Transcript
Speaker: Hello, everyone. Welcome back to another episode of East Got Game, an unofficial podcast about the NBL One East competition for 2023. My name is Jacinta from the Central Coast Crusaders. And with me for this episode, as always, is Locky France from the Sutherland Sharks. How are you, Locky? I'm doing great, Squint. How are you on this long weekend?
Speaker: Yeah, very good. Thanks. It's Monday today. However, it certainly still feels like a Sunday. And I almost forgot that we were due to record today. Oh, I'm very glad you remembered and you turned up. Yeah, priorities, priorities. How has your long weekend of no MBL1 East been? I mean, how did you compensate? Did you cope? Did you miss it? So I compensated for not going to live basketball by going to live soccer instead. Yeah.
Speaker: Just a different live sport. Went and watched some NPL, which was quite enjoyable. I think that's a fair switch, especially since you're getting ready to go to the FIFA Women's World Cup pretty soon. Yeah, yeah, World Cup in just over a month. It's going to be a very, very busy month for me because it overlaps with NBL One Finals.
Speaker: Oh, yeah. Yeah. So lucky, probably got your very good time management still. But yeah, clashing with MBL one East finals. And then we've also got the MBL one Nationals that's going to be from the 18th to the 20th of August. So yeah, you've got a big couple of months coming up. You're going to need a holiday from the holiday. I certainly will.
Speaker: All right, so this episode, you know, being the long weekend and there's no rounds and where next weekend we'll be going into round 13 of 18 for the 2023 and BL1 East season. So what we thought we'd do instead is do a little bit of a finals forecast for both the men's and women's competition. So this episode, we're going to focus on the men's finals forecast. And just a disclaimer, Lockie has done all of the work for this episode.
Speaker: He has done a very big deep dive into the current standings, the mathematical predictions, and what Locky has referred to on our cheat sheet as bankers, which I'm sure will make more sense when we get into it. So the idea of this episode is we're going to go through, for the men's, we're going to go through the top four teams as it stands after round 12. Then we're going to go the teams that are standing at fifth and 11th.
Speaker: and try and see if we can predict or at least bring some considerations to our audience about who is going to make that elusive top eight for the season. How does that sound lucky? Are you ready? Are you strapped in? I am ready to go. You know I love this stuff.
Speaker: Yes, so you certainly do. And I'm very, very appreciative of it because when it comes to wins, losses, predictions and mathematical predictions, it goes way over my head. You're doing us all a solid. So as we mentioned before, we're going to kick off now with a top four from the men's competition first. And sitting pretty with a record of 17 wins and one loss is the center of excellence.
Speaker: Locky, your mathematical prediction is 21 and 1 by the time the round to 18 wraps up. Talk me through this.
Speaker: Okay, so mathematical prediction is just all based on what's happened so far. So the numbers that have happened so far. So it can't predict what who is going to play who. And what I like to do is split the games that they have remaining into three sections. So you have games against your top teams, games against the teams that are 50 -50 to make the finals. And then your bankers are the games against teams that aren't going to make the finals or probably won't make the finals. And those are the games that you have to make sure you win. There's no point in
Speaker: jagging a win against Inner West or North or COE if you go and lose to Hornsby and Manly.
Speaker: So you've got, you know, those are the games that you need to, not only you need to win, but if you're looking at another team, you have to assume they're going to win those games. You know, you don't want to look at hills and go, oh, they're seven and seven. If they lose to all these teams down the bottom, we could beat them. No, you can't do that. So if we look at Center of Excellence, they've got games against Manly and Central Coast to come, and then they also have hills and comets. So they only have four games left, and those are all games
Speaker: they should win quite comfortably. But I think the question for them comes, not in the regular season, but in the finals. Are all their players going to be here when finals come around and, you know, they have to win each week, you know, when you can't slip up? Is that when they are going to lose some players?
Speaker: Yeah, I certainly agree. We've definitely talked about throughout this podcast series about the likes of Alex Tui, Ben Henschel, who have been the standouts for COE all season. And Alex Tui is due to go to Gonzaga. And we know that a couple of the female athletes in the women's comp are due to go to college as well very, very soon, which we'll get into on our women's episode. And when I say very soon, you know, today recording on Monday, the 12th of June,
Speaker: They're going to go, you know, some of the college girls are already starting to go within the next two weeks. So it's going to be really interesting to see when Tui heads overseas. But also Ben Henshaw, he's signed to be with the Wildcats for the next NBL season. And I know that the NBL starts in September. So you've got to ask the question, when does he report to preseason camp for the Wildcats? Have you got any inkling as to when preseason for NBL officially starts?
Speaker: I don't, but I know they want to, the reason they have NBL one nationals when they are is because they want all the NBL players to be able to play NBL one. So I would say that if Henshaw wants to stick around and he's allowed to, he should be there throughout, but it, you know, clubs can pull rank now that he signed a club can pull rank and say, we want you, you know,
Speaker: I don't know exactly how the contracts shake out, but if the club can say, we don't want you to risk yourself for NBL1, he'd probably have to listen. Yeah, no, that's exactly right, because I think one of the biggest criticisms, I mean, to be fair, NBL1 nationals, we've only had our first one last year, because in fairness, waiting for all of the states to commit to the NBL1 competition format,
Speaker: So we've only had one Nationals and there's always going to be teething issues when you put on something of that scale for the first time. But one of the biggest criticisms was that there were so many NBL and WNBL players who were standouts in the NBL One competition throughout the year and they didn't have the opportunity to play at Nationals. So some people felt like it was a bit of a misrepresentation or perhaps a little bit lackluster.
Speaker: in that sense. For example, the Gold Coast Rollers had Jason Cady. And the other gosh, what's his name starts with T. I don't know why his mind his name has slipped my mind is from Tasmania went to St. Mary's.
Speaker: Tanner Krebs. Tanner Krebs. Oh my gosh. I had his. I could describe him. I could not, I could not word find his name. The likes of them, you know, they played for Gold Coast Rollers and then were unfortunate, you know, couldn't play NBL one. So that makes sense that they've considered this date in August. And looking at the WNBL key dates, it's the 11th of September is when their preseason starts. So I imagine that the NBL will be starting a lot earlier than that.
Speaker: So COE, though, they do have some new scholarship holders that have come into the fold, as we've also mentioned in previous episodes, a lot of new inductees in May. And I feel that they've probably come into the program at a really good time. Do you feel like that was enough time for them to get used to the program and to MBL One East to be able to make an impact heading into finals?
Speaker: Oh, 100 percent. Yeah, I think, you know, they've still got the guys like Kai Savage, especially in the guys gaming around that time. They've already got three games under their belt. They've got four more. And then if the reported finals format is what it is, they'll they've already cemented a top four spot. So they'll have a second chance in finals. So, yeah, they'll have eight, nine games under their belt by the time they play a semifinal game, considering how good they've looked so far.
Speaker: Yeah, absolutely. With some of their shooting percentages, I mean, to be expected when you're training every day, but where with some of the shooting percentages. Yeah, I think they've certainly booked themselves a ticket to the big dance.
Speaker: Now, moving on to Inner West Bulls, who are sitting second on the men's ladder, and their win -loss record is 12 and 2 after round 12. Your mathematical prediction, Locky, is 20 and 2, which, you know, is also pretty healthy. Shaking your head now, no? The mathematics prediction is 20 and 2, but that relies on them beating North both times in those two games they have against each other late in the season.
Speaker: And I think that is going to be split. Yeah. You know what? I think I am going to agree with you. I think it's going to be split as well, which I mean, it's great for us as for fans because it just makes it more interesting. Um, but, uh, some of the big questions around that for me, you've got some big questions relating to inner West in terms of these, um, upcoming games. So do you want to take us through the upcoming games that they have? You mentioned North twice.
Speaker: So they do have North twice, they play Newcastle as well, which given the standards of both teams, I'd say would be a win for them. And then they have Penrith twice, Hornsby, Central Coast and Bankstown are their other five games, which you would expect them to win. So mathematically 20 and two, I'm saying 19 and three, especially, uh, if North have a full roster featuring Junior Medut at any stage.
Speaker: Yeah, correct. The big question mark around Junior Madut because he hasn't been playing for quite a few rounds now. I did notice that when he stopped playing was around the time that he had signed with Tasmanian jack jumpers. So I wasn't too sure if he missed a round just to go down to Tassie and you know, meet the administration and officially sign the dotted line.
Speaker: But then there was room that he also had an injury and he was nursing that and he was due to come back last round, but it doesn't look like he has. So hopefully after this long weekend, he's had enough rest and rehab so he can return. But yes, I think also big question mark around Junior Madut for those two games between Inner West Bulls and Norths. I think also with the 50 -50 you've got against Newcastle, will be dependent on Miles Cherry.
Speaker: But also we've got to remember that Blake Morrow sustained a back injury against Illawarra Hawks in one of the most recent rounds. So hopefully this long weekend and the rest has also been kind to Blake Morrow. From what we've heard, he was in quite a bit of pain and it looks like a pretty serious injury. So we're hoping he's okay. But I think that's also going to be an X factor, especially going into those two Norse games.
Speaker: Definitely, yes. I mean, the numbers, yeah, I mean, in the West, they are a winner ahead of North at the moment, but a lot could change between now and then.
Speaker: Yes. And interestingly, with the split, you've also made a good note that perhaps the result could flip who finishes second and third. Because as we mentioned, Inner West are currently second after round 12, but North are currently third. So that split is going to be really super important to see final placings. And it would also decide who would, if they do finish second, third, it would decide who would host the first round of finals game between those two very teams, second versus third.
Speaker: Yeah, correct. We all know how busy you can get at the Bear Cave. Do you know what the venue is called at Inner West Bulls? Have they got a venue name like the Bear Cave? What can we call it? The Bull Pit? I think it's, is it called the Bull Pen or something like that? Maybe not the Bull Pen. Must be close to. I think I've seen something around. The name just escapes me at the current time.
Speaker: So in the men's competition North are sitting third with a win -loss record of 13 and 3 and your possible mathematical prediction is 17 and 5. So take us through, it looks like they've actually got a tougher draw for the rest of the round. Take us through that lockie.
Speaker: They certainly do, so the only team they play that isn't is either can't or is unlikely to make finals is Penrith. They've got Canberra, Albury -Wedonga, Newcastle and Comets. And they also have Sutherland and those two games against inner west. We've also already mentioned the Junior Madrid factor, but they just have a lot of tricky games.
Speaker: Games that, you know, Canberra, Albury -Wodonga, Newcastle, Comets, if they can get out of this losing streak, even Sutherland, just annoying games, you know, just have the potential to trip you up. Yeah, yeah, definitely a good point, a good way to put it, potential to trip up a team. It's one of those
Speaker: those games where you don't want to take any risks. The likes of the Canberra Gunners and the Aubrey Woodonga Bandits are certainly on the rise in the last couple of weeks as well. I mean, both Canberra and Aubrey Woodonga beating the teams like Comets.
Speaker: So they're certainly peaking at the right time and getting it together at the right time. Newcastle, you know, question mark on Miles Cherry and Jacob Doricot. While he didn't play a lot of minutes, it's still someone that's really well experienced and been part of that program for a long time. He has had to exit the season because he's got a job with Sturt in South Australia. So very congratulations to Jacob Doricot, though. That's really cool, Sturt's a great club.
Speaker: So yeah, I agree. I think the Canberra -Aubrey -Wedonga games for Norse can be really touch and go depending on personnel, especially because those two teams are on the rise. Sutherland and Inner West twice, yeah. So I think they really have a tough road ahead to make sure that they stay in that top four.
Speaker: Yeah, I think they have enough of a gap between themselves and it's Canberra in fifth at nine and six to stay top four. It's whether they can maintain that third spot and not have to go to probably, I guess at this stage, we'd probably say most likely COE at this stage, which is where they'd be traveling in the first round if they finish fourth.
Speaker: Well, and you know, they have beaten COE before. They have. The one time to beat them this season was north. But yeah, big question. Can they do it again? Very true. Yes. Well, I think, yes, the road to the championship as it stands does go through the center of excellence, but we'll see how that shakes out.
Speaker: And then rounding off the top four in the men's competition is Sutherland Sharks. Their win -loss record is 11 -4. Your mathematical prediction is 16 -6. Looking at what competition they have ahead, quite a few 50 -50s.
Speaker: But again, I think the 50 -50s for me, that's the one that's got me shaking in my basketball boots. Yeah, so they've got Hornsby and Manly, teams they've already defeated quite handsomely this season. They have to go to Illawarra, they have to go to Maitland, they have to go to Albury -Wodonga, and they have to go to Canberra.
Speaker: So all their 50 -50s are away. And then they also have a game against Norse, which is this weekend. So yes, mathematically only losing two more games, but I'm not sure that the numbers shake out quite as you would think. I wouldn't be surprised to see them drop
Speaker: two of those 50 -50s. Currently, I've only got them dropping one to Canberra. I wouldn't be surprised if they dropped two. I'm sorry to my Sutherland boys for saying that. And may not be the Canberra one they lose. They might drop to Illawarra and Maitland or Illawarra and Obruadonga.
Speaker: I know Ella Warra will be out for revenge after the Anzac Day game. Yes, maybe 15 and seven, although 16 and six definitely still on the cards. And, you know, they could go on a mad run away and scoop all those 50 -50 games. And you said before that, you know, there is a strong chance of those four 50 -50 games that they will drop one to Canberra and who out of Aubrey Wodonga
Speaker: Maitland and Illawarra, do you feel like they're most likely to drop a game against? I would say rivalry, Freeway Cup, I think Illawarra is the one they're most likely. Davo Hickey will be absolutely frothing to get revenge on Sutherland. In that game, who's likely to match up on Davo Hickey, given, you know, Locky Hartchison will be back? You never know. When Davo Hickey goes off, you might have to do it by committee.
Speaker: Honestly, you might have to throw different players at him. Yeah, or perhaps even some kind of zone or matchup zone to really keep him out of the key. Because as we saw from the last round when they played against Newcastle, he had a highlight reel of where he's beaten four or nearly all five Newcastle defenders to get a dunk. So it's going to be very hard to contain him nonetheless. I'm just trying to think of the matchups as well between the Sharks and Maitland. And I'm thinking, you know, Sharks are
Speaker: are pretty good on the inside, but some are Maitland. So yeah, I think, I think that Maitland Sharks game is going to be really, really tight, given that there's some very close match ups. It's come down to the depth of the bench. And it's also, it's not just four away 50 -50, like tight games, you know, those tricky games. I think that's probably better than calling them 50 -50s, it's kind of tricky games. They're all a way to regional teams.
Speaker: like country teams, sorry, Metro teams, but vast majority of the time, country teams have got you covered when it comes to the crowds. Oh, yeah. Oh, yeah. And you know, going up down to Illawarra and Maitland in the middle of June, July, and Aubrey, it's going to be and Canberra, it's going to be freezing. I imagine it's going to be colder than Sutherland. So truly out of your comfort zone. Yeah, it's not a run home I would particularly like and
Speaker: Yeah, and especially if Canberra can get that win over Sutherland, that could change top four projections. Absolutely. So now we're going to move on to fifth to 11th place. As we know, they are going to take a top eight for the finals this season. So fifth to 11, we're going to have a chat, mostly because it is really, really tight. I don't think we could have stuck to just fifth to eighth.
Speaker: because the men's ladder is really, really tight and unpredictable as you've probably gotten the gist of so far in this episode. So sitting pretty at fifth is Canberra. The Gunners, you know, one of our very early episodes was about what's going on with the Gunners because they didn't have an ideal start to the season for this year, especially with a lot of
Speaker: focus on the Gunners being the inaugural MBL1 East winners and doing so well at MBL1 Nationals. But they've made their way up to fifth. So they've been progressing really well. They're starting to click at the right time. Their win -loss record after round 12 is 9 and 6. And you've given a mathematical prediction of 15 and 7. So their home run to the end of the season also looks a little bit tricky.
Speaker: But I'll let you take us through it, Lucky. Okay, so I just want to make the point that just because these are the fifth to 11th group, it doesn't mean some of these teams can't make the top four. It's just I feel these teams need to, their first step needs to be to make sure of their top eight spot and then they can worry about.
Speaker: the top four, if they're still in with a shot. But yeah, so Canberra, they've got Manly, and then they've got Illawarra twice, Hills and Aubrey Wodonga, and then they also play North and Sutherland. Illawarra, I've got them beating Illawarra twice. I don't think that's going to happen. I think they will drop one to Illawarra if Illawarra are at full strength.
Speaker: Well, maybe if they only have one player out, you know, we've seen them, if they've had Pagotto out or Hickey out or Walker out, they've still done pretty well. But when they've had two or three of them out, that's when they've struggled. If they pull that win off against Sutherland that we've mentioned, it is going to be.
Speaker: It's going to be massive, massive for them. Oh, they're a win ahead of everyone else. They're nine and six. No one else has more than eight wins below them. So there's not a team sitting there on nine and seven or something like that. If they can pull that win off against Sutherland and take care of business in the rest of the games.
Speaker: it is going to come right down to the wire and it will just keep the pressure on Sutherland and maybe Norse, depending on what happens this weekend, if Norse fall back into the pack. And like you said, Canberra nine and six, but would they start one and four, one and three, one and four? Yeah, yeah. I think it was one and four, unfortunately. Yeah, it wasn't a very ideal start to the season at all. But yeah, obviously, you know, reigning coach of the year, coach Peter Herrick has found a way
Speaker: Um, I think it probably took them a while to get some rotations sorted out in a few issues with, um, combinations. And now we're going to go all the way up into Maitland, uh, who are sitting six with a win -loss record of eight and six possible mathematical prediction, 14 and eight. But the bankers are Central Coast, Manly Waringa and Panerith, which I agree with. They're 50 fifties. Uh, take me through these 50 fifties. You got Comets.
Speaker: Illawarra, Newcastle, Aubrey Wodonga. Yeah. So I've got them beating Comets and Illawarra and Aubrey Wodonga losing to Newcastle. And then they also have a game against Sutherland, which I've got them losing. Probably, they'll probably shake out three and two in the end, either way, maybe two and three across those five games.
Speaker: What they can't do is what they almost did against Hornsby, almost drop or actually do drop a game to a team down the bottom. Because I think that there's three teams currently sitting eight and six, and then Illawarra seven and seven. If you go dropping a game like that, to Central Coast, Melio Ringo or Penrith, a game that you know you should win, those other three teams that are right behind you are going to be
Speaker: all over you so quickly. Basically, they just, Bayland are in real, just take care of business state at the moment. Yeah, there's certainly a team who have the talent to make the top eight, but I feel like they definitely fall into complacency time to time. So definitely that game against Hornsby, whether they were complacent or whether they got into the bad habit of just playing the style of the other team rather than playing their own style and sticking to the game plan.
Speaker: Because I feel like coming up against someone like Penrith, you have a lot of young players, a lot of emerging talent to play a particular style. I think if Maitland were to fall back and play Penrith's game instead of their own, Penrith could be a banker that they drop. Penrith, they went to Albury. They've already been to Albury and won this year, if I remember correctly.
Speaker: Yeah, I think you're right. I think you're right. And one thing I noticed watching Penrith a couple of weeks ago when they came to Sutherland was a team's got absolutely zero quit in them. They made a game of it against Sutherland when most teams would not have been able to. Like you said, maybe a bit of complacency fall into those bad habits. Sutherland did a bit of that as well.
Speaker: And that's something where a team like Penrith could really, really be annoying there and all of a sudden you've dropped a game where you thought you should have the win. Yeah, I agree. And I'm just trying to see what the previous result between Maitland and Penrith. It doesn't look like they've actually played each other yet. Maitland? No, they only play Penrith once this season.
Speaker: But then, see, this is the thing with Maitland. They had a tight game against Hills, one round where they lost by six. And then they had a close game against COE, the following round, and lost by 11. And then lost to inner West Bulls, the round after that by six. So they're always in touch of greatness, but then they're also in touch with some of the bottom two. They really need to be disciplined and stick to their game plan. I don't think they can go in wishy -washy.
Speaker: Maitland and when we talk next about Newcastle are probably the two most at risk for underachieving this season. The next position which is seventh or I guess tied because everyone's kind of tied from now on so I'm not even going to bother with positions. But Newcastle also has a win -loss record of eight and six and possible mathematical prediction with 14 and eight after around 18.
Speaker: So Bankers, Hornsby, Corringuy, Panareth, Bankstown. 50 -50s, you've got Comets, Illawarra and Maitland. Top teams, they've still got Inner West and North to go. Newcastle and Comets, even without Cherrick, Miles, Cherry, do you think it's gettable?
Speaker: Yeah, I think Newcastle can beat, yeah, can beat Comets without Cherry. Only because Comets are currently in this slide. Comets record was six and eight, but the losses had not come in a row. I'd probably be swinging that closer to Comets, but I feel like Comets have to play Centre of Excellence twice, Centre of Excellence and Maitland before they play Newcastle, so it's going to be tough for them to get back in form before they even play that Newcastle game.
Speaker: Yeah. And I think it's really interesting that for quite a few teams, you know, we're going to be around 13 next weekend and they haven't, not everyone has played each other at least once yet. Because I'm pretty sure Newcastle beat Comets last time. Lost to Inner West at home by two. Uh, so that was another tight game. See, but then they only beat Bankstown by four. Really close games against, uh, against North. Well, actually they beat North.
Speaker: Yes, they did. They beat Norse, so that's a big win for Newcastle. That's right. That's when both Newcastle teams beat Norse, I think, that round. Yes, that was a huge, huge week for Newcastle. Yes. But then, unfortunately, the next week they lost, you know, by 30 or 29 points to Illawarra. But again, that was the game. I think Miles Cherry
Speaker: Yeah, so you got injured like four minutes into that game against Civil War. Yes, that's right. Wow. So, OK, so they're not an easy road for them either. And now we come to the third team in the men's competition who have a win -loss record of eight and six, which is the Hills Hornets. And it looks like here, Lockie, they might have a few more. Compared to the other teams that are at eight and six being Maitland and Newcastle, they've got a pretty sweet draw as it stands.
Speaker: They do, so they play Bankstown twice, Penrith, Central Coast, Hornsby Keringai, and Manly. So despite the fact that I have them down as probably losing to Canberra and Centre of Excellence, if they can just take care of business against those lower teams and get those six wins.
Speaker: That gets them to 14 wins, even without looking at, you know, stealing a win against a top team. But Hills, you know, they started slowly, went on a massive winning streak and have then fallen back a little bit since they lost that game to Sutherland. So.
Speaker: Which hills team are we going to see? That's right. It kind of all really clicked for them in around like round four or round five, I'd say. They got that really big win, that 40 point win against Penrith. And then they seem to really kick into gear after that. You know, they also beat North's during one of the rounds. They ended up getting the split on Newcastle, which was very handy for them, I think, and then going on to beat Maitland. So they've already beaten the two teams that are sitting
Speaker: above them on the ladder purely, you know, they're only above them purely on percentage. And then they also beat a very strong Illawarra. So hills are definitely going in an upward trajectory. It looks like here that North actually got the split on them in the most recent round. So yeah, I feel like they are of the three teams sitting at eight and six.
Speaker: I think they're the dark horse of the three and especially like you said, they've got so many games that they can just eat. Six games that they can bank. If they turn up each day. If they turn up each year, that's right. And sometimes their roster changes a lot. I noticed that a couple of their key players aren't there every week for whatever various reasons. So sometimes obviously missing your key players and your most dominant players are always going to hurt.
Speaker: But it's also that consistency as well, trying to make sure you have the same starters, the same rotations. I think that overall chemistry makes a big difference in the long run, especially getting into the tail end of the season. But of these six games that we've considered as bankers, do you see any of these six
Speaker: that hills could potentially drop. I think it's tough to play. I've played Bankstown twice. It's tough to play a team twice in quick succession always. You do see it a little bit. Sometimes they'll lose the first one and then expect it to lose the second one and come back out and win that. Honestly,
Speaker: I feel their potential slip up every time they play. I mean, we've seen Hornsby lose three games by two points or less, and I think like six games by less than double digits. So teams are always going to be able to come in and swoop in and make it very difficult for you. I think they'll get five. I don't think they'll win all six. It would take a mammoth, you know, streak to win or to win six of eight.
Speaker: Yeah, I think Hornsby is certainly due for a win. But if your teams like Hornsby, Bankstown, Manly, Central Coast, obviously not going to make finals. This is the tail end of the season where you can still play your hardest and you have nothing to lose and you have the opportunity to disrupt the top end of the ladder and make someone else's life difficult. Well, I can tell you, and I think anybody who's been in a team that hasn't made finals can say that at the end of the season when you don't make finals,
Speaker: and you look at the results and go, that team, we beat them and that's why they didn't make finals. And there's no better feeling than ruining someone else's season.
Speaker: It's almost a bit of a spiteful championship in its own right, really. It really is. Okay, so slipping a little bit further down the ladder, we've got Illawarra at seven and seven. Possible mathematical prediction is 10 and 12. Really interesting. I mean, it looks like that they're starting to click again now that Davo Hickey's back after having some time away for about four rounds. It looks like they're clicking again. I mean, they didn't have Noah Pagotto for like three rounds as well while he was overseas.
Speaker: Um, I feel like there was one other player was at Harrison, Harry Morris, Harry Morris as well. So it looks like he's back. So it looks like they're coming back to full strength again. They haven't had Lucas Walker for most of the time. Cause he's been on national duties with three X three. I feel like if they're going to come at good, full strengths, there's a lot of, uh, games on here that they can win. And, and you know, if he'll slip up, then Illawarra ready to take their spot.
Speaker: Certainly. Well, it wouldn't surprise me if Illawarra ran the table and finished fifth or tied with Canberra or, you know, fifth or sixth. I think you can throw the numbers out the window for what has happened as far as team, because they were five and two on Anzac Day. Then they had Daevo Hickey out for a month.
Speaker: And so they've been two and five since that time, just rolled Newcastle. So, you know, the winds have been since Hickey's come back. Let me just break it down. So I've got them beating Bankstown, Penrith and Central Coast. And then they have games against Canberra, Maitland, Newcastle, and then Canberra again and Sutherland.
Speaker: There's no way they are losing all four of those games to Canberra, Maitland, Newcastle and Canberra. I don't even think, I don't know if they'll lose two. They might go three and one or four and oh in those four games. And then the Sutherland game, I've already pinned that as the one Sutherland should be most wary about. Particularly if Illawarra are, like I said earlier, if they're within one player, if they're within a Lucas Walker of being full strength.
Speaker: they could be 10 and 12, they could be 14 and 8. I really think this Illawarra team of full strength is dangerous for everyone. And so begs the question, have they left it too much too late? Possibly. And I don't mean in terms of making finals, I think they'll do enough and one of the teams on 8 and 6 will
Speaker: lose enough games or just between those eight and six and nine and six teams playing each other, they'll lose enough games. But will they put themselves in a position where they finish seventh or eighth?
Speaker: and they're on the road four weeks in a row. You know, they have to travel to Canberra in week one, then they have to travel to Inner West or Norse week two, and then they play a semifinal against whoever, COE or Sutherland, and then a grand final. That would probably be too much for them to get over the line. But if they could get a fifth or sixth and get a home final in week one, even if it's an elimination game, then I think they might be, you know, give themselves a chance.
Speaker: perhaps have bitten off a little bit too more than they can chew, finding themselves in this position. But as the season has been already full of excitement and unpredictabilities, I'm sure it's not going to be so straightforward going into finals time. And we've still got so much basketball to play. We've still got five rounds. We've still got some people to play for the first time. We've still got some double -headed. So there's just too many variables to be confident with what's going to happen. That's why we like it.
Speaker: Yeah, and also that game, that first game against Canberra is actually this coming weekend. So that will be, that will probably pretty much say whether they can finish fifth. If they lose that, they're probably not going to finish fifth. If they win it, then all bets are off.
Speaker: Very interesting. And now coming in the last couple of teams that we will cover for this men's finals forecasting. Technically sitting at 10th at the moment is the Aubrey Wodonga Bandits with a win -loss record of seven and eight.
Speaker: possible mathematical prediction of finishing the season 10 and 12. Probably quite a bit of a mixed bag as well for Aubrey Woodonga coming into the end of the season. Also another team that have started to strike at the right time. So you've got here is Bankers, Central Coast, and Bankstown, which I think is pretty much guaranteed. 50 -50s, Comets, Canberra, and Maitland. So talk to me about those ones, Lockie.
Speaker: All right, well, uh, comets, we got them beating comets, uh, comets on the slide at the moment, uh, or sitting, actually sitting below Aubrey Woodonger at this stage at six and eight. Uh, got them losing to both Canberra and Maitland. They have been on a bit of an upswing, so I wouldn't be surprised to see them get one of those.
Speaker: And then if they got one of those, that would take their prediction to 11 and 11. And then that Bandits crowd can get behind them against Sutherland maybe. Maybe they get the win there and that could get them the 12 wins. I think you're going to need 12 wins to get finals. 10 wins won't cut it.
Speaker: No, 10 definitely won't. 11 with how close it is might not either. Their game against North is on the road as well, so they won't have that. But I think, yeah, I think 11 and 11 and maybe they can maybe get 12 -10. They'd find it tough getting any more than that, I think. 13 and 9 would mean one loss for the rest of the season, and they do have a pretty tricky draw.
Speaker: Like we said, they are definitely looking better now than they have in previous weeks. So it was interesting for me is that they play comets again and they already beat comets at home. And that was when Wani Swaka Le Bulloch played and had a great game, but they still beat comets with Wani Swaka. So they got to play comets again. I don't know. I don't think Wani Swaka has actually played since that round.
Speaker: Albury Wodonga haven't played Canberra since round one. Both teams have gone through their own journeys since round one. So that's going to be a real test. I remember that round one game. We were both thinking two championship contenders having a great game to open up the season and then they both slid and now they're both sort of on the comeback.
Speaker: Aubrey Wodonga certainly have the size to match up with Canberra, but I'm not too sure if they've still got the defensive prowess to limit Glenn Morrison from the Gunners. I think he'll just have a field day. Aubrey Wodonga men really have to step up their defense, I think. This is why I feel like they can beat Maitland because Maitland can sometimes be quite hot and cold. They're also on a, you know, they're inconsistent. Aubrey Wodonga have been improving the last couple of weeks. I think that one.
Speaker: I reckon Albury might get that one. You're saying 13 and 9 is a chance for the bandits? Yeah, I think it is. Yeah, I've got hope. I've got hope for the bandits. I've got hope. It would be very, very fun to see 13 and 9 bandits. That would really put a cat amongst the pigeons if they were able to.
Speaker: Oh, for sure. And, you know, any home game, especially finals games at Albury, Wodonga, at the Laura Jackson Sports Centre, the roof just goes off. So it would be an amazing atmosphere. If Albury wasn't so far away, I'd consider going to watch one of the finals games at home just for the atmosphere. But, yeah, not for me. Well, I travel from Sutherland. You travel from the Central Coast. But we have done the odd Seeball road trip down to Albury back in the bad old days.
Speaker: Because I'm not driving, no thank you.
Speaker: Not even in a, in a coach full of people. Comet's last one. Uh, they are currently sitting at 11th on the ladder. Their win -loss record is six and eight possible prediction of finishing the season with nine and 13. They've got bankers of Central Coast, Bankstown, Hornsby, Corringuy. Um, they haven't played Central Coast in quite a while actually. So I think in terms of mentality and confidence, Comets will have the edge over Crusaders.
Speaker: possibly also over Hornsby, Coringa, but I don't know, Bankstown, Bankstown and Comets, I don't know. The first question before we, well, I'll go through the teams just to be sure. So as you mentioned, the bankers, Central Coast Bankstown, Hornsby, but so they've got Maitland, Newcastle, Albury, Redonga, and then COE and North's. And they're already six and eight. But the question is, regardless of who they're playing,
Speaker: They've lost, what is it, seven on the trot? They were six and one. How are they going to pull themselves out of this losing streak? They've brought in Juanis Huacal or Bullock. He went off and they still lost. They brought in Indiana Faithful as well. He's just had the one game. So probably too early to judge. Been adding players, but they can't get a win.
Speaker: Yeah, and they've got, you know, they've got a couple of imports that, you know, they've got great coaching stuff. I'm just not too sure what is missing for this comments team to guarantee some more wins. Like you said, brilliant start to the season, but it's just.
Speaker: gone underperforming for the rest of the season, which has been a bit of a shame. They've got COE and North coming up. I can't see them beating COE and North. 50 -50s, Maitland, Newcastle, Aubrey. I think Aubrey is going to beat them again because they have already once.
Speaker: Maitland and Newcastle. I mean, again, Newcastle, question mark on Cherry. If Newcastle have Cherry, considering that that Newcastle team beat Norse, if Newcastle have Cherry when they play Comets, I reckon Newcastle will definitely win. Maitland, depends who you get on the day. Yeah, that is so true.
Speaker: But have they played Maitland before? Got the biggest screen on the smallest desk and I still can't comment. No, they have not yet played Maitland. Yes, no. So that's going to be interesting too. They only play each other the 17th of June. Oh, next round they play Maitland. Wow, so that will be a... Yeah, there's a couple of games coming up that are quite interesting for final spots. I think that's... Canberra Bessers, Illawarra, Sutherland North and as you just mentioned, Commerce Mustangs.
Speaker: Think that's going to be, I reckon next round, round 13, Comets Mustangs and Comets are hosting. I reckon whoever wins that game, it's going to be a complete turning point for their season. Ooh. Yeah. I reckon if Maitland... Spin with the call. If Comets lose next round against Maitland, they're done. Ah. Yep. There we go. I'm going to call it now.
Speaker: I'll probably get cancelled for it, but you know, I'll take that risk. Like you said before, Lockie, you're predicting that to make the top eight in the men's competition this year, you've got to win 12 games and they have only won six with plenty of games up their sleeve, but a tough road ahead. Unfortunately, I don't see Comets making top eight as it stands.
Speaker: No, so my mathematic predictions have eights finishing 14 and eight, but I think Illawarra, Aubrey Wodonga, and maybe even Comets are gonna steal enough games that'll bring that number down a bit, but it won't get down to 11, unless there becomes some crazy tie between a few teams for 11. But I think 12 is what you're going to need.
Speaker: And it is certainly the back end, or not the back end, but this middle ground of the men's ladder that is the most interesting from Maitland, Newcastle, Hills, Illawarra, Albury, that mix. I think there is going to be the biggest movement in that mix because even during the season we've seen Newcastle Falcons go from tenths to fifths within a couple of rounds.
Speaker: and then back from second and bound down to six or something like that as well. Yes, now they're back to same win -loss record as Maitland and Hills, but sitting in the middle based on for and against percentage. Very unpredictable, very tight, but at least one thing's guaranteed is that COE will be there, so that's all. Yes, COE have not only guaranteed their spot, I've actually guaranteed
Speaker: top four already. How it helps that you've played four more games than some other teams? If you take them out of it, because they have played 18 games, I think the next most amount of games played is 15 after 18. And that's the like of Sutherland, Gunners, Aubrey Woodonga and Manly and Hornsby. So I think when he takes the OE out of it, because they've played more games, it still begs to be quite a tight competition.
Speaker: Yeah. So we'd love to know some of our loyal listeners to eScott game. We'd love to know what your final eight predictions are. Um, so maybe just tweet NBL one East and let's start the conversation on, on Twitter. Um, cause, uh, you know, NBL one East, as we know, probably doesn't get talked about enough. So maybe we, it's up to us to start the conversation. Are we going to do our own predictions? Yeah, why not? Go for it. All right. Well.
Speaker: I think the top four is going to stay as is the top, same top four teams. I think it's going to stay in a West second, North third. I think, you know, I'm going to say, yeah, they'll split games, but even it comes down to tight in a West, we'll get the split.
Speaker: for the season series, then Sutherland in fourth. We'll have Canberra will make the top eight. Illawarra will do enough to make the top eight. Hills will take advantage of all those lower teams they play to secure a spot. I want to say Newcastle over Maitland. I'm going to say that Myles Cherry is going to get better and he's going to get Newcastle into the finals over Maitland and Maitland just to miss out by the barest of margins and Aubrey Wodonga.
Speaker: Yeah, okay. Mine's pretty similar. I feel like, you know, I'm going to agree, to be honest. I think the top four will, I think the top five will stand as is being COE, Inner West, North, Sutherland, Gunners. Oh, I mean, if Illawarra make a late run, I don't know if it's mathematically possible they can come in at six.
Speaker: Yeah, they definitely could. They've played enough of those teams they're up against and Newcastle still have to play Maitland as well. If Illawarra beat Newcastle and Maitland, the loser of Newcastle and Maitland would automatically have eight losses. But then Hills have got a really easy run. I'm going to say Hills at six, Illawarra seventh, Newcastle eight. There we go. That was tough. Listen back to this in five or six weeks. Listen back to this in six weeks time and hear how wrong we are.
Speaker: Yeah, that's the fun bit too. We couldn't admit being wrong. We'll take responsibility for it. But yes, now that we've predicted our top eight after round 12, and as the latter stands after round 12, that will now wrap up the episode for our finals forecast for the men's MBO1 East 2023 series. Keep an eye out because we're going to do the same thing for the women's, but as for the men's, bye for now.
