused our efforts which is Put the right people on there. Let them study deeply. Let them understand the impacts and and go from there.
Lex Nepomuceno: Let's talk about like what our goals are. is our goal to encourage first -time homebuyers. Is our core our goal to encourage, you know, starter homes? What are we doing to do that? is our Our goal to preserve cities, is it it might not be to preserve cities, is our goal to protect police and fire.
Lex Nepomuceno: Well, that should be part of the conversation. This amendment amendment three was set up without specific goals identified I mean, other than reduced taxes. that was There was no other goals identified. and so Every other goal doesn't get met.
Lex Nepomuceno: in that conversation. Ending. creates these other externalities that many people haven't considered. So for me, it would be more about process. than it would be.
Lex Nepomuceno: about about specifically ah ah one policy that rules them all. No, I think... You've got to set your goals first. Then you've got to decide to analyze your alternatives. Model them. Select the best alternative. Then you put it on the ballot.
Lex Nepomuceno: Not. we We did this like I make spaghetti, which is like take a piece out, throw it against the wall, see if it sticks. And you know, if it's done or not. That's kind of the the current Amendment 3 policy.
Lex Nepomuceno: Okay, so. We're coming to the end of the segment here. if you Talking to voters directly, this show reaches Pinellas, Hillsborough, Pasco counties. what do you tell you What do you tell voters who are... on the fence regarding this issue. and ands and what they need to pay attention to.
Lex Nepomuceno: Sure. So if you're a renter, you get nothing out of this. So one third of Floridian's rent. There is no benefit for you. ah For the rest of Floridians, this is really a fee shift more than a tax cut.
Lex Nepomuceno: What you are going to find is that your communities if they're going to survive are going to have to find additional revenue. and they're going to find additional revenue in a variety of different ways The most obvious way is shifting to non -Avaloran fire or other, you know, storm water, other types of non -Avaloran fees.
Lex Nepomuceno: But they can also. shift to you know higher parking fees other other fees je you know You can pay to go use the park, those types of things.
Lex Nepomuceno: are all on the table as far as a fee shift. for for local governments. I would say also that... for For many. for many people.
Lex Nepomuceno: You're going to be shocked if you're a longtime homeowner. and some of it and you could actually pay more.
Lex Nepomuceno: But there's also nothing in here that protects police and fire. And communities are going to be hard pressed. to preserve 100 of their police and fire funding because The. If they do that, the choices are so draconian.
Lex Nepomuceno: on the back end if they choose not to. I mean, if they if they choose to preserve police and fire. So. Look, understand what your community is doing. Understand what the impacts are. Look at the general fund. Have a conversation.
Lex Nepomuceno: Listen, I've called for cities and counties to be brutally honest with their residents and they should be. Understand that this amendment doesn't just stop in 2020. eight or 2029. so the amendment goes from 150 to 250 but then every year after that it adjusts for inflation I don't know what inflation is going to be in 2030, 32. And if that happens.
Lex Nepomuceno: It could be 4%, 5 % inflation. That means additional 4%, 5 % cuts in that area of general of their of their budget. that are going to have to be addressed.
Lex Nepomuceno: So the the cuts keep coming. even if you feel like you've got the most efficient government you you you you have you can have. Great. So where do people find more information about this? I know that your organization has done a ton of research. and where do i Where do we send people to to learn more?
Lex Nepomuceno: Yeah, so I would say Florida Policy Institute does a lot of great work on this. I would also say Florida Tax Watch has done some great work on on this question. You can obviously look at the Florida Sheriff's Association, which has come out against it. The Florida Fire Association, many of them have come out against it. as well i think that's where i would go to have some confidence to really understand this but i think you know really Call your local elected officials. see you know talk to Talk to them. Understand what your county and city are saying about the cuts that need to happen in your community.
Lex Nepomuceno: Because the last thing we want is the things that you love about your community. having to be impacted by this and then and potentially understanding where the fee shifts are going forward. Great.
Lex Nepomuceno: Thank you so much Jeff for taking some time and sharing these insights with the show And for more information, they can... go to your website right the florida florida policy project Yep, that's correct.
Lex Nepomuceno: Alright. Thank you Jeff so much for your time. My pleasure. Thank you
Lex Nepomuceno: All right. Well, I hope you enjoyed the the balanced approach we did on Amendment 3 with the gubernatorial candidate Byron Donalds taking on the pro segment and Jeff Brandes with the Florida Policy Project talking about the...
Lex Nepomuceno: ah uh Issues against the Amendment 3. But some quick facts as we close out the show. Election is obviously next week, less than a week away.
Lex Nepomuceno: Tuesday, November 3rd. ah There's an open gubernatorial seat. So this is a big one. Governor DeSantis is term limited. So you've got Congressman Byron Donalds, the Republican nominee, running against.
Lex Nepomuceno: ah Former Congressman David Jolly, the Democrat nominee. So now going into that, I typically like to look at some of the polling, even though some of the polling is you know garbage. But what I do like to do is I look at the RCP average, which is the real clear politics averages. And ah for the gu the Florida race. you have the rcp average which is again the a real clear politics polling average has Donald's ahead by 5 .6%. And the reason why I like to go with the aggregates on this is because polls can be very biased based on who's conducting them, how they're asking questions, how they're getting input. A lot of times people are just not.
Lex Nepomuceno: um
Lex Nepomuceno: keen on answering phones at all because of all the telemarketers that are out there and and privacy issues and some of those things. so that immediately eliminates a big part of the demographic. So you have Donald's ahead by 5 .6, according to the RCP average for next week's election. ah For the united senate race United States Senate race, you've got Ashley Moody, the Republican nominee, versus Angie Dixon, the Democrat nominee. There you have the RCP average has...
Lex Nepomuceno: uh Ashley Moody ahead by 7 .3%. so a little bit of room there for her. And so we'll see how that holds up. In regards to here in Pinellas County, you've got Ana Polita Luna, which is in the dead heat with ah with Gray. And then Amendment 3, you've got...
Lex Nepomuceno: It requires 60 % of the vote. And that is also. uh trading at about 50 to 55 it needs 60 cents to 60 to pass All right. With that, thank you so much for joining us for another issue issue another day of the Keys to Tampa radio show. Next week, we're going to be joined by Hope Kennedy, who is the president and CEO of North Tampa Bay Chamber, and we'll talk about their areas for neighborhoods.
Lex Nepomuceno: Until then, thank you so much.
