SI315: Preparing for a Pivotal Time in Global Markets ft. Cem Karsan
In this week’s episode, Cem Karsan joins Alan Dunne to discuss the interplay between market flows and global macro developments as we enter a pivotal time of year for markets. They explore the potentially favourable setup for equities in the coming weeks, driven by flow dynamics and dealer positioning, while considering how recent policy moves in China could support the near-term bullish outlook. As the U.S. election approaches, Cem outlines how different outcomes could impact policy, the economy, and geopolitics—ultimately shaping the post-election market landscape. Despite recent U.S. inflation data showing lower prints, Karsan reaffirms his view of a structurally inflationary period ahead and shares key trades that could capitalize on this outlook in the current market environment.
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Episode TimeStamps:
01:17 - Industry performance update
05:36 - Seasonality in markets
17:49 - Are China losing the ability to protect their assets?
21:44 - A dangerous path for Chinese assets
25:36 - A structural downtrend in inflation?
35:30 - Is the market looking through the rate cuts?
39:37 - Trump vs. Harris - how will it impact markets?
46:19 - A global conflict perspective
50:40 - How the election might impact commodities
52:06 - Migration policy and its effect on inflation
53:57 - How markets might trade right after the election is over
57:13 - Dangerous periods ahead?
