Transcript
Caleb Call: Welcome into the Holy War pod, Caleb and Ben. Running us through a week and nine preview. We've had some crazy last couple of weeks of the season and week nine. does not seem to have the depth of a slate that you'd like to see compared to the last couple of weeks, but You never know. There's upset alerts all over the place, including for Utah and BYU this week. so we'll see what we got in store and uh To kick this one off, let's... ah
Caleb Call: Just head over to... Cincinnati and Nippert Stadium. We got Utah coming off a big win against Houston. We've got Cincinnati coming off a big win against Texas Tech. And Utah's about a six and a half or seven point favorite, depending on what where you're looking.
Caleb Call: at the beginning of the year we did not really have this game circled we kind of just noted like It's between the Houston and BYU games. It may be kind of a trap game there. but is This is a tougher game than a trap game.
Ben Fowers: Yeah, it's kind of an interesting one because Usually coming off a big win is... Like we've seen it. This year with BYU last week, the SEC all year where. you come off of your biggest one of the year. It's been and not very friendly to the college football.
Ben Fowers: like top 10 top 15 teams and um It is an interesting spot, though, because Cincinnati is coming off of a top 10 win themselves. So both teams are coming off. probably their biggest wins of the season thus far.
Ben Fowers: Their biggest wins of the season thus far. I shouldn't say probably. So they both are coming off huge wins.
Caleb Call: Yeah, definitely are.
Ben Fowers: um yeah so coming off big wins for both teams so it's hard to i don't know it's hard to and To say who's going to take the... Take the the rat poison or the trap game into the next one
Caleb Call: and a little bit of a look ahead spot for utah with the holy war on deck too so even do some more complication. And Scali said that. His team is focused and fine. but It's easy to say that. Kalani said they were about UCF, and we saw how that game went. and this You can't fully like blame a loss on.
Caleb Call: things that happened off the field like UCF played a good game and they They played good enough to win the game. It's not like that's just because of a mentality thing. But, yeah, this is going to be a... A tough one for Utah. Cincinnati's run offense. They have been incredible this year. One of the best running backs. JC French has been good at quarterback too.
Caleb Call: Where do you think that... I guess a team they pose the biggest threat to Utah.
Ben Fowers: I think. For me, it's... french just uh in general if he can create with his legs like he showed that in the past where he can kind of be a dual threat guy and i I think that's what.
Caleb Call: Yeah.
Ben Fowers: he's gonna have to do because um yeah I don't know. Cincinnati, they played a pretty good game against Texas Tech. but um they got ran all over by west virginia and so it's kind of an interesting uh dynamic you've seen kind of
Caleb Call: Yeah.
Ben Fowers: different teams. and I was listening to Urban Meyer this week and he said, Probably the best thing that happened to Utah is that. Cincinnati came in and beat Tech because now they kind of like, oh, like there's a potential.
Ben Fowers: Um, you just won your biggest game. Kind of like you. A look -ahead game to BYU, plus you just beat Houston.
Caleb Call: Yeah.
Ben Fowers: this is It was an easy game. that It seemed like at the beginning of the year, and now you they just beat Tech the week before. and so if you were sleeping on the game he's like now now Utah's eyes just got open they're just Cincinnati's ready to um they showed on the film like oh this this team kind of dominated Tech all the way through and it was like we talked about it on Monday it wasn't even as close as the score daylight.
Caleb Call: That could have been a four -touchdown win easily.
Ben Fowers: Yeah. And I mean, the Tech scored late. They had that pick six. That probably shouldn't happen. And so it's a. I mean, i I think that's probably a ah good thing that this happened right in front of the Utah game. And Urban Meyer was saying, like, now they're going to watch film and say, oh, this team was legit, and they're going to have to.
Ben Fowers: refocus whether they were going to.
Caleb Call: Yeah.
Ben Fowers: sleepwalk into it after a good win. plus a look ahead w is kind of like a double double -edged sword and so i think yeah morgan scali said they got good leaders and so he's not worried about them looking ahead of cincinnati and so it'll be interesting to see how um ah That actually plays out
Caleb Call: I can't wait to see Coltab. He's an electric running back. The last two weeks against Texas Tech and against ah West Virginia. 178 yards and two touchdowns, 169 yards and three touchdowns. He's gone over 100 yards four times this year. He's had... um four multiple touchdown games to this point of the season. Now, Utah's run defense has been stout to this point of the year.
Caleb Call: They showed holes last year, especially down the stretch. so I mean, what we'll see. i mean what what Utah's able to do to slow down JC French and Cole Tabb, but Cincinnati is going to have to win this game.
Caleb Call: I think, on the backs of their run game. and Obviously, Utah is probably feels pretty excited to have a chance to win the game with their run defense because Utah, that's kind of their... pride on defense is to be able to win the trenches. so It'll be interesting to see kind of how Cincinnati decides to attack that.
Caleb Call: um Their passing game I don't think is going to be all that dynamic. J .C. Furch is a fine quarterback passing. But if they can get the running game going And especially on the other side of the ball, I mean, you saw Houston.
Caleb Call: Utah had two touchdowns at the end of that game. And... Cincinnati, of I mean. They don't have a defense nearly as good as Houston's, I'd say. and you saw Cincinnati against a West Virginia offense that Utah probably feels like they can emulate in a lot of ways what West Virginia did.
Caleb Call: running the ball, and Cincinnati gave up 42 points. so If you're a Cincinnati Bearcat fan, you probably aren't anticipating holding Utah to zero points at halftime. 14 going into the last minute or two of the game. So you probably are going to need a better offense performance to win this one.
Caleb Call: and But it'll be interesting to see if the defense can do what they did against Texas Tech, which is. Texas Tech moved the ball. They just couldn't get in the end zone. It was field goal drives. And that's been the story of Texas Tech. entire season to this point, but that's going to kind of have to be the game script for Cincinnati to win this one.
Ben Fowers: I was wondering how much of that had to do with Texas Tech. Because like you said, we'd seen Texas Tech not finish in the red zone and kick a lot of field goals.
Caleb Call: Yeah.
Ben Fowers: up to this point. And if you look at just the point totals, and I know the point totals don't always tell the story, but they only gave up 24 last week against Tech. And it was a late touchdown on a pick six. So really their defense was better than that.
Ben Fowers: But before that, it was West Virginia. They gave up 45. Arizona, they gave up 34. Then they beat Kansas State with 26. Gave up 31 against Miami. so It seemed like that was ah one of their better performances in the last month on defense.
Caleb Call: Yeah.
Ben Fowers: and so um kind the Same thing. I'm kind of'm just like, is that more tech? like Maybe tech's just not a team that finishes in the red zone. like like These other teams have... teams on paper you wouldn't think are as good as um tech they just
Caleb Call: Yeah.
Ben Fowers: they scored more points than Tech on Cincinnati. And so i I'm curious to see how it goes. i I don't think – I think Utah is going to – be able to score. i But Utah's been a team where they've when they've moved the ball, they've went and scored touchdowns. They haven't kicked a lot of field goals up until this point. So I think if Utah's moving the ball and if they find something right, they're going to be fine scoring the ball. they
Ben Fowers: It feels like they usually score touchdowns and then the third quarter they don't score at all. And then sometimes if depending on the game, the fourth quarter, they have to. Go find a touchdown. them
Caleb Call: Yeah.
Ben Fowers: to this point they have. And so it's like. So that's kind of how Utah's MO has been. And if they're moving the ball in Cincinnati, I i think Cincinnati, like you said, is going to have to score. ah big number to to pull it off so I think they're going to need to benna shoot out.
Caleb Call: And you've seen, I mean... Two different offenses, Kansas and Colorado, they both had. decent scoring games against Utah. They both put up 24. Kansas left points on the field.
Caleb Call: But neither of them really did it. led by the run game like Cincinnati is going to try to. so i mean we'll see uh this is the kind of opponent utah probably should be able to beat but playing on the road never easy especially if you got anybody on the team looking forward to the BYU game at all, not having their mind fully set. and i mean that who knows what kind of factor that can play but I feel like the seven -point spread is probably fair for for this game.
Caleb Call: um i would have a hard time seeing. you know any reason for that to be any closer for Cincinnati and I think that My score guess in this game. I'm going with Utah. 31 to 21.
Caleb Call: I think it'll be a game where Cincinnati you definitely throw some punches. And it might be you know uncomfortable for a little bit in the second half. But I think that Cincinnati will. run out of steam on offense, kind of similar to how Houston did last week. and Utah will end up winning by two scores.
Ben Fowers: Yeah, I I actually have a similar score. I got another touchdown on for Utah, though. I had it down as 38 -21. I like I think Cincinnati. it's kind of an interesting offense where I'm I wouldn't be shocked if it's lower than 21, to be honest. but i I got him at 21, and I think Utah's going to be able to score the ball. and like if i were to If you told me I was wrong, I would guess it's wrong. Utah going up and Cincinnati going down. like I don't think it's...
Ben Fowers: like I don't think Cincinnati's gonna score more than 21. I think Utah's going to be able to put them. the ball in the end zone. And I mean, you've seen Arizona do it. You see Western or West Virginia do it. And so it's, I, I just think Utah is going to figure something out. to to put points on the board on this.
Ben Fowers: Bearcats team.
Caleb Call: Yeah. Cincinnati crowd gets into it. I mean, if they can Kind of punch Utah in the mouth early. and kind of have them playing on the edge and make the ampere throw a little bit. Maybe they'll be the first team to kind of do that and take Dampier's legs away. and make them win a different way.
Ben Fowers: Do it.
Caleb Call: I feel like that's kind of.
Ben Fowers: Everyone. I've been listening to some stuff where it's like they're they're talking all about Dampier's legs. And to this point in the season, Dampier. The Houston game was the first game all year where he. really ran a lot. like but Utah's offense really hasn't. Ran through Dampier's legs.
Ben Fowers: this season. And so the first six games of the year, you saw it and then. Houston kind of just I mean that was what saved him because they ah I mean, it was 3 -0, and then Houston went on that first drive of the third quarter. and so dan pierre really hasn't i mean obviously he just showed he can do it and so they're gonna have to slow that down And if they give him the lanes, he's going to take it.
Caleb Call: Yeah.
Ben Fowers: but that i yeah
Caleb Call: If you're a DC, you're probably wanting to approach like what Houston did. defensively, if you take out Dampier's legs. That is the game script that you want to follow. Wayshawn had a hard time getting the ball you know going on the ground. Bird didn't really do much either.
Caleb Call: Dampier threw two interceptions, didn't have a great game throwing the ball. but then you gave up 150 on the ground and so you got to find a way to kind of force the same issues. but not give Dampier the running lanes that he had against Houston.
Caleb Call: And who knows if a team's going to be able to do it.
Ben Fowers: Yeah, and it was And Houston, actually, they sold out on stop and wait, Sean, like on. pretty much any like option or read option routes.
Caleb Call: yeah
Ben Fowers: They were crashing on Weishan. And so they came in. he's not beating us. and um it ended up being dampier pull and go and now on
Caleb Call: Yeah.
Ben Fowers: I basically just gave up
Caleb Call: It almost worked.
Ben Fowers: Lanes to damp here.
Caleb Call: They had the ball down one.
Ben Fowers: Yeah Yeah.
Caleb Call: Yeah.
Ben Fowers: they They slowed down Weishan, but yeah, it's ah it'll be interesting to see if someone else tries to do the same thing where they slow down Weishan. I don't know if you have a an extra guy in the box a spy or whatever we also try to stopped ampere as well and in that so that's kind of
Caleb Call: Yeah.
Ben Fowers: Yeah, it was interesting to see Houston because they were just they just were like, Weishan's not beating us. and I they did it.
Caleb Call: And honestly, if you're gonna have a player take a bunch of hits, you want it to be the opposing quarterback. You're welcome there.
Ben Fowers: Yeah, so houston's a Houston's an interesting team just because, they like we talked about, they –
Caleb Call: so
Ben Fowers: They dropped their two biggest games on the schedule, so they kind of need a lot of help going forward with tiebreakers and stuff like that. The other team's losing more. and so But they're they're not a bad team. so
Caleb Call: Yeah. We'll see if Cincinnati can... get some nipper magic. they They love their home crowd. and i'm excited to see that one it's happening the exact same time As ASU come into Provo.
Caleb Call: This is, I mean, again. None of this is going to actually impact how the game is played on the field. But. If you want a reason to be a little bit worried if you're a BYU fan. Your last home loss was 2024.
Caleb Call: to a team that wore... Black helmet, white jersey, black helmet, the Kansas Jayhawks. The last time BYU wore all navy like they're wearing this week. They played the team.
Caleb Call: Boise State. who wore black helmet, white jersey, black helmet. I mean, black pants. And you lost that game to Boise in 2021. And so now here comes ASU. You're wearing the all Navy.
Caleb Call: And they're wearing black, white, black. so it's ah This game, at least ah the way it's going to look on the field, is going to remind you of some tough, painful losses that happened in Lavelle Edwards Stadium. BYU is a 16 .5 -point favorite. ASU is down to either the backup or their third -string quarterback. We're not sure yet if Mikey Keene is going to play. It could be Jake Fett.
Caleb Call: Either way. Neither of those quarterbacks really pose. a ton of a like threat to the defense. BYU is a 16 .5 point favorite for a reason. Now. ASU does have some great weapons. Amarion Miller. BYU fans will remember him from Colorado last year. He had a game against the Cougars. and then Mack, their running back, he had four touchdowns last week against Kansas State.
Caleb Call: He's kind of got it going on. He's a true freshman. um and Reed Harris, the other wide receiver. I mean, ASU's got some dudes. They just haven't been able to get it all together. And then their biggest issue is they just. Can't defend. BYU.
Caleb Call: you would hope would have a lot of scoring drives in this game. It doesn't always work out that simply, but... But honestly, the Vegas number caught me a little off guard how high it was just because. It feels like BYU so rarely just... pummels a team. like a 16 and a half point spread kind of implies you should
Ben Fowers: I was, uh... Because... So they just benched a Cutter Bowley last week. And. Did I hear that the backup also got hurt?
Caleb Call: Yeah, he got hurt in the game and the third string finished the game Jake Fett. And so they they're not. I'm going to tell BYU who's starting probably until an hour or two before kickoff. They're they're leaving up in the air. I'm sure.
Caleb Call: Kenny Dillingham knows who's going to start. but Doesn't want to give the secret away.
Ben Fowers: Cause I was seeing stuff that they thought it was the third string that was going to start. I was kind of surprised they weren't going to go back to. the starter but i mean it had been pretty bad up until this point but
Caleb Call: Yeah.
Ben Fowers: um Because I didn't I'm pretty sure all three quarterbacks got in this week for Arizona State, so it'll be inch interesting to see. I think that probably the QB. how bad the qb play has been has a lot to do with that like arizona state ah Their last few games have been pretty rough. they They did get a win this last week against Kansas State, but before that they got blown out by Tech. They gave up 53 to an offense that hasn't been finishing in the red zone.
Ben Fowers: There you go.
Caleb Call: A couple of those were scored on defense, so it wasn't all.
Ben Fowers: Yeah, they they get Then they won 30 -12 against a really bad Hawaii team, so it didn't really...
Caleb Call: Yeah.
Ben Fowers: um Didn't really score a whole lot and then got blown out by a Baylor team right before they go on a two -game losing streak to fire their coach. So give up 55 in that game. and i I don't know. Arizona State. I mean, they did come off this win against Kansas State. twenty eight seventeen But they've kind of been reeling a little bit. And Arizona State just kind of feels like a weird team. so um i I don't know.
Caleb Call: This ASU team...
Ben Fowers: I was a little surprised.
Caleb Call: They kind of feel like the Herm Edwards ASU teams to me. where they have really good players. But it is a bad team. Like it is not a team that should beat you. But if you let one or two guys get hot.
Caleb Call: then. They've got the weapons. They've got like the playmakers to make things interesting. i just don't know if they're going to be able to Give you 60 minutes of it.
Ben Fowers: Yeah, and I mean... They did just pull it off. They had a good fourth quarter against Kansas State. like They scored. lost 14 points and were able to get the win.
Caleb Call: Yeah.
Ben Fowers: That's last week against Kansas State. but I don't... It's kind of a... It doesn't feel like ah it feels like a pretty good spot after a About good bounce back spot for the Cougs.
Ben Fowers: I think they're gonna be able to figure out a way to win and
Caleb Call: For sure. It's the right kind of matchup that you want in a perfect world.
Ben Fowers: um Yeah.
Caleb Call: If you're. you know kind of drawing up the BYU game script. You want to go get a couple of quick touchdowns early to hopefully take a two or three score lead. And not that you're going to take Bear out of the game.
Caleb Call: But just try and avoid bear getting. Hits. Throughout, you know the entire second half possible.
Ben Fowers: Take away the QB. Take away QB draw.
Caleb Call: Take away the QB run.
Ben Fowers: and on the third mediums that they've been doing a lot of.
Caleb Call: any long developing past plays. Try and take those out too. You don't want Bear taking hits if he doesn't have to in this one.
Ben Fowers: Yeah. yeah those i feel like a lot of time on like those third mediums like it becomes a qb draw a lot for the byu like they've rented a lot the last two years with baron so maybe that gets you can kind of avoid those extra hits but
Caleb Call: Yeah.
Ben Fowers: It doesn't seem like it. For a lot of quarterbacks, sometimes they come up a little gimpy, but it seems like the last two years hasn't bothered Barrett a whole lot. like I haven't seen him. Besides, I guess, late last year, he was a little banged up against Tech. in the
Caleb Call: And that him getting banged up there is because his ankle got rolled up on him.
Ben Fowers: championship game.
Caleb Call: It wasn't even because of like the hits he was taking. like it He wears the number 47. Runs like a fullback plays like a fullback and gets up after hits like a fullback like he He's a tough kid, and I'm not too worried about it.
Ben Fowers: When did he get rolled? I can't remember. Did he get rolled up in the Big 12 championship game? or
Caleb Call: it was Yeah, it was the play before our touchdown on that very first drive. So we had the first touchdown drive, 7 -0. Bear gets hurt. mobility tanks after that he could not move very well he got his ankle taped up after the drive and We didn't score again. and i honestly think that had he not gotten injured there I... Not that BYU was going to win the game.
Caleb Call: But that was a 13 -7 game late in the third quarter. one or two more offensive drives that could have gone you know prolonged with his legs. Could have given BYU a chance there. They end up losing 34 -7.
Caleb Call: I think that the bear injury. probably was. a big reason why the scoreboard got as bad as it did there. So that was a rough one. And that's really the only time that we've seen him. come up injured from any hit.
Ben Fowers: Yeah. Yeah, so I mean even just avoiding those type of plays is probably a idea so if they can get If they can get that two -score lead going into the halftime, they're probably just handing the ball off and making everything a little bit more.
Ben Fowers: given those those layup screenplays that BYU's ran a lot of recently. so
Caleb Call: Yeah. To BYU in Utah. are both playing in the early afternoon this week. Don't expect a night game next week, because when the Holy War... gets played up in Salt Lake City. It got announced.
Caleb Call: 10 a .m. local time kickoff First time. I think maybe ever that the Holy war has been that early. I know they've had a couple like 10 30 and like noon kicks back in the day, but Yeah, we got a 10 a .m. kick.
Caleb Call: Either going to be on ABC or ESPN. If both teams handle business, I expect that to be on ABC. Honestly, it's a good TV spot. that All the big games. are in the afternoon in the primetime window.
Caleb Call: And so BYU is going up against, I think the biggest matchup is. Texas, Missouri. that This is going to be on at the same time. i Can't remember who Fox is showing but it wasn't like a a marquee game so it's a it's a big tv window it's going to put up big numbers But it will be weird having a holy war.
Ben Fowers: I think Miami, Notre. I think Miami Notre Dame that week is like 530, right? It's later.
Caleb Call: Yeah, that's 530. And then you've got Bama LSU in the afternoon. Slot it. like 12 30 mountain time Or 1 .30, maybe I can't conclude.
Ben Fowers: That was ah my initial thought was like, oh, i I'm shocked that. It wasn't a night game and or a late game because i always ah you always think BYU -Utah is one of these late ones. and i ah because I'm going to the game. I was.
Ben Fowers: I was initially kind of bummed out about it, but then I was thinking about it. I started looking into like some of the bigger rivalries like Ohio State, Michigan. it's played It's been played at 10 a .m. every year since 2006.
Caleb Call: every year Yeah.
Ben Fowers: Yeah, and so I i actually, ah I'm kind of coming around on it a little bit. i ah I think ah just the eyeball aspect of it, I think it'll be big for the Big 12 and Utah BYU going forward to see.
Ben Fowers: um to kind of display i guess right now utah has played in i can't i haven't counted but It seems like most nights, like it's the 8 -15 game most nights. and so um that alone just gets more eyeballs on the top teams in the Big 12. Because right now, Utah, BYU are probably the one, two.
Ben Fowers: um depending on i mean where you're where you're looking at and so i mean they're one two in the polls right now too um according to the ap poll so i think it'll be good for that being the biggest game getting more poll voters watching the the top two teams in the Big 12. And so I kind of come around on it a little bit as a.
Ben Fowers: just as a Utah BYU game. I do love the night game. So I'm not like totally set on it going forward, but I i think it'll be a good thing to get the.
Caleb Call: For a year like this, where both teams are in the top 10 of the country, Like, it feels like a pretty good marquee window to be playing in.
Ben Fowers: to get the most eyeballs on it.
Caleb Call: You have a lot of people like Liam Blutman from.
Ben Fowers: Yeah.
Caleb Call: bar stool. he He posted and said that like it's a shame that this is going to... impact the play on the field. I don't buy into that. like I know BYU fans love talking about the night games. Utah fans love talking about the night games. And I do think it legitimately will impact the crowd a little bit. like It's easier to get rowdy at night than it is in the morning.
Caleb Call: But... At the end of the day, it's the same players playing on the same field. Yeah, I mean... sure morning kickoffs are ideal but I mean, these kids played football their entire lives growing up, but most of those games are played Saturday at night in the morning. It's not like they're.
Caleb Call: Yeah, I know high schools are played at night. College is generally played at night. but It's not that big of a change -up. The the kids will be fine. and I'm excited for it. BYU we had a 10 a .m. kickoff a couple years ago in Oklahoma.
Caleb Call: came to town. and that kickoff yeah 10 a .m BYU ended up losing a close one there to Oklahoma and then We saw Utah. I think Texas Tech might have been the last. home kickoff at 10 a .m utah hosted and that was um Last year yeah against Texas Tech and obviously didn't go the youth's way either so We'll see if either team can. ah come out strong in the morning.
Ben Fowers: Yeah, sorry. I'm ah i more open to it then. It seems like a lot of the general public's thinking from the state of Utah.
Caleb Call: I like it
Ben Fowers: so
Caleb Call: It's kind of funny to me. You had the Utah athletic director. complain. publicly about the Big 12's TV partners putting them at 815 every week. And so now Utah gets put at 10 a .m., and now their fans are complaining a lot on Twitter.
Caleb Call: about the early holy war kickoff and so
Ben Fowers: So. I feel like this is just everything right now. It's just like, there's always something to complain about. It kind of drives me crazy a little bit.
Caleb Call: Always.
Ben Fowers: Like the end of the day, it's just like, go play your football game whenever they, they slot you.
Caleb Call: Go play football.
Ben Fowers: and like As long as you keep winning, you'll be fine.
Caleb Call: I agree with that. I'm much more concerned about the channel you play on versus... the time you play out it does not matter that much Another Holy War little... snippet we got this week.
Caleb Call: And. This is not a shocker to anyone. But on three reported that LJ Martin's. tracking to play for the Utah game, which... He got hurt in the TCU game.
Caleb Call: They said it was going to be a four to six week recovery. and Utah was four weeks after. And. Sure enough, it sounds like that's going to be what happens. and I don't think either of us are really too surprised to have heard that.
Ben Fowers: i kind of was like I mean, I think we talked about that next week. I said I wouldn't be surprised if he plays.
Caleb Call: Yeah.
Ben Fowers: I mean, four weeks, he misses the first next four games. Utah is the next week. i wasn't I said I think he's going to play. And then if he's not. like if he's kind of like pushing to get back i wouldn't be surprised if he has to miss a week after that just to kind of really regroup against. I wouldn't be surprised if he plays against Utah and then misses the week after just from the.
Ben Fowers: like if it really is pushing if it needs to be more closer that six weeks maybe it's like
Caleb Call: Yeah.
Ben Fowers: an extra nag or something like that. And so, I mean, it's the biggest game on their schedule. And so it's, I mean, it's. a tough uh Tough to, the Utah game, BYU game, everyone always circles it every year. So you kind of, when you hear four to six and they're four weeks out, like I think everyone kind of expected this to happen. so
Caleb Call: Yeah, not a surprise to anyone. And, I mean, you saw BYU manage to beat Notre Dame without LJ. and obviously Huge kudos to the Cougar staff for doing that. Going into the Utah game, ah you do not want to have to play. both of your biggest games of the season without LJ. And he just.
Caleb Call: He helps the entire offense go. He helps with pass, bro. He helps with even like alignment. Last year, he was almost doing Bear's job for him because Bear was a true freshman coming into the program late. and LJ was helping with a lot of the... things that bear was doing and just That dude's a veteran.
Caleb Call: He's the best runner we have by far, Sione Moa and Preston Rex. They... are not nearly as dynamic in the run game. And who knows how LJ is going to be coming off the injury. but A hobbled LJ I still think is going to get you more yards per carry than Sione Moa has been the last couple of weeks.
Ben Fowers: I'd imagine he's probably if he's playing he's probably not like like i don't know man I don't know if what you meant by hobbled, but I'm sure he'll be running fine if he's playing. so
Ben Fowers: so
Caleb Call: We'll see. with That'll be a... Loaded the preview show next week, but we still have another week of football to play before there. um I think probably the biggest game of the week this week. Big 12 matchup between Arizona Wildcats and Texas Tech Red Raiders. This game's in Lubbock. Arizona's only a three -and -a -half -point dog. Would not have seen that coming preseason.
Caleb Call: Arizona lost to BYU. People just kind of forgot about the Wildcats, but they have quietly won every game on their schedule besides BYU by 10 points or more. They just... They recently beat Cincinnati. by four scores.
Caleb Call: Just beat Iowa State by a ton of points, and the final score is 39 -3. They're playing good football, even with a bunch of injuries that kind of depleted their wide receiving crew. And.
Caleb Call: Here they go into Lubbock who... Texas Tech just came off the rough loss to Cincinnati. how How do you feel about this one? Who do you think is like on a neutral field? Who would you consider the better team here?
Ben Fowers: It's been tough because Arizona's like... We've talked a lot about it where it's like. the one team we've seen arizona play is byu and they lost and so it's like There are... We talked about this before. It's like. your Your biggest thing on your resume is a loss. Like that's the biggest thing that's holding your resume together. And so I think this game is going to tell you a lot about Arizona. and My initial thought is F2.
Ben Fowers: I watched the whole Texas Tech Cincinnati game. And so. Just my initial thought is. Um, we were We were talking about what we thought the line was going to be in this game. and i Probably would have thought it was closer to 10 preseason. and This seems about right, three -point favorite for Tech, but I think neutral field. I think I lean Arizona just from watching last week. ah i just I think Tech's got a lot of problems.
Ben Fowers: They can't finish in the red zone.
Caleb Call: it's hard to trust their offense at all and their defense is not as dominant as it was last year
Ben Fowers: And it's... Yeah.
Ben Fowers: And so I probably would trust Rafita in a neutral. field. more than what we've seen from Hammond. and so i uh i think right now i was looking at the when i was looking through this box score of um like how these quarterbacks have done. I think like Hammond's touchdown to interception ratio was like six to six off of fetus is like.
Ben Fowers: 18 to 4 or 5, I think it was. and so just like way like Pretty big contrast at just quarterback play in Arizona. like They just. kick too many field or sorry texas tech kicks too many field goals and so i uh neutral field i lean arizona this is in lubbock though so it's not a neutral field And.
Ben Fowers: Usually they say home field's about worth about three points. And so. Um, Line right now is three and a half And.
Caleb Call: Kind of applies to pick them.
Ben Fowers: So, I mean. Vegas is saying that these teams are pretty similar. and so Is Texas Tech, is Lubbock. a big enough deal where... That makes a difference. I think Texas Tech coming off a loss at Cincinnati probably.
Ben Fowers: um is a good thing for texas tech i think that's I think that's a good thing if Texas Tech is a good team. And so that's the one thing is. Maybe Texas Tech starts to implode. They start to panic. and they just um all their uh all the things that they've struggled to do finish in the red zone just expound and um start to look even worse.
Ben Fowers: and so if it If Texas Tech is a good team, I think losing last week is probably a better thing for this. for this game this week. I think they'll probably be able to rebound.
Caleb Call: Yeah.
Ben Fowers: and Um, at home be able to figure figure it out and beat them but i uh from what i said and it's hard because i watched from i watched with the Whole 60 minutes last week.
Ben Fowers: And I just kind of was expecting Texas Tech to come back in the game. That's why I kept watching. I just was waiting for something to happen. And then it was like fourth quarter. and I was just like, man, they are doing anything. And so.
Ben Fowers: I don't know.
Caleb Call: Yeah.
Ben Fowers: It's kind of a after watching that it's hard to say
Caleb Call: And then you contrast that to what Arizona did to Cincinnati and Tucson. They ran them off the field.
Ben Fowers: Yeah. And so.
Caleb Call: And... Teams change over the course of a season. Maybe Cincinnati is better today than they were you know three weeks ago against Arizona. but Man, I... The last time I kind of felt like this about a game, do you remember back when we were talking about Northwestern -Penn State and you mentioned that it was kind of a get -right spot for Penn State where they played the rough game the week before against Wisconsin, I think it was. and I made the comment like...
Ben Fowers: They got. buzzer beatered.
Caleb Call: I think Northwestern is just a better team. i A get -right game works if you're better than your opponent. I think Arizona is better than Texas Tech this year.
Ben Fowers: Yeah.
Caleb Call: And I think it's led by their quarterback. I think Arizona. Goes out there and beats Texas Tech in Lubbock. I think Texas Tech's path to victory. is pretty clear you need a rattle for Fita. You saw in Provo like in the second half when they got more desperate for points and were... um and more obvious passing downs.
Caleb Call: BYU's pass rush got home a bunch and was able to get some s sacks. and for some errant throws texas tech's defense is capable of that but I just think Arizona is going to be able to score more than Texas Tech is capable of. Arizona's got a fine defense. and I've got the Wildcats in this one by ten. I'm gonna call this one 38 to 28 for Arizona.
Ben Fowers: wow I... Yeah, I... Get right games are are good for good teams and they're not good for good, not good team.
Caleb Call: Yes, and only for good things.
Ben Fowers: And so, yeah, that's the question is, is Texas Tech a good team? and I actually lean with you on this side. i'm a i I actually have it a little bit. Lower scoring than that, though.
Ben Fowers: I got 27 -24 in a tight one. for Arizona. So I got Arizona winning this game outright and going on the road into Lubbock.
Caleb Call: Yeah.
Ben Fowers: And I just got Fafita making. One too many plays for... Texas Tech to figure it out. and I think i you kind of see it similar -ish to that. Houston game where. I think Arizona is going to have to jump out.
Ben Fowers: And.
Caleb Call: You did a good start.
Ben Fowers: get a lead and then
Caleb Call: and
Ben Fowers: And then at the end of the game, it's going to be Titan. Fafita's going to have to. go on a drive to win a game. and he he was an inch away from or i guess a drop and an inch away from doing it in provo to take the lead late and um turnover on downs blu scores the next drive and so they were close in provo Right now, from what I've seen from tech. Tech's not as good as BYU is. and so I uh...
Caleb Call: Tech's not built to come from behind either.
Ben Fowers: Yeah. And so I, I think this is a game where I, I mean, Arizona is a three and a half point dog. And I think that line is more based on last year than it is this year. I think. um
Caleb Call: Yeah.
Ben Fowers: And. so So I think Arizona is going to.
Caleb Call: Honestly, this is...
Ben Fowers: Do it so
Caleb Call: This is an elimination game. the way twelve This year, I mean. The loser is going to have their second conference loss. If you're Texas Tech. The only game left on your schedule against a contender is Oklahoma State.
Caleb Call: You don't play Utah or BYU, so you can't even like control your own destiny to get back into the conversation by beating the teams ahead of you. And if you're Arizona... You lost to BYU early. And when you lose a game early.
Ben Fowers: You lost a tech.
Caleb Call: You want. the teams ahead of you to be on your schedule. And Arizona gets to play Utah Tech. they They have the cards in their hands here to get to the Big 12 championship. and A win here against Texas Tech.
Ben Fowers: Yeah, if they lose this game to Tech, if they lose this game to Tech, they've lost to BYU and Tech with both one loss. Utah sitting there with zero losses. I know Utah and BYU play, but you don't have tiebreakers.
Ben Fowers: You don't have anything against two of the teams that you're trying to pass.
Caleb Call: Yeah.
Ben Fowers: And so now you're hoping for two losses for these teams. And Arizona's out of it if they don't win this game. So this is an elimination game. like it just is what it is like whoever loses this game is on the big 12 championship game
Caleb Call: elimination game here And then... the winner is kind of vaulted into that top tier with Utah and BYU. like that it's the clear number three team i'd say whoever wins this game and uh Arizona's got Utah on the schedule. So Arizona wins, then you're going to have a huge game in Tucson.
Caleb Call: and that's just the week after the holy wars i mean it's You've got three huge probably the three biggest games on Utah's schedule are these next three games right here. Houston was big too, but with that one behind you now.
Caleb Call: Cincy BYU -Arizona back -to -back -to -back. Quite a four -game stretch the Utes are about to be going through. One game into it now.
Ben Fowers: Yeah, yeah, it didn't look like at the beginning of the season it look I would have told you I thought the three hardest games were Houston, BYU, Arizona. So. three of the four right there.
Caleb Call: And TCU is kind of probably the guess for the fourth.
Ben Fowers: And... And that was my guess for the fourth preseason. And now it looks like it's actually that it might be that Cincinnati game. And so.
Caleb Call: Yeah.
Ben Fowers: Now it's in it's four in a row. and so you see You took care of business. You won your first six against the teams you should have. You got it. You got the first big one. And so now. The second mini.
Ben Fowers: It's probably the fourth hardest game. on paper right now and so You got to go take care of this one on the road. it's Road games are always tough. they just want They just knocked off a top -ten team last week.
Caleb Call: Yeah.
Ben Fowers: I'm at Cincinnati, so. You got to go take care of business. So I'm really interested to see the winner this.
Caleb Call: You've seen Satterfield do this before.
Ben Fowers: What?
Caleb Call: Satterfield, if you guys remember. 2024 ASU, who almost beat Texas in the playoff. They went to Cincinnati. um Pretty bad Cincinnati team.
Caleb Call: And they were down 24 -7, put in a touchdown in the fourth quarter to lose 24 -14. Now, granted, Sam Levitt missed the game, but... Cincinnati, even with worse teams than this year's,
Caleb Call: has beaten contenders in the Big 12 before Texas Tech this year, ASU two years ago. and Yeah, not not a team to be taken lightly. And sorry, you were making a point over there, so I'll let you get back to it.
Ben Fowers: No, I was just saying I'm really excited. So the CFP poll comes out next Tuesday after this weekend. And I was more saying this for the Arizona Tech game.
Caleb Call: Yep.
Ben Fowers: I think that game being right before is helpful because I think the winner of that game. We'll actually get a little juice in the CFP pool. And so I'm interested to see where.
Caleb Call: Pushing the top 10 probably.
Ben Fowers: Yeah, and so I... Say that again, top 10.
Caleb Call: I think pushing it, if Tech wins, they probably are sitting there between 10 and 12. And if Arizona wins, I could see anywhere from. 10 to 14 probably.
Ben Fowers: Yeah, so I mean That would be a big jump for the just the AP poll, but I think Arizona probably gets a little bit more love than the AP poll is getting. um you You saw it last year with Utah. Utah was ranked quite a bit higher in the first CFP. So the Big 12, like the top of the Big 12, kind of got a little bit more love in the original CFP than the AP was giving. and so Hopefully that happens again. and for the Big 12's sake. And who knows, maybe you get ah like three top 15 teams in the original poll with Utah BYU if they take care of business this week. and so
Ben Fowers: Um,
Caleb Call: Yeah.
Ben Fowers: I mean, I guess Utah, BYU, they probably. even i guess when you talk with a loss they're probably still top 15 and so ah You're probably sitting there with three top 15 teams next week going into the first week of the CFP poll. So I'm excited to see how this Arizona Tech game turns out.
Caleb Call: Yeah, that'll be fun. we Before we move on, we never give our score guesses for BYU ASU. just real quick i've got 35 to 17 there in the cougars kind of control the game early and just kind of coast in the second half. when comfortably.
Ben Fowers: Yeah, I had that one down as 34 -13. I kind of got it with the quarterback questions. I kind of have Arizona State not doing a whole lot on offense. And so I think BYU kind of rolls on that one.
Caleb Call: Yeah. The rest of the Big 12, you've got some interesting matchups. None of these are really like marquee. like season -defining games. Biggest ones, probably Oklahoma State, Iowa State, because...
Caleb Call: Oklahoma State's still sitting there with one conference loss, going on the road to Ames. and there weren't some halloween uniforms over there. You got the all black for Iowa State and the all orange for Oklahoma State. Iowa State.
Caleb Call: I said it before the year I thought they were going to be good enough to knock off one of the contenders. This is pretty much the last chance to do it. They already lost to Arizona, lost to BYU, lost to Utah. They got enough juice to give the Cowboys a game.
Ben Fowers: Um... tough because they i don't I don't think so. I think... ah I think Oklahoma State's offense is going to score enough points. to be able to kind of...
Ben Fowers: Iowa State feels like they're a team where like they gave BYU and Utah games.
Caleb Call: I think so. you
Ben Fowers: like they the Both of them were close -ish games. I think Utah... I think Utah and BYU didn't they both win by 14? I think they both won by 14.
Caleb Call: They both went by 14. And Iowa State had the ball down seven against Utah. like they Had the possession to tie it in the fourth quarter.
Ben Fowers: Yeah.
Ben Fowers: Yeah, I I just think. They're like Utah and BYU are both similarly built as in like they're. kind of um they They rely on their defense more than a typical team. I think Oklahoma State's kind of – that's kind of the – type of team Iowa State is going to play with.
Ben Fowers: and be able to kind of keep it close with. And I think Oklahoma State's not that way where the Oklahoma State's going to be able to. Throw it around the yard and score enough points to... I think there's going to be more points on the board for Oklahoma State, and it's going to be harder for Iowa State.
Caleb Call: Yeah.
Ben Fowers: to hang with offensively so i got oklahoma state in this one
Caleb Call: I agree. I got Oklahoma State winning that one and down kind of comfortably. Besides that, you mean Baylor -UCF, Dave Aranda's gone, UCF just beat BYU. You see a fired head coach kind of fire up a team pretty often.
Caleb Call: And then UCF.
Ben Fowers: Yeah.
Caleb Call: It's their space game. They win their space game every year. I don't think that they've lost it a single time since they started doing it. um I can't remember what they did last year. They might have lost last year for the first time. um but This game with, I mean, Baylor, I i think.
Caleb Call: pulled ahead as far as vegas goes and is not favored in this one Um... Friday night, really the only real Friday night game this week. Who do you got winning this one?
Ben Fowers: This one's tough because you see all the time. Fired coaches, new coaching staffs come in and kind of. um
Caleb Call: They get a get a good game or two out of these guys.
Ben Fowers: Rejuvenate.
Ben Fowers: Yeah, and I don't think Baylor is a bad.
Caleb Call: There were some wrinkles in the game plan.
Ben Fowers: I don't think Baylor's a bad team. i A blocked field goal was... basically the reason that um dave aranda is not coaching right now and
Caleb Call: Yeah.
Ben Fowers: It's kind of a I mean obviously there's more than that and a game to lose a game but You lose by one, and then last week your offense just didn't do anything. And TCU's defense is good, and so you lose this low -scoring game.
Ben Fowers: I got Baylor in this one. I i think they're going to be able to. to do it. I Baylor's offense and. They're, uh... I think UCF is built.
Ben Fowers: Um, to kind of score with teams and like be able to put up points like you saw it against. BYU where they put up um a bunch of points oklahoma state they were I think they lost 42 -28. So it's a high scoring game. And so they're kind of more. built to win games like that.
Ben Fowers: and i ah So I think that's how UCF is going to have to do it. And I just think Baylor's defense in general has been better than that. I think they're gonna be able to slow UCF down. And so that's why I got Baylor in this one.
Caleb Call: Jenkins has been a pretty up -and -down quarterback, and who knows if Alonzo Barnett gets the start here. Maybe he's healthy. Jenkins had a really good game against BYU. He was hitting a lot of throws I did not expect him to be able to make.
Caleb Call: And. Keep him plays live with his legs. I don't know if you can rely on that week. after week if you're UCF. I kind of lean Baylor here too. We've seen the hangover after big wins.
Caleb Call: And so I. This game is tough for me because I honestly like. If Dave Aranda hadn't gotten fired, I probably would pick UCF. But I do think that that kind of... gives Baylor a little bit of life and I think the coaching staff comes out with some wrinkles UCF's not going to have seen on film.
Caleb Call: They're going to come out with players ready to prove themselves because now with your coach gone. Who knows what this offseason is going to hold for you. So if you want to go to the portal, you better show out well these next few weeks. so Yeah, I'll have Baylor winning this one close, too.
Caleb Call: The rest of the virtual conference schedule, Kansas TCU, Kansas State Colorado. None of those are going to impact much. BYU still has got Kansas on the schedule. Utah still has TCU on the schedule. so at least an interesting game just to kind of monitor there for uh BYU in Utah.
Caleb Call: And then the rest of the country. It's a weird slate. College game day is going to. Hey. football game that has a 20 .5 point spread. between Minnesota and Indiana.
Caleb Call: uh Ohio State USC. Georgia, Florida. I mean, there's Those are kind of like the the marquee games this week. Maybe Wisconsin -Iowa. Iowa did fall out of the top 25 after their loss to Minnesota.
Caleb Call: Um. Is there any game that you've got like... your eyes like your full attention on this week
Ben Fowers: Well, I guess Not the full attention on this first one, but I was going to ask you with... Indiana last week going to overtime with Michigan, barely squeaking it out. and And with ah Minnesota upset.
Ben Fowers: iowa would is I was kind of shocked it was 20 and a half.
Caleb Call: They have beaten Michigan by more points than – or I guess the same amount of points. They won in regulation. 20 and a half shocked me.
Ben Fowers: i I couldn't believe it.
Caleb Call: now
Ben Fowers: I.
Caleb Call: I get it a little bit because you see how Minnesota lost their two games.
Ben Fowers: ia
Caleb Call: They lost by 25 points to Mississippi State, and they lost by 28 points to Purdue. So their losses have gone ugly, the two times they did lose. And so mamie maybe if Hoover's feeling better, a little healthier than he has been.
Caleb Call: Maybe Indiana can... kind of follow that same path but I just i don't think Indiana's offense is... good enough to go blow up Minnesota like that. i was shocked by the last i probably would have guessed that spread was gonna be closer to like 10 points not 20.
Ben Fowers: I agree.
Ben Fowers: Yeah i But besides that one... i The one that's really interesting to me that I'll keep my eyes eyes on. Early there's two in the late slate is They're both top ah I guess it's top two teams. It's iowa or Ohio State and Miami's game. So Miami's going to North Carolina.
Ben Fowers: And I feel like Belichick's actually got them playing good football. And you saw last week where I guess this was two weeks ago where Miami goes to double overtime against Florida. I think this is I mean, it's a 14 point spread, but.
Ben Fowers: if this game's close early like i'll be watching it through the end and so
Caleb Call: Oh for sure.
Ben Fowers: It's a... And so this is a game where I think North Carolina could sneak and get a win. And then I also want to see Ohio State with no say in. um They're playing at USC this week. and I mean...
Caleb Call: If there was ever a defense to have your quarterback make his first start against, it's the USC defense.
Ben Fowers: I know.
Ben Fowers: Yeah, and i'm I've said it, I'm probably one of the biggest USC... haters there are like i just this is probably from the utah usc pack 12 days and i just have never liked them but I've watched a lot of them this year. I just don't think they're that good of a football team. like They're just an okay team. they're They're like a...
Ben Fowers: I think they're probably... they should probably be ranked 23 to like 40 is probably what type of football team they are.
Caleb Call: I honestly like... If you were to give USC and like a game against Oregon State, who's... kind of an equivalent team in the Pac -12 right now. I'm not sure I take USC in that football game. like I just don't trust them.
Caleb Call: Their ah offense is good. But even their offense, like you saw it against Oregon, they fell behind. They gave up 41 points, and their offense couldn't keep up with Oregon. And Oregon's defense hasn't been great this year. i mean
Ben Fowers: Yeah.
Caleb Call: it They're not a good team, but this is a chance to get this themselves back on the map.
Ben Fowers: That's why.
Ben Fowers: Yeah, and this is an interesting spot because Ohio State, when Sane went down, did nothing offensively. And so. against ah Indiana two weeks ago. They had a bye this week, so they've they've had two weeks to kind of prep their quarterback. I expect Ohio State to win this game just because i I think their dudes are just better than USC's dudes, and I think USC's defense is.
Ben Fowers: um not good i think ohio state will be able to kind of scheme and plan around the new QB. and so I lean Ohio State in this one, but I'm going to have my eyes on it. I think this is a game where. Would I be shocked if it's Ty going into the fourth? No. i Do I think USC is good? No. but i it's those are the two interesting ones late for me is the most The game I'm watching the most, we already talked about it, Arizona Tech.
Caleb Call: Yeah.
Ben Fowers: That's the one I'm most excited about. In this slate, i'm I'm excited to watch that one. That's in the early slate, but that late night. you don't have halloween plans See if I kind of take a peek Miami, North Carolina Ohio State, USC, see if one of them was on that.
Ben Fowers: upset alert guess
Caleb Call: Here's the other thing with Ohio State USC. Ohio State right now. is still in the top three for national champion odds. Which shocks me without saying for the rest of the year, because I mean, it's felt like all year long, their offense is.
Caleb Call: very reliant on jeremiah smith and now you just lost the quarterback who gets in the ball so Yeah, I...
Ben Fowers: And their schedules not their schedule's not easy.
Caleb Call: This is a chance to come to Steve.
Ben Fowers: It's yeah at USC, which is probably their easiest game left. Then they go. home against Oregon, home against Northwestern, who's having a good year, at Nebraska, home against Michigan. like I would probably say this USC game is their easiest one.
Caleb Call: Probably, honestly. If I had to bet right now, I'd probably bet on them going 4 -1. Hard to guess which game they'd drop, but... Yeah, I mean, this...
Ben Fowers: Yeah, it feels like there's a loss in there.
Caleb Call: Great situation for their quarterback. getting a start here
Ben Fowers: Yeah.
Caleb Call: And this is a chance to kind of see is. Is Ohio State still a championship contender without Julian saying? We'll find out. No, I think that's going to be a fun one.
Ben Fowers: I haven't heard for sure if he's out for the... postseason. though I know they're... prepping for it but there's a chance he comes back for the playoffs I think and so if that's the case like if they can kind of hold it over until then.
Ben Fowers: and
Caleb Call: You know what? They... If anything. Learn from Florida State. If Florida State had just lied to the committee and said, hey, our quarterback. Jordan Travis.
Caleb Call: is Probably going to be back for the playoff. They are in that 14 field. just Just lie to the committees.
Ben Fowers: or Kyle Whittingham. ah
Caleb Call: Say Julian Satan is tracking the play. And then, oh, shoot, he didn't make it. But good thing you put us in there as the 11th seed because we had the, you know, potential of Julian Sam playing. I mean.
Ben Fowers: I think a 10 -2 Ohio State's in for sure, and I think a 9 -3 is a conversation.
Caleb Call: All right.
Ben Fowers: With how much chaos there's been this year, it feels like there's going to be a 9 -3 team, and I think Ohio State.
Caleb Call: Yeah.
Ben Fowers: is the name brand that probably does get in at 93.
Caleb Call: It depends.
Caleb Call: Eight, nine, and three. If Saiyan's out. for the rest of the season for sure. And they just look. very bad on offense. That's going to be the lasting impression the committee is going to see. like This is the Ohio State today, and I think they'll get treated pretty poorly because of it.
Caleb Call: And they have the big Indiana win. The Texas loss is aging. not as well as you would have expected early in the season. So we'll see. Another game I got my eye on. Georgia, Florida.
Caleb Call: This feels like an elimination game for Florida. Gets them out if they lose. But this rivalry is always a close one. And this game is being played in Atlanta because of the. I think. where they play it in Jacksonville, you've got some construction going on. so Um,
Caleb Call: Georgia. He had the Auburn loss. and Now you got Florida. Coming up. Georgia has been... like It felt like they were the best team in the country, and then Auburn really exposed them. They had the big win against Alabama. I still think Georgia.
Caleb Call: probably is like the most talented and best team in the country but Florida, I mean, they've had some huge wins this year. They beat Texas. They beat Ole Miss. and I mean, they're playing for their lives right now, and so i mean this is a chance to...
Caleb Call: Go not just knock off your rival, but... If Florida wins this, they're sitting in the top 10 going into the playoff rankings next week. so
Ben Fowers: That's kind of it.
Caleb Call: That'll be a fun one.
Ben Fowers: Florida's schedule is so interesting to go look at. So they were 3 -0. And then they went on a four -game stretch against. Number four, Ole Miss, Missouri, South Carolina, Texas.
Ben Fowers: If I had told you they went two and two. I would have been like, oh, they lost to Ole Miss in Texas games and then they beat Missouri in South Carolina.
Caleb Call: Those are the ones they want So fun.
Ben Fowers: And they flipped them. Yeah. So you got the two big wins. You lose to South Carolina and unranked South Carolina. You lose to. Missouri was ranked 25 when they played. so um Yeah, it's kind of a...
Ben Fowers: Florida's a weird team this year. so
Caleb Call: In this game, if I mean... Florida scheduled the rest of the way. they have gotten through the meat of it. So if they are able to win this Georgia game. They're scheduled the rest of the way.
Caleb Call: Oklahoma. Kentucky, which looks tougher now than it did before, but still If you're good enough to beat Georgia, good enough to beat Texas, good enough to beat Ole Miss, you probably hope you can beat Kentucky. So Oklahoma, Kentucky, Vandy, Florida State.
Caleb Call: I mean... They beat Georgia. their playoff is in front of them that they're going to have a great path to get there
Ben Fowers: is Based on, I mean, obviously it's based on the landscape of how the country is doing. It does feel like with more losses this year than even last year or the year before in the 12 team. it This is how I feel. I don't know if this is this you.
Ben Fowers: you have the same thought, but if I feel like there's going to be a three loss team that gets in this year. I don't know if you feel the same way
Caleb Call: I think so
Ben Fowers: Is Florida the type of team that... is in the mix at 9 -3 with a win against Ole Miss, with a win against... um
Caleb Call: Let's say they beat Georgia and lose to Kentucky on the road.
Ben Fowers: Texas.
Caleb Call: So they're sitting in nine and three. Wins against Georgia, Texas, Ole Miss.
Ben Fowers: Probably.
Caleb Call: Yeah. I mean... You lost some tough ones, Missouri, South Carolina.
Ben Fowers: What if you flip them say that you lose the Georgia beat Kentucky
Caleb Call: Thank you.
Caleb Call: I'd probably lean no on that one.
Ben Fowers: Me too.
Caleb Call: All right. Yeah. And I do think you probably will get a three loss team in there from the SEC.
Ben Fowers: I do too. I think that.
Caleb Call: What?
Ben Fowers: how How the Big Ten's kind of not been as good this year.
Caleb Call: Yeah.
Ben Fowers: and how the big 12 just cannibalized itself last week. It just feels like the the bids kind of shrunk in the Big 12. It felt like there could have been three. Now it feels like it's two at best case scenario, the Big 10.
Ben Fowers: You're sitting at three, maybe. um And then if unless someone. kind of falls apart late and so
Caleb Call: yeah
Ben Fowers: It feels like the SEC with how many losses they already have, it feels like there's a three loss team coming this year. So.
Caleb Call: Yeah. it'll be interesting to monitor the rest of the way so i mean that's kind of a good segue into The last thing we want to talk about is... How many teams still control their own destiny to where...
Caleb Call: If they just win every game on their schedule, they will be the national champions. but Let's start it off in the SEC. Because right now in the SEC. They have.
Caleb Call: what is it, nine or ten teams that are still sitting there with two losses. Let's go count them here. You got Kentucky sitting at 7 -1, Georgia 6 -1, Bama 6 -2, Florida 5 -2.
Caleb Call: Ole Miss 5 -2, LSU 6 -2, Tennessee 6 -2. Missouri 5 -2, Texas 5 -2. So that's nine teams right there. that have two losses or less.
Caleb Call: Do you think all nine of those control their own destiny into the playoffs, whenever game one you schedule and you're in?
Ben Fowers: The first one that came to my mind that was like. Does Missouri really control their own destiny? But you look at their schedule, they play Texas, Georgia, Kentucky. And so if they went out there for sure.
Caleb Call: yes
Ben Fowers: And and so. When you look at those names, it's like. I feel like the SEC does get a little bit of. Like a 10 -2 SEC team feels like in the past it's like automatically been in. I'd have to go check the 12 -team playoff.
Ben Fowers: I don't know if there's been a 10 -2 SEC team that's missed it. i I don't think there has been.
Caleb Call: Vanderbilt last year.
Ben Fowers: And so. ah Vanderbilt last year.
Caleb Call: Randy missed it.
Ben Fowers: So. I guess, is there a team to the caliber of... how Vanderbilt's looked. And if you think about it, Kentucky. They have one loss, so they control their own destiny. Georgia controls their own destiny. Alabama's not considered a Vanderbilt. Florida no, Ole Miss no, LSU no.
Ben Fowers: Tennessee, no. Texas, no. Missouri. um missouri maybe but then you go read the schedule missouri has down the stretch And if they win those games, they're in. It's a...
Ben Fowers: They're in as an at -large at 10 -2. And so those nine teams all control their own destiny in SEC. I don't think it's...
Caleb Call: For sure.
Ben Fowers: that big of a shock for a lot of people. The SEC usually has a lot of the. whether whether people think it's deserved or not they have a lot of the They have more leeway than all the other conferences.
Caleb Call: Yeah, and so honestly, if you're a fan of a team that is... not in the SEC. You want the teams at the top to keep winning. As crazy as this is to sound. You probably want Kentucky to go 11 -1 because that would mean that they beat Tennessee, beat Florida, beat Missouri.
Caleb Call: So you probably want them to go 3 -0 in those games.
Ben Fowers: They eliminate three teams.
Caleb Call: Just make sure you knock out all three of those teams. And then you're in the SEC championship game. You want in Georgia probably to win out too. Because if Georgia wins each of their games, then they're going to. Give Ole Miss another loss. They're going to give Florida another loss. They're going to give Missouri another loss.
Caleb Call: So. You probably want those two teams to win out, and then it kind of gets rid of them.
Ben Fowers: you I think you just said, did you say Florida and Missouri for both Georgia and Kentucky?
Caleb Call: oh
Ben Fowers: Yeah, that's a tough schedule for those two anyways.
Caleb Call: so Yeah. There's a couple of wild card teams in there. i mean Tennessee. their schedule the rest of the way.
Caleb Call: They do play Kentucky. Coming up here on the seventh, part of just an absolutely loaded slate on the seventh.
Ben Fowers: Next week's going to be fun, man.
Caleb Call: Oh yeah. But. Tennessee's they got Kentucky. A and &M, LSU and Vandy. And so you really. Kentucky and LSU are their two main games left, and they're both in Knoxville.
Caleb Call: So if you can... Win your two big games at home and then beat A and &M beat Vandy on the road You're in the playoff if you're if you're Tennessee. so
Ben Fowers: is ted What do you think the line is for the Tennessee -Kentucky game?
Caleb Call: uh
Ben Fowers: I haven't i haven't looked at it. I would probably think it's favoring Tennessee. i don't know
Caleb Call: I would probably guess Tennessee by like. Four and a half. Yeah.
Ben Fowers: same I think it's... by a couple points.
Caleb Call: Yeah. I don't think it'll be that big. Tennessee, they've had some... rough games. they look pretty bad against Arkansas, still managed to win it. Their offense against Auburn was embarrassing, still managed to win it.
Caleb Call: Tennessee's defense is incredible.
Ben Fowers: They're kind of like a... they kind of seem like a little bit better version of Oklahoma. Like they don't have a very good offense, but has a good defense.
Caleb Call: Yeah. They're better because Mateer's not a quarterback. Their quarterback might suck, but at least he's not turning the ball over like Mateer did.
Ben Fowers: Yeah, so they're just not shooting themselves in the foot. but yeah
Caleb Call: Yeah, the Tennessee does feel like kind of an Oklahoma clone. And if you remember last year, it drove me crazy because BYU was trying to fight for a playoff spot. And Oklahoma just kept sneaking out wins in November.
Caleb Call: And maybe Tennessee can do the same.
Ben Fowers: I didn't think. Last year, I didn't think Oklahoma and Alabama were either very good, and I was kind of just waiting for either of them to lose. They both find a way in, and then they played each other. I was like, they both were lost in the first round.
Ben Fowers: I was i couldn't believe it.
Caleb Call: Both of them. Bama lost by 35 to Indiana.
Ben Fowers: Yeah. And Indiana was legit, but they just didn't even give him a game.
Caleb Call: Oklahoma lost. the
Ben Fowers: And it was just like, I did just.
Caleb Call: The way that Bama lost to Indiana is the way SEC teams say that G6 teams lose in the playoff. like that was
Ben Fowers: okay
Caleb Call: Absolute. the blow out from the start. Bama had no chance to win that game. And you just kind of sweep it under the rug if you're the SEC because you can.
Ben Fowers: Oh, Indiana's just good this year.
Caleb Call: um
Ben Fowers: and I just forget about it.
Caleb Call: Yeah. So. Anyways, there's our standings in the SEC. I agree. Those nine teams control their own destiny. And every single week, you're probably going to have one or two teams. shaved off that list this week Georgia beats, Florida Florida's off. they They might still sneak into the playoff, but they do not control anything with the third loss.
Caleb Call: Ole Miss plays Auburn this week. If Ole Miss loses that game. they're in trouble with the third loss. So that I mean, there's some potential this week. um Let's move on to the Big Ten.
Caleb Call: This is... Maybe the toughest conference to me. You for sure have three but with UCLA, Ohio State, Indiana. Nobody would have expected to hear this at the beginning of the year.
Caleb Call: Northwestern. They've got to be on that list. Northwestern still plays Ohio State on the road. They also have Oregon, Iowa, Minnesota, Illinois. like They keep winning. They're going to be sitting there 11 -1, probably in the Big Ten Championship game with an impressive resume.
Ben Fowers: Yeah, so I guess the
Caleb Call: Yeah.
Ben Fowers: The question is. for for the sake of this, do they control their own destiny? So if they go 11 and one. Like we've seen 11 -1 teams left out before. This year, it does feel a little bit more open. then past.
Ben Fowers: But does an 11 -1, does that Ohio State win jump you up enough? Right now in the AP poll, they're ranked 20. Their resume really has a... They've kind of got that. tight Indiana loss.
Ben Fowers: um I think it was 20, I think I lost by six. and
Caleb Call: 29 .23.
Ben Fowers: 29, 23, and then
Caleb Call: Their best win right now is Penn State.
Ben Fowers: day
Ben Fowers: Yeah, they don't have it
Caleb Call: So they really have not won a single meaningful game.
Ben Fowers: And Oregon looked like one of their biggest games early at Oregon, but now it's looking like a more winnable game than... um it was at the preseason and so I mean, they're 7 .5 -point dogs.
Ben Fowers: It's going to be a tough game this week for Northwestern, and they might be shaved off this list after a loss to the Oregon if they can't figure it out.
Caleb Call: Okay.
Ben Fowers: but um If they beat Oregon.
Caleb Call: I do think.
Ben Fowers: Pete Ohio State.
Caleb Call: 11 -1 Northwestern makes it in. With the Ohio State win on the road that And not only that. That probably gets him into the Big Ten championship game, like got a 90 % chance to make it in.
Caleb Call: Daily. UCLA, if they keep winning and if Indiana keeps winning. then you would lose a tiebreaker to Indiana and not make it. But if either of those teams lose, then you've got the chance to bought yourself in. and I think 11 -1 Northwestern makes it. and i think that they're Probably like the weakest team on this list.
Caleb Call: But I think you got to put them in there.
Ben Fowers: I think an 11 -1. in northwestern makes it as an out large If they're like on the bubble, say they beat they somehow get that Ohio State win and they like jump up to like 9 or 10.
Ben Fowers: and they win the tiebreaker somehow and get into the Big Ten Championship game. and go get beat by 21 points in the Big Ten Championship game to whoever's in there, Indiana, Ohio State. Um, UCLA, whoever is the other 11 -1 team. 12 -0 team if UCLA can keep winning.
Ben Fowers: Um, Does Northwestern at 11 -2 with that loss looking bad fall out?
Caleb Call: That's tough, I mean... it's going to depend on who's sitting right behind them. If it's 11 -2 Northwestern with a bad loss right there at the end and 10 -2 Notre Dame, and that's who the committee's choosing between.
Caleb Call: You're probably saying goodbye to Northwestern. um
Ben Fowers: I think the name.
Caleb Call: If it's a 9 -3 SEC team, then... Who knows? That's going to be up in the air.
Ben Fowers: I think the name brand matters more than people think. Like Northwestern, I think, gets the shaft more often than not. If that's Indiana, if that's Ohio State that that happens to, well, they're in. like
Caleb Call: And there's a reason Vanderbilt's the only SEC team.
Ben Fowers: last year Last year it happened with Bama. Last year, it happened with Bama.
Caleb Call: And we're going to go ahead and take a few minutes there.
Ben Fowers: 10 -2, they lost. They went 10 -3. And they... and It was dismissed. The SEC championship loss was dismissed, it felt like.
Caleb Call: Yeah.
Ben Fowers: and so But I think Northwestern's probably left out there. and so I, uh, it's one of those where they're 11 and one and they probably are hoping they're not in the big 10 championship. game
Caleb Call: Honestly. There is another team in the Big Ten that you have to add to the list that controls their own destiny, and it is disgusting to say this out loud. but USC.
Caleb Call: sitting at six and two. They still play Ohio State. Indiana.
Ben Fowers: Yep.
Caleb Call: and UCLA.
Caleb Call: You win all three of those games sitting at 10 -2, you're in the playoff.
Ben Fowers: A hundred percent. And USC has the name brand Northwestern doesn't have. And so they get that little bump and you get, I mean, those are big wins.
Caleb Call: Yeah.
Ben Fowers: If they go in three and on those games, UCLA, Indiana, Ohio state, those are top 10 teams, all three of them. And so they, I mean, if you do that, you probably deserve to go in at 10 and two.
Caleb Call: Nightmare Scenario USC beats... Ohio State. Beats Indiana. And then you had that game against UCLA at the end. Let's say UCLA is 11 -0 and USC loses that game. USC is probably sitting there in the top 10 going into that game.
Caleb Call: How far does USC drop? Does a three -loss USC team have a chance to make it? Who knows but that ah
Ben Fowers: Yeah.
Caleb Call: It had the impressive wins. A couple of ugly losses with the Wisconsin and Oregon games. but They're not going to. They're not winning. They might beat UCLA. I don't think they beat Indiana or Ohio State.
Ben Fowers: Indiana is kind of a weird one because Indiana is kind of in... they've proven to kind of been in these low -scoring games. and
Caleb Call: They do seem a little vulnerable for sure.
Ben Fowers: Yeah, but I just think UFC's, yeah. But they they definitely, UFC is definitely on the list. They control their own destiny. part of that group. and Yeah, they... ah the big 10 kind of has.
Caleb Call: The last thing I want to talk about in the Big Ten. Have you seen Minnesota scheduled the rest of the way? They're sitting there with two losses right now, two blowout losses, one to a bad Purdue team.
Ben Fowers: I think they play Indiana in... Is it Ohio State or UCLA? I can't remember. They play two of the top three.
Caleb Call: Indiana. UCLA Northwestern.
Ben Fowers: Yeah. Yeah. So does Minnesota control their own destiny? What are you thinking?
Caleb Call: I say no. Because their losses are so bad. And let's say UCLA finishes the year like eight and four and that win doesn't. really hold much merit at the end. I don't think an Indiana win alone guarantees a playoff spot and maybe indiana falls apart a little bit down the stretch too i i don't think there's enough meat on the bone for the losses they already have
Ben Fowers: They got, they did week two, they did get blown out by Mississippi State. and so
Caleb Call: And the Purdue blowout losses.
Ben Fowers: Ah.
Caleb Call: terrible too so
Ben Fowers: Yeah, they're not getting it at large, so they'd have to win. they'd have to get and They only have one conference loss, so they'd have to win and get in the conference championship game. I know. I guess with a win against Indiana, that would drop Indiana.
Ben Fowers: below them in the conference race. UCLA, they would have the tiebreaker over. They would have beaten Northwestern.
Caleb Call: So you would need one of UCLA or UCLA. Oh, sorry. one of UCLA or Ohio State to lose a second game. would be what they'd have to have happen.
Ben Fowers: Well, no, because they... ah They wouldn't even, if they won out, they wouldn't even have to worry about a second game because they'd have the tiebreaker. So really, they actually would knock Wisconsin off the one -loss line. They would knock with Northwestern off the one -loss line. they thought They'd knock Indiana off the one -loss line. So they played three of the teams on the one -loss line, and then they would beat Ohio State.
Ben Fowers: Or sorry, no, they wouldn't beat Ojasio.
Caleb Call: They don't play Ohio State.
Ben Fowers: UCLA, sorry, I meant UCLA. They had beat UCLA and they'd be tied with UCLA. I think they're actually in the Big Ten Championship when I just walked through that. Right?
Caleb Call: They probably would be. So I think you have to put Minnesota there as a team.
Ben Fowers: So. Minnesota controls their own destiny.
Caleb Call: that
Ben Fowers: I think the only way, and I'd have to go double check this in a... tiebreaker scenario.
Caleb Call: If a multi -team tiebreaker happened where they didn't all play each other.
Ben Fowers: I think. A three -way tiebreaker with UCLA. and Ohio State after they beat UCLA. Somehow UCLA get the first spot and Ohio State get in over them. That's the only way they're out. but Um,
Ben Fowers: Yeah, i think I think they might control their own destiny. I don't know.
Caleb Call: This Indiana game, if they beat Indiana, we will do a deeper dive into the Big Ten tiebreaker and figure it out.
Ben Fowers: yeah
Caleb Call: But right now they're 20 -point dogs.
Ben Fowers: Yeah. yeah
Caleb Call: but Still getting crazy in the sound.
Ben Fowers: Lit. they got everything's in front of them it looks like so
Caleb Call: Yeah. Minnesota, you got to consider them.
Ben Fowers: Okay.
Caleb Call: but Let's close with the Big 12. Let's go to the ACC. ACC has been kind of a gross conference this year. You know for sure Miami controls their own destiny. You've got two teams with one loss, and they play each other later this year, SMU and Wake Forest.
Caleb Call: The winner of that game, keep winning. You're in the ACC championship. So those three we know for sure. Miami, SMU, Wake Forest control their own destiny. You've got... I think one other team that merits conversation.
Caleb Call: I don't think they control their own destiny. But right now, you have a 6 -2 Virginia Tech team. who plays SMU on the road. and plays Miami on the road.
Caleb Call: Now, you could win both of those games and still miss the ACC championship game because of Wake Forest and Miami. finish with the one loss. But those are two strong wins that would jump them pretty high into the rankings. debt how How close do you think Virginia Tech is to controlling their own destiny?
Ben Fowers: um
Ben Fowers: I think with the... cat With the losses to Cal and losses to Pitt, I don't think they control their own destiny. I don't think they're that close to it either. I uh... i think the way they get in isn't through an at -large bid which Usually that's what.
Caleb Call: Yeah.
Ben Fowers: it It comes down to, can you get into the championship game by yourself or can you get in that large bid if you went out? And so they're winning out, I think would have to get them into the championship and they don't control their own destiny because.
Ben Fowers: They play Miami, and if they beat Miami, that would only be Miami's first loss. The losses to Pitt and Cal are both ACC losses. and so um on paper they could be smu to give them their second loss but they don't Wake, they don't control Wake's and they don't control Miami's.
Caleb Call: Yeah.
Ben Fowers: And so I don't think they control their own destiny. I think they're still a team that needs one or two things to happen for them.
Caleb Call: The Cal loss really just ruined what could have been a fun story this year.
Ben Fowers: Yeah.
Caleb Call: It's too bad.
Ben Fowers: yeah
Caleb Call: um
Ben Fowers: I like... a
Caleb Call: The other.
Ben Fowers: Oh man, my name just... James Franklin. i was I really like James Franklin.
Caleb Call: That's right. right
Ben Fowers: Year one there. I i think he's going to get Virginia Tech up and going in the next couple. and so He's a good coach.
Caleb Call: They're going to be a 2014 playoff. like They're going to be contending for that.
Ben Fowers: I wouldn't be surprised if they're in it next year.
Caleb Call: Nine times out of ten.
Ben Fowers: So.
Caleb Call: I'd be surprised if they weren't, honestly. The only other team that you can really think about in the ACC. And again, it's a shame. So you have Virginia Tech who plays. Miami and SMU. Duke is sitting there at 5 -2. They still play Miami. They still play Wake Forest.
Caleb Call: So... Duke's missing SMU who they would have needed to play. Virginia Tech's missing Wake Forest who they would have needed to play. but of Duke and Virginia Tech. Both.
Caleb Call: Keep winning games. then they could kind of backdoor their way to go play each other. in the ACC championship game. um I mean, we've seen Miami lose ACC games they shouldn't have before. so
Ben Fowers: They've never won the ACC.
Caleb Call: Virginia Tech.
Ben Fowers: Which is crazy.
Caleb Call: Yeah. So Virginia Tech and Duke are kind of your your chaos teams in the ACC, but it's a pretty simple conference to talk about. It's Miami at the top. the winner of SMU Wake Forest. and Maybe if the winner of that game kind of implodes and loses another game or two elsewhere, then who knows what happens.
Ben Fowers: This is what you want.
Caleb Call: Really.
Ben Fowers: In conferences, like when you're in a conference, you want the two and the three. like When they're that close, you wish they'd play each other a lot of the time. And with these big conferences, you don't always get it.
Caleb Call: Yeah.
Ben Fowers: You get it this year in the ACC, which is nice. So it seems like it's a playing game for Miami. So whoever wins the SMU Wake game gets to play Miami in the ACC title, which is usually what you want as a conference.
Ben Fowers: You want the two best teams playing, and they at least are going to settle it on the field, it seems like. so
Caleb Call: And honestly, if you are a... fan of a team that's not in the ACC, especially Big 12. You need Miami to win the ACC. You cannot have them go 12 -0.
Caleb Call: and then lose to whoever they play and let a second ACC team in. Because that just... you know eliminates in that large bid for one of your teams that are going to be fighting for the last spot.
Ben Fowers: I'm really curious to see where...
Caleb Call: Hopefully Miami can. business.
Ben Fowers: Wake is ranked. coming the CFP because They feel like they kind of got. um That Louisville win, when they beat Louisville. Um,
Caleb Call: We got a lot of credit for it.
Ben Fowers: They were like a top 15 team when they beat them, and that game doesn't look as good of a win now. and So it's like when you look at Wake's schedule, that's their biggest win is that Louisville game. and like you
Caleb Call: But... That's the biggest win if you remember Utah last year, you said it yourself. They were ranked very high, higher than we all expected them to be. But they were killing teams.
Ben Fowers: Yeah.
Caleb Call: And that's what Wake Forest is doing this year. killed Stanford, killed NC State, killed Cal. They've got Virginia this week. If they can go kill Virginia again. I wouldn't be shocked to see Wake Forest in the top 15, maybe even like.
Caleb Call: 12 or 13.
Ben Fowers: they do have I just barely pulled up the schedule. They do have a two only a two -point win against Purdue. I don't know. it It seems like a... it's just an interesting team. I don't know where they're going to be ranked. And so that's, that's one that's going to be interesting for the ACC purposes because last thing I'd want is.
Caleb Call: Yeah.
Ben Fowers: wake the I'll be like. Just flirting with like a... at the end of the season, they beat SMU and they're flirting with an at -large bid.
Caleb Call: work been
Ben Fowers: And so I kind of hoping they kind of. I almost want SMU to win that game.
Caleb Call: Yes.
Ben Fowers: and
Caleb Call: Wake Forest has a chance to do what BYU did last year, which is go 11 and... to lose to the same team twice and be in contention. I'd be pretty ticked if BOU didn't make it in and Wake Forest did make it in with the exact same resume. Now, Wake Forest lost to Miami this year, wasn't it? terrible they lost by 13 they lose again a relatively close game it's a different um Different resume.
Caleb Call: But yeah, Wake Forest. ah That's the team that... could lose the ACC and still have a chance of doing that large bid.
Ben Fowers: Here. here' Here's the scenario you want for Big 12 fans. for the ACC. You want SMU to beat Wake Forest. Then you want SMU to lose to Notre Dame, so they've got an extra loss on that schedule.
Ben Fowers: and then you want SMU to make it to the ACC. So that means SMU is in the ACC title now, and then they lose to Miami.
Caleb Call: Honestly. If I'm a Big 12 fan, what I want... is. Miami, I'm sorry. SMU and Wake Forest to both kind of fall apart. And to have Miami play a garbage team. I want Miami playing.
Caleb Call: you know. Virginia Tech or... maybe, you know, Duke or somebody. You want Miami to play a team that cannot beat Miami. But, yes, if that doesn't happen, then you would love a Tulas SMU to be playing in Miami instead.
Ben Fowers: Yeah. I just guess I was giving you more of like a what felt like a more realistic scenario. but i ah i mean I would love the top of the ACC.
Caleb Call: Yeah.
Ben Fowers: I would love the top of the SEC. I would love the top of the Big Ten to all lose their games.
Caleb Call: It would be great.
Ben Fowers: Yep.
Caleb Call: So the Big 12 now.
Ben Fowers: So.
Caleb Call: A little bit more. parody at the top than you had in the ACC. Houston probably just got eliminated, I don't think. and Unless they make the Big 12 championship game, which even that looks pretty... close to impossible at this point. I think Houston's out.
Caleb Call: So you're sitting right now with Utah alone at 4 -0 at the top of the conference. BYU, Arizona, Texas Tech, Oklahoma State all at three in one. Oklahoma State plays Texas Tech.
Caleb Call: Arizona plays Utah and Texas Tech already have a loss to BYU. BYU plays Utah, already beat Arizona. And then Utah's got... BYU in Arizona. So.
Caleb Call: The tiebreakers are going to be kind of wacky in the Big 12. Oklahoma State, for example, if they win each of their games, there's still a world where they're sitting there in a three -way tie with Utah, BYU, Arizona, two of those three teams. and You know, no guarantee that they're going to go and win the tiebreakers there. so Um...
Caleb Call: Because of the tiebreaker scenario. It's hard to say that a team like Oklahoma State controls their own destiny when... there's a chance they win other games and they don't even. make the conference championship game.
Ben Fowers: Yeah, I...
Caleb Call: So with that being said. yeah I don't think you can put him on the list.
Ben Fowers: I don't think Oklahoma State's on the list because of the Tulsa loss. So you have an out -of -conference loss, first game of the year.
Caleb Call: Yeah.
Ben Fowers: and It's tough, but you go 10 -2 and you lose a tiebreaker, which... It seems like there i mean there's five teams sitting there with zero or one losses in the Big 12. you definitely With only Texas Tech on the on their schedule remaining, they can knock Texas Tech out, but you're still sitting there with three teams. and the The thing is, though, that...
Caleb Call: If they had won the Tulsa game, this is such a different conversation.
Ben Fowers: Yeah, the thing about... Now that I'm looking at it, though, Utah BYU and Utah Arizona. So there actually is a guarantee for one team to drop below them too. So at worst, if Oklahoma State wins out, that would be a three -way tie.
Ben Fowers: So... They would have to lose a three -way tie. Um, with either Utah BYU or...
Caleb Call: And that would come down to common opponents, and then after that... conference. winning percentage of your opponents.
Ben Fowers: and open. And oh the reason I bring that up is. Oklahoma State lost to Houston, and Utah just beat Houston. So it seems like Utah would win a tiebreaker situation with Oklahoma State, depending on where it went.
Ben Fowers: assuming in that scenario
Caleb Call: Yeah.
Ben Fowers: I mean, you've got Utah losing to either BYU or Arizona probably to make them tied. um Yeah, it feels like Oklahoma State doesn't control their own destiny. destiny i don't know if they would win a tiebreaker with BYU off the top of my head. BYU just lost to UCF. They did beat UCF. so Um,
Caleb Call: So that actually could help them get above.
Ben Fowers: comment So actually, Oklahoma State might win a tiebreaker with BYU. Um, Did BYU, I guess. BYU didn't play Houston, and that's who Oklahoma State's lost to. So Oklahoma State would win a tiebreaker scenario with BYU.
Ben Fowers: Most likely. And then... What about Arizona? You look at Arizona's loss. Arizona's loss is to BYU. Oklahoma State wouldn't have played BYU. So if for some reason Arizona beat.
Ben Fowers: Utah, Utah beat BYU, so BYU would be out of it. And that three -way scenario. Does Arizona and Oklahoma State. But that's not controlling your own destiny.
Caleb Call: That comes down to...
Ben Fowers: That's like. that's hoping for stuff to happen and stuff.
Caleb Call: Yeah, you're hoping for a path.
Ben Fowers: Yeah, so there is a path.
Caleb Call: So.
Ben Fowers: There is a path. I don't think ah I hadn't walked through that, all those tiebreakers. so if you're a If you're a BYU fan, you're probably cheering for Tech right now over Oklahoma State in that game.
Caleb Call: And Tex lost to Cincinnati. BYU played Cincinnati and would give them the tiebreaker win over.
Ben Fowers: Yeah.
Caleb Call: Thanks, Nick, because of it.
Ben Fowers: uah Utah and BYU don't care if Texas Tech stays in it because they both... In those scenarios, if Utah beats Cincinnati and if BYU beats Cincinnati, they end up all three tied. That Texas Tech loss to Cincinnati is brutal because Cincinnati plays them all. And they play Arizona, I think, right?
Ben Fowers: And so.
Caleb Call: Yeah, they already lost to Arizona.
Ben Fowers: They already lost Arizona. Yeah, so Texas Tech, I mean if that area Cincinnati losses is
Caleb Call: It's going to bite you in the butt.
Ben Fowers: quadruple bad. Yeah, because all the top teams that you could potentially be a tiebreaker with, Texas Tech seems like they're on the team that's going to be on the outside looking in because of the common opponent.
Caleb Call: Yeah.
Caleb Call: so Oklahoma State we can confidently say does not control their own destiny. Utah, BYU, Arizona, Texas Tech feel great about seeing all four of them do. Arizona and Texas Tech played each other this week, elimination game. Whoever loses is done.
Caleb Call: Unless somehow you make the conference championship if there's a bunch of losses down the stretch for the contenders.
Ben Fowers: But you don't control your destin own destiny at that point.
Caleb Call: so and Yes, you don't control it. There's just a chance you backdoor your way in. so after this week
Ben Fowers: Yeah, we're just... we're just saying like if you win out your end no matter what happens around the conference like there's definitely teams where it's like oh if this happens this happens then they can find their way back in.
Ben Fowers: But we're just, we're making a list.
Caleb Call: Oh, yeah, even some of these two -loss teams. like For example, Cincinnati. Two conference losses.
Ben Fowers: Mm -hmm
Caleb Call: day. Still play Utah. They still play BYU. They already beat Texas Tech. If they win out. they probably have about a 50 % chance to be the conference championship game. They would need a teeny bit of help, but it wouldn't be much. So. like Cincinnati is a team that...
Ben Fowers: Not on the list.
Caleb Call: You win now. Yeah, you're not on the list, but if you went out, you're feeling decent.
Ben Fowers: but
Ben Fowers: Yeah. Yeah, and I mean... That's what. That's what's kind of fun about the. There is a little bit of fun. uh nist to the big conferences because it's like not everyone plays everybody so there is a little chaos that way and so it It causes...
Caleb Call: Yeah.
Ben Fowers: a lot of these big games that even mean more. Like I feel like the. like This utah arizona or the Utah -Arizona game is going to mean a lot because Arizona is in the mix. The Utah -BYU game is obviously huge. the Texas Tech Arizona game. I just mean so much more because there's not all these like Texas Tech doesn't play. BYU doesn't play Utah. and So if you lose a game like that, you can't afford to lose it because you're not going to be able to control your own destiny to get back in. and so It's a...
Ben Fowers: It's kind of a fun one.
Caleb Call: and
Ben Fowers: Cincinnati is definitely a team that's... a To keep eyes on, I think that's one of the two lost teams that's feeling the best about themselves just because they still got Utah, they still got BYU.
Caleb Call: So then... Notre Dame they control their own destiny G6.
Ben Fowers: Yep.
Caleb Call: Boise State controls their own destiny.
Ben Fowers: Mm hmm.
Caleb Call: Does Oregon State?
Ben Fowers: Yeah, we were talking about this last week. I ah i initially said no. um But with James Madison losing last week. I... i think there's a real argument they do and
Caleb Call: The question would come down to... like Right now you've got UTSA with one loss. It does a 12 -1 UTSA. get in over 11 -2 Oregon State. UTSA's loss is a 24 point loss to Texas.
Caleb Call: Oregon State's got losses to Texas Tech and Houston.
Ben Fowers: And I think. I was looking at UTSA's schedule. Their schedule's not great. And. I think that is Oregon State. Um, It's hard to say it's definitive, but I do think an 11 -2 Oregon State with... probably two wins over Boise State at that point.
Ben Fowers: is there would be better wins than... anything UTSA has done at that point.
Caleb Call: So controlling your own destiny means no matter what.
Ben Fowers: Amen.
Caleb Call: if you win every game on your schedule. There's a world where Oregon State's schedule kind of falls apart. What if Boise who loses to Texas State this week? And what if... Houston ends up dropping three of their last four games and they end up sitting at seven and five.
Caleb Call: Then all of a sudden their resume kind of gets depleted. You're two wins over Boise. Maybe even you play Texas State. in the Pac -12 championship game. like I think there's a world where or UTSA does make it over.
Caleb Call: Oregon State they're gonna have the better record which helps The American is probably perceived as an equal. But Oregon State. They have the flashy factor. People watch them. They they have put them up points. They got the greed. People can actually name players in Oregon State.
Caleb Call: I bet you nobody can name a UTSA player across the country. And as much as that shouldn't matter, it does. So I...
Ben Fowers: Yeah.
Caleb Call: They are very, very close, but I just do think that there are a few things that they don't control that could lead to UTSA being higher.
Ben Fowers: Yeah, and UTSA... It's tough because when I was looking at their schedule last week, I was like. oh they Um, They beat up. Bad Navy team, 38 -34, so barely beat a bad Navy team. they beat South Florida, who's not a bad team, at 5 -2.
Caleb Call: Barely beat Rice, too.
Ben Fowers: barely beat a bad Rice team in 16 -14. I was like, oh, they're probably going to lose a game here. And they did just barely blow out Tulane. But they they've got FAU on the schedule, who's 5 -3. They got North Texas on the schedule, who's undefeated in conference play. is They're 6 -2 overall because...
Ben Fowers: North Texas had a tough non -conference. They played Indiana. And. And I ended up losing to Texas State, so a Mount West team, which isn't great if... North Texas wins out, but.
Ben Fowers: and then they also got uab who's towards the top of the conference and then um Tulsa is
Caleb Call: Tolstoy had the big win.
Ben Fowers: Yeah, it just it seems like to me when I was looking at it, and at the time I even thought Tulane was a game. that they could potentially lose. They ended up blowing Tulane out. but It doesn't feel like UTSA, like I don't see 4 -0 there. And so for me, I don't see UTSA.
Ben Fowers: doing it anyways but Like you said, it's not controlling your own destiny if you're over in state. And so. right now um i guess is there another G5 team that you think has a shot to to knock off a Mountain West team.
Caleb Call: There's one Jason X. New Mexico Lobos. 8 point loss to Oklahoma. They just beat North Dakota State. Right now in New Mexico.
Caleb Call: it would be pretty shocking to not see them in the Mountain West Championship game. there If New Mexico is 12 -1.
Ben Fowers: They're over UTSA.
Caleb Call: UTSA 12 -1.
Ben Fowers: I think New Mexico.
Caleb Call: I mean yeah. New Mexico. The issue with Mexico's schedule is a lot of the Mountain West is like bad, bad. And UNLV is down. They were supposed to be good preseason. They're not having a great year.
Caleb Call: Northern Illinois is 0 -7. UTEP, one and six. Hawaii, two and six. like you You needed a little bit more meat on the schedule. So i New Mexico, if they end up undefeated, their best win is probably going to be North Dakota State.
Caleb Call: which maybe that's better than UTSA's best win. But it feels like right now the race is Boise State's to lose. And if they do lose. then It opens the door to UTSA, to New Mexico, to Oregon State.
Caleb Call: And here's another interesting scenario. Picture this. Right now, the way it's set up. The playoff takes the top G6 team. They do not care if you won your conference.
Caleb Call: So let's say Boise he beats Oregon State. They go 11 -1. Oregon State goes 9 -3. They rematch in the Pac -12 championship game. And Oregon State beats Boise. it's So now you've got 10 -3 Oregon State, 11 -2 Boise. Oregon State just beat Boise in that game.
Caleb Call: Boise is probably still making it at 11 -2. So if you're Boise... You don't really even necessarily have to win the Pac -12 championship. You just need to get there 11 -1. And I think your lead over the rest of the pack. will be big enough that an 11 -1 Boise.
Caleb Call: could lose and still make it over. 12 -1 New Mexico, 12 -1. um whoever else, 12 -in -1 UTSA. Really, if you're Boise State.
Caleb Call: You just got to win out in the regular season, and you're probably a playoff team this year.
Ben Fowers: Yeah it What's the... And that flex week. For Boise, What's the... Doesn't Boise have a flex week their last week of the season?
Caleb Call: Yeah, and the Pack Club really hasn't even put out their protocol for it yet. So right now they're slated to the play Utah State twice. If Boise State and Oregon State are both like pushing to be playoff teams. I think the Pac -12 will try and give them easy games.
Caleb Call: to then go let them kind of be ready to play each other Um, it let Let's say. Texas State, they're kind of sitting there like they could be a potential team to... kind of stick around in the standings. Maybe they end up giving Texas State a shot to play one of the two contenders and kind of play their way in.
Ben Fowers: an Oregon State or something.
Caleb Call: but Yeah, so. We'll see that the flex stick will be interesting. um
Ben Fowers: For those of – I don't know if everyone's heard about the Flex Week. So the Pac -12 has eight teams. Everybody plays everybody. So you play seven games on your schedule. They they told everybody – week.
Ben Fowers: The last week of the season, the 12th game of the year. isn't going to be scheduled until the week before. And so. the PAC 12 is going to basically look and see what's best for the conference at getting the neck. that G five spot.
Ben Fowers: And so if that's playing your best and your second best teams, they're going to give them that matchup right now. It looks like Boise is probably.
Caleb Call: However,
Ben Fowers: controlling their own destiny so Um,
Caleb Call: so one wrinkle to that. The Flex Week. They already determined who the four home teams are and who the four road teams are. You ready for this list of road teams?
Ben Fowers: Yep.
Caleb Call: Boise?
Ben Fowers: Okay.
Caleb Call: Oregon State. Texas State So the three teams that are at the top of the standings right now that all control their own destiny to make the conference championship. None of them can play each other in the flex week.
Caleb Call: So it's guaranteed.
Ben Fowers: oh
Caleb Call: that those three will not match up against each other, will match up against other teams.
Ben Fowers: That's kind of lame.
Caleb Call: so really the next week is gonna
Ben Fowers: That's kind of lame actually because if I was the just thinking right now if I was the Pac -12 I'm thinking. um If Boise gets knocked off by Oregon State, I want Oregon State's resume.
Ben Fowers: to be able to knock off a UTSA, to knock off a New Mexico. and so I would almost want to put Oregon State against Texas State. So it's like I'm getting the best of the second.
Caleb Call: Yeah.
Ben Fowers: Like I'm getting like more on my resume of my number two team in case they beat Boise State, in in case they. can go.
Caleb Call: And it's tough. They could have done that.
Ben Fowers: Make it wrong.
Caleb Call: had they had nine conference games. But since they have seven and then the flex week. You have some playing three home, some playing four home. And so you you have. you know Just for fairness sake, you have to even it out. It's part of the issue of just having an eight -team conference. that They needed to have a ninth member. and Maybe that'll change in the future. but the The FlexPix is a fun idea.
Caleb Call: It's just kind of a shame that this year it's not really going to matter much because of the...
Ben Fowers: And you get locked. You kind of get cornered into your games. but
Caleb Call: Yeah. So. To add that all up. What we had. Nine SEC teams. That list is going to be shrunk a little bit. here soon. We had six Big Ten teams. That list included USC, included Northwestern, included Minnesota, as crazy as that sounds.
Caleb Call: That list could shrink to... four, maybe even three teams after this week. The Big 12 has four. That's going to be three by the end of the week once Texas Tech and Arizona play.
Caleb Call: The SEC has nine, so we're sitting there at 15. 19. ACC had three, Miami SMU Wake, so 22 teams. notre dame to make it. 23 teams.
Caleb Call: Boise to make it 24. so ironically 24 teams control their path. We're going to have a 2014 playoff next year. Only a 12 -team playoff this year. If we had a 2014 playoff right now.
Caleb Call: like If you're BYU, you lose to UCF. and You just kind of shrugging your shoulders I go well is like we can even still lose to you time as long as we just don't implode down the stretch you're in so It changes the math and it's.
Caleb Call: If BYU misses the playoff this year, and they spent three seasons chasing the 12 -team playoff and just narrowly missing it three straight times. And then the 2014 era comes in. It'll feel like a missed opportunity and just a disappointment. I wish.
Caleb Call: You know, it'd be great that the 2014 playoffs now, but. We got the 12 -team playoff. We got 24 teams. that control their own destiny. probably still 40 teams that have a path to make it. I would guess, probably somewhere between 35 and 40.
Ben Fowers: Yeah. it's kind of a Going back to the the last G5 spot. I kind of like Oregon State, going back to Oregon State, like they scheduled Houston. They scheduled Texas Tech, and they actually played two pretty tough games.
Ben Fowers: Like.
Caleb Call: They almost beat Texas Tech and Houston both. They had chances in the fourth quarter in both those games.
Ben Fowers: And it's like. Well, I don't know. What do you and like? Basically, if you You keep them out over like a UTSA. who has I mean I guess they play Texas. Bye.
Caleb Call: They scheduled Texas. And they played Texas pretty tough, actually.
Ben Fowers: If they... If they flip the schedules. Like. UTSA loses to Houston in Tech. And then Oregon State probably just loses to Texas. So it's like. are you and Are you incentivizing them not to schedule two big teams like that so you don't get two losses to the G5?
Ben Fowers: i yeah I really would hope Oregon State would get it in that scenario just because. If UTSA switches them schedules, they lose those two games too.
Caleb Call: It's tough to say, and I think Oregon State. Probably nine times out of ten gets in over UTSA.
Ben Fowers: I almost.
Caleb Call: The issue with Oregon State.
Ben Fowers: the The more I think about this, i I think Oregon State actually adds that list. I think it's 25.
Caleb Call: Yeah. It's what I said. Controlling your own destiny means whatever other teams do doesn't matter. If Houston and Boise start losing games and all of a sudden Oregon State's best win is... eight and five boys you could they beat twice Houston ends up seven and five. like or Oregon State's resume. Really is banking on Houston, Texas Tech, and Boise all continuing to win games.
Caleb Call: If those three teams start losing games, then... all of a sudden it's a different story. oregon state does have like i said the flashy factor they have been scoring points on everybody I think it would be shocking for 11 -2 Oregon State to not make it over 12 -1 UTSA.
Caleb Call: But there is a path that they don't control where that could still happen.
Ben Fowers: Would you? And in New Mexico even. like Is 12 -0 New Mexico and 12 -0 UTSA?
Caleb Call: in the actual group.
Ben Fowers: Do you think it's probably New Mexico there?
Caleb Call: I think it's UTSA and I think it's because of conference strength. I don't think. And maybe New Mexico, I mean, they they were good last year. They kind of have the. you know to your credit there but Jeff Traylor and Jason Necker both head coaches that.
Caleb Call: Could be coaching somewhere else next year there. Yeah. I don't know. that That would be a very tough call. And honestly, I wouldn't have a problem with either one of those teams. Being a West Coast guy, I'd probably rather see New Mexico go.
Caleb Call: But. I wouldn't be shocked if it were either one of them.
Ben Fowers: That was just so I wanted to say that about our exact I do kind of lean them on the list as well. So
Caleb Call: they're They're as close as you could possibly be. If UTSA loses one more game, I think 11 -2 Oregon State would always make it over 12 -1 New Mexico. I just think the American has enough. kind of cachet built as a conference to where There is a path UTSA could still get it and now UTSA has been playing close ugly games the committee doesn't love that they they like the flashy which oregon state does bring um so maybe I I don't have a problem with you putting them on the list I just...
Caleb Call: If things fall apart on their schedule, I don't think they fully control that. And I.
Ben Fowers: I just think they, I, like you said, I think the fashion is matters more than.
Caleb Call: Who knows?
Ben Fowers: people want it to matter and i I do think they get in over 12 -1.
Caleb Call: If Oregon State wins every game on their schedule by 20 points or more the rest of the way, they would make it over 12 -1.
Ben Fowers: tsa
Caleb Call: TSA. So they they do control that aspect. Now... When you say control your own destiny, does that include controlling you winning by 40 points in each of those games? that's You know, like...
Caleb Call: Taking the the the thought experiment to another level. So... Yeah, Oregon State's right there. And honestly... If I were to guess, like if you were to tell me that. one of these G6 teams that makes it.
Caleb Call: wins a playoff game. It's Boise or Oregon State. UTSA is not going to beat somebody. New Mexico. probably not going to beat somebody. They did give Oklahoma a game this year.
Caleb Call: it It would be like Oregon State would agree. You already saw them almost beat Tech and almost beat Houston. Boise almost beat Oregon, granted Oregon. kind of sucks this year but
Ben Fowers: And Legree signing his NIL for next year, that, I mean. That's got to give Oregon State the bump, right?
Caleb Call: No. Shout out, by the way, Oregon State opens the season next year in Provo, so we got we're going to have Legree in Provo. for week one
Ben Fowers: kind of an interesting guy like only a three -star guy but he's from year day one he kind of just
Caleb Call: um But yeah.
Caleb Call: yeah
Ben Fowers: blew up so
Caleb Call: So we'll... ah We won't spend as long talking about teams that control their own destiny, but we've we've got our list. We're going to call it 25. We'll include Oregon State. We've got a list of 25. every single week.
Caleb Call: we will take teams off of that list. And so we'll at least tell you.
Ben Fowers: And maybe add some depending on what happens.
Caleb Call: And maybe ask them if conference races change, if there's some fluid to do there. so We'll uh... Any updates to that list will go over every single week in our preview episodes. um and our recap episodes after week's end. Anyways, yeah, thanks for listening.
Caleb Call: um Great having you guys back on the Holy War Pod. Caleb and Ben, we'll be back with a recap on Monday next week. Go Cougs.
Ben Fowers: You're used, baby.
