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Under the Banyan Tree – More facts you didn't know you needed
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Fred's got his hands on Herald's latest compilation of quirky facts and stats. From giant shopping malls to a company you've probably never heard of outperforming Google, this episode's for anyone looking to flex some knowledge at holiday parties.
Click here for appropriate Disclosures, including analyst certifications, and Disclaimers that must be viewed with this podcast: https://www.research.hsbc.com/R/101/qKmt7KV
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Transcript
Introduction to HSBC Global Viewpoint Podcast
00:00:01
Speaker
Welcome to HSBC Global Viewpoint, the podcast series that brings together business leaders and industry experts to explore the latest global insights, trends, and opportunities.
00:00:13
Speaker
Make sure you're subscribed to stay up to date with new episodes. Thanks for listening, and now onto today's show.
Meet the Hosts: Harold van Linde & Fred Newman
00:00:33
Speaker
Hello from Hong Kong and welcome to Under the Banyard Tree. I'm Harold van Linde, head of Asian Equity Strategy here at HSBC. And I'm Fred Newman, chief Asia economist, currently poring over yet another stellar collection of facts and figures compiled by my esteemed co-host.
00:00:50
Speaker
That's very kind of you to say, Fred. My team and I have been working very hard to put this compilation together. I'm going to let you pick your favorites and then we can see how they help us put Asian markets and economics in context.
00:01:02
Speaker
Exactly. That's what we do here on the podcast from HSBC Global Investment Research. You're listening to Under the Banyan Tree.
00:01:23
Speaker
So, Harold, a great number of statistics here that you dug out again,
Spotlight on Shenzhen's Popular Mall
00:01:27
Speaker
i have to say. And one that stuck out for me was you label it the great mall of China, quote unquote, because that's not actually the the name of the mall. But there is a shopping mall in Shenzhen, which is just across the border from Hong Kong in mainland China. And you say that this is the most visited mall in all of mainland China. How many visitors go there every single day? Yeah, i believe it is the most visited mall in all of China. It might be that from one day to another, another mall somewhere else does a little bit better. But there are 80,000 people going to that mall every day. It's a massive mall, of course. That's ah the average of a whole European midsize city that goes there. But imagine this. The number of people that go to that mall every day is the same number of people that visit the Viva World Cup final.
00:02:13
Speaker
so That's about 80,000 people as well. And they have that every day. And and you say actually that amounts to 28 million visitors in 2024, which is actually more people than visited Niagara Falls over the past year and and presumably many more than got married Niagara. Niagara Falls. and and Many would would get married to Niagara Falls. But um Niagara Falls is maybe not the place to look for. It's actually Hong Kong. There would be a lot of Hong Kong people go there. I have been in front of the mall, but I've not been inside the mall, I must admit. Was it too many people you couldn't get in? um Yeah, I was actually going to another mall.
00:02:50
Speaker
But there's, of course, a lot of Hong Kong people that that go every weekend to Shenzhen across the border because ah goods and services are much cheaper there. And they would be one of the constituents that that that populate that mall every weekend.
00:03:03
Speaker
But it just reminds you of the sheer numbers when it comes from main to mainland China. exactly we we tend We tend to talk about weak consumer spending at the moment. But then if you go to some of these malls, you just see how much purchasing power this still sits within the country. Yeah, it's it's fairly incredible sometimes. That's right.
China's Innovation in Humanoid Robotics
00:03:20
Speaker
Now, here's another ah statistic, sticking with China. um Robots, robots on the rise. And you're saying here that China has filed about 6,000 humanoid robot patents since 2020. And that is more than four times the US. What's going on there? Yeah, so this I think is interesting because in human-eyed robots, it seems the US has taken the lead. But China is really catching up. And there are no human-eyed robots. You can buy them at a fraction of the price in the US. They seem to be pretty good. there was some um I think there was some sort of running competition earlier this year in football matches. And people laughed a bit about it. oh They're not really so good. But this is just to train these robots, right? And so you've to look a couple of years ahead. So they're really trying to catch up there. And there seems to be a lot of innovation going in there insofar. It reminds me also, it's not just humanoid robots. It's also dog-anoid robots. Doganoids. Yeah, doganoids. Because at the HSC's Shenzhen conference right in September, we had a ah you know a display of of dog robots. yeah and And they dance in unison and yeah they they can talk and I guess sing. That's right. So that's not something that I would personally be looking for because I don't need a dancing robot robot in my house. But industrial robots, but also think about support in an aging society. there's There's actually very productive use to these things. And I guess actually dogs as well. People sometimes look for companionship, right?
00:04:48
Speaker
yeah and this is, I guess, the cute end of the spectrum when comes to of robots because when you look at industrial robots, China last year in 2024 installed more industrial robots than the entire rest of the world combined. Yeah, industrial robots are really ahead of anybody else. Yeah, and they now have more industrial robots per worker. than you find in Japan or Germany or even the US. And that's so – this image of a Chinese factory being full of workers who stitch things together, that may have been true up until five years ago. and Today, actually, the average Chinese factory is more automated than the average American factory. Absolutely. Absolutely. So there's another great
Investment Opportunities: ICTSI vs Google
00:05:31
Speaker
stat. um But I wanted to move on. Here is one. And and you, of course, look at the equity markets. So equity returns over time yeah something you're you're drawn to. But do you make the comparison between Google and something called ICTSI. Explain to us what that is. Yeah, so ICT is company that very few people in the world would know. It's a Philippine port operator. So they have ports in in the Philippines, in Southeast Asia, but also in Ecuador, in South America, and all kinds of places. And they they manage these ports. These people do this extremely well.
00:06:03
Speaker
Global trade has, of course, helped as well. But since Google listed, and that was in 2004, This company was listed already at the time. If you look at the share price performance, it has massively outperformed Google. And Google itself has done phenomenally well.
00:06:19
Speaker
But people wouldn't know this company. And this is, once again, to show that very often we talk about Asian stock markets and say, oh, they haven't done so far this year. But it's such a diverse sort of universe and that there are interesting corners of there of companies that you really need to dig up. And then you end up with, for example, a port operator that over the last 25 years has has performed better than now some of the biggest companies on the planet. There's only one problem here. You should have told me that in 2004, not in 2025. Well, this is why you need to read our research now because we tell you now what's going to happen in the next 25 years.
00:06:52
Speaker
Yeah, but this this port operator is is interesting. And i think I think you pick on a really interesting kind of comparison here because Google, of course, is now benefiting from AI. It's at an edge of sort of what's technologically possible. It's it's a top tech company.
00:07:07
Speaker
ICTSI is a port operator, as you say, but it's even is it' more niche than that because it's a port operator that really goes into other emerging markets, goes into secondary ports very often. And so what this highlights is that um this is a company that benefits from the trade between emerging markets. It's sort of found a very particular niche. And so I think the broader story here is that, yes, it's amazing what's going on the top end of tech, But also there's so much more energy, economic energy is being unleashed in the global south and trade between emerging markets. And that certainly yeah is something that that has boomed over the last 20 years. yeah
00:07:49
Speaker
Now, here's another
Economic Growth: China vs India
00:07:51
Speaker
stat. and And now we go back to mainland China and Hong Kong because the market capitalization, that's the value of all the stocks being listed there. That has done very, very well over the past year. Since August 24, in fact, it's increased by 6.9 trillion US dollars. Why is that a significant number? That's significant just – Just to take a step back, 6.9, so say 7 trillion US dollars. That's a lot, right? So the increase in the market value in China, this the size of the Indian market in total, the total size of India. So in China, we've just added on an Indian market. and
00:08:31
Speaker
This is just, again, what you said earlier on, in China, these the numbers are sometimes just so big. And India is a sizable market. It's just astonishing. yeah That's fascinating. It reminds me of another statistic, by the way. Now, this is an economic statistic, not an equity statistic, so you might need to pay some attention. to and The current difference in size between the Chinese economy and the Indian economy is about 15 trillion US dollars, which is enormous, right? and That's just the size of the economies.
00:09:02
Speaker
And that's roughly equivalent to the European Union in terms of the difference. yeah Now, we're very optimistic about India's growth prospects. And let's say they grow over 7% over the next 10 years. And let's say China slips and grows only by 3.5% on average over the next 10 years. India would double actually in the next 10 years. yeah and It might double. Yes, it might double. um But what would be the difference in size between China and India?
00:09:29
Speaker
India in 10 years' time. Oh, you would think they would almost catch up, right? Well, actually, turns out China is going to be 2 trillion even larger than India. And that's the law of large numbers. That is, even if you grow more slowly... Because the 3% over a very large number... Is much...
00:09:44
Speaker
It's much more than the 7% over a smaller number. of Yeah. and and that And that logic um yeah know explains also why it's so hard to catch up ah in globally in economic terms. It's why it's hard for even the mainland Chinese economy catch up to the United States um because you know even though the United States grows much more slowly than China does even today,
00:10:05
Speaker
The U.S. just adds more GDP every single year. and And that's why, yes, you can be bullish on India, but China is really enormous in terms of size. yes Harold, fascinating as always. um These are, again, great stats.
00:10:18
Speaker
We just touched on a few of many you dug out here. And this is obviously a series. In 2026, we've talked about these. Some more amazing stats from the equity work from Harold van der Linde.
00:10:29
Speaker
Excellent. Thank you very much, Fred.
Podcast Conclusion & Promotion
00:10:31
Speaker
Well, dear listeners, all good things must come to an end and we're going to have to wrap things up. Thank you for joining us under the banyan tree and we'll be back with our final episode of 2025 next week.
00:10:42
Speaker
That's right. In the meantime, give our sister podcast, The Macro Brief, a listen for the latest economic trends shaping investments around the world. Bye for now.
00:11:15
Speaker
Thank you for joining us at HSBC Global Viewpoint. We hope you enjoyed the discussion. Make sure you're subscribed to stay up to date with new episodes.