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Baylor Goes Down in OT & We're #1 Again + A Trip back to OU for the Sampsons Next
78 Plays1 year ago
Welcome to Episode 18 of the No Conference for Old Men Podcast.
The Cougars are now 25-3, 12-3 in the Big 12, still alone atop the Big 12 conference standings, & #1 in the Nation once again!!! All this was achieved after punching Baylor in the mouth to win in OT in Waco & then battling fatigue to survive a physical battle with Cincy at home. We begin this episode with a summary of the Baylor & Cincy games, highlight the other Big 12 games each of us identified last week, then transition to previewing the upcoming OU & UCF games this week, and wrap up with a new set of Big 12 games to watch out for.
- No Conference for Old Men is available for free via Spotify / Apple Podcast / SoundCloud & the GoCoogs.com website; we're also available via the Republic of Football Podcast feed from the folks at Dave Campbell's Texas Football as their only basketball-centric offering
- Intro / Exit music: Ground Zero provided by FreeBeats.io
- Please follow us on https://gocoogs.com/old-men/
Recommended
Transcript
Introduction to Episode 18
00:00:05
Speaker
Welcome, folks, to the 18th episode of No Conference for Old Men, the podcast where three old guys are talking Houston and Cougar's basketball with a bit of Big 12 coverage added in as well, and proud members of the gocougs.com network, the undisputed number one Houston Cougars content provider.
Houston Cougars' Performance Recap
00:00:22
Speaker
Having just completed the most grueling and arguably the most pivotal stretch of games for us this conference season, our Houston Cougars are 11-1 over the last 12 games and remain in sole possession of first place in the Big 12, after again relying on RD to take care of a road win at Baylor, as well as fighting off fatigue and sweeping Cincy at home.
00:00:45
Speaker
It was a total team effort to win these past two games with Roberts and then Cryer taking turns leading the charge to the wins. And now we're atop the standings with our final stretch of three games to go. Hopefully the team will be well rested and recovered as they travel to Norman to play OU for our only meeting of the year with them and then to UCF to complete the return mirror game for a tough two road game stretch. So lots to discuss this week again.
Hosts and Episode Format
00:01:12
Speaker
And today, all three of us are back again with Tom Lydiak, former coach, Bill Walker, former player, and myself, Steve Chang, analytics guy for this episode. Same format, summarizing Houston's two wins this past week, then a quick update on the Big 12 games we each highlighted last week, then pivot to the preview of the upcoming two games, and finally round up some additional Big 12 games of interest. So let's get right into
Baylor Game Analysis: Key Players and Strategies
00:01:37
Speaker
it.
00:01:37
Speaker
Tale of two halves in our OT win over Baylor in what was probably our biggest win of the season, given it was on the road in Waco. In recapping the Cougars road win over Baylor, Tom, why don't you kick us off with your coach's thoughts on our 8276 OT win that left fans elated with another win over the hated Bears in our inaugural season in the Big 12. Well, first off, I think that game took about 20 years off my life.
00:02:05
Speaker
If you've been a Cougar fan for very long, 41-25 lead is nothing, especially against a good team. But I was excited to watch this game for several different reasons. One, we're ranked in the top. I think we were what number two coming in. Baylor was number 11. I think it was an electric crowd. Another reason is coming from the coaching perspective, I was interested to see what defense Baylor would come out in.
00:02:32
Speaker
Some of you guys know that Scott Drew played that zone defense for a lot of years. Then he went back to man to man, I think around the championship year. But this year right before, right during the Iowa State game, he came back out in his 113. So I was interested to see what defense they would come out in and they indeed came out in the the 113.
00:02:55
Speaker
One thing I want to get out of the way, it's some people call it a 131. It's not a 131. It looks like a 131. But what you have is you have the two guards up top. They play what's called a tandem. Basically, one plays the ball while the other one plays the high post. I call it the logo area.
00:03:13
Speaker
You have your X5, your big missy in the middle, and then you have two wings that extend high, and that's what makes it look like a 131. The wings extend high because they're there to take away any kind of rhythm three from the pass from the point to the wing.
Houston's Offensive and Defensive Dynamics Against Baylor
00:03:29
Speaker
They get in the passing lane and they're trying to make the ball lob to the corner that gives them a little air time to recover to the corner man.
00:03:37
Speaker
It's a 1-1-3. It's not pure zone. It has, they do match up out of it. And I'll talk about that a little bit more in the second half where it's hard to tell what defense they're in because of the matchup principles. But anyway, they started off in their 1-1-3 and first eight possessions, we scored on four of them. And then Baylor goes man to man and
00:04:03
Speaker
We proceed to score on seven of the next eight possessions versus their man to man. And then Baylor goes back to other 113, except for on baseline out of bounds place.
00:04:14
Speaker
And then from there, they had, I think the next two based on out of bounds place we had against their man and man, we scored on those also. So man and man was definitely not the defense to play against U of H. We ended up going 10 for 12 against Baylor's man and man in the first half. The only time we didn't score.
00:04:34
Speaker
was LJ had a wide open transition three that he missed. And the other time was when we had like seven and a half seconds left on the clock in the first half and we had a sideline out of bounds play. So it seemed like you said, it was a tale of two halves, 41, 25 at halftime. They outscored us, it looks like 44 to 28. I know some people talked about our offense in the second half, but
00:04:59
Speaker
I probably spent about five or six hours on this game, just because I was intrigued at how we attacked their zone. Because you don't see it much anymore in college basketball for a lot of different reasons. But spent a lot of time and I thought our second half offense was good. We threw the ball away one time, one time. JVA just waited. He could probably just dunked it and then he ends up getting underneath the basket and throws up almost like an air ball. We missed some open threes.
00:05:29
Speaker
I didn't think anything was wrong with our offense in the second half, but I did think there was something wrong with our defense. And I went through each possession and we just had some breakdowns on defense, which is kind of uncharacteristic of us. You gotta give a lot of credit to Scott Drew for kind of a chess match him and Kelvin were playing with. They did go with four perimeters. Jalen Bridges was a matchup nightmare.
00:05:54
Speaker
A couple of times on based on out of bounds place, we go man to man, but we put one of our bigs on the ball and they had a guard bring the ball in. So they brought it in and our big was caught on one of their guards. One time Jojo was caught on, I think it was Ray J and he took him off the dribble. And another time I think it was JBA was on the ball and they brought it in and just some, I think it was none that took him off the dribble to the hole.
00:06:23
Speaker
I don't think Joanne has a whole lot of experience guarding on the perimeter and there were several times where there was some miscommunication between Joanne and another one of our players. I think it was LJ one time where they just set a simple pin down screen and Joanne was late getting out there. And you know, it's what they say in the NBA is hand down, man down.
Counteracting Baylor's Strengths
00:06:45
Speaker
I mean, if you're not there on the catch.
00:06:47
Speaker
They're going to drain them. Baylor did hit some incredible shots. They did. I think Bridges hit one from the M on that mark guy's name that donated to the court, I think it was. I mean, he's the sweetest shooting stretch for I've seen in college this year. Just incredible.
00:07:07
Speaker
Basketball is a game of mistakes and victory favors the team that makes the less of them. So it might sound harsh when I go through some of these defensive possessions, but that's just what I saw. And of course, Baylor missed some of the same shots in the first half that they made in the second half, but I just didn't think our defense was where it needed to be in the second half. How about you, Bill? What do you think from a player's perspective?
00:07:32
Speaker
Well, in my opinion, Baylor's the scariest team in the conference, especially as it pertains to us. I mean, Iowa State, don't get me wrong. They're really good, really, really good. They're going to end up the number two seed in the conference tournament.
00:07:49
Speaker
But they're just a slightly lesser version of us. Everyone for Baylor minus their athletic seven footer, Musi is really a three level score. They are really good offensively. And they were scary versus us offensively. The key was that they were only scary in the second half, not in the first half and not especially in overtime.
00:08:17
Speaker
They only scored 25, as you alluded to, Tom, the first half. They scored seven at overtime, but there were a couple of basically uncontested layups right at the end when the game had already been decided. So we stepped up when we needed to. I'd previously stated that one thing we needed to do against them, because they do basically play four guards. I know Bridges is a little taller.
00:08:42
Speaker
played forward as well, but he's really a big guard. We needed to dominate the boards. We needed to score inside. We needed to protect the ball to win. They out rebounded us by eight, which I did not expect, but Roberts and Francis were actually really good, especially on the offensive end, 11 of 14 from the floor. Roberts went seven of nine and scored 17, eight rebounds for assists.
00:09:11
Speaker
turnovers. We talked about them being susceptible to turning the ball over a lot. We committed eight for the game. They committed 19. We created 14 steals to their four. That all goes to the defense, which is always just outstanding. I mean, this is one of the best offensive teams in the nation. They scored 66 points in overtime. So just a great defensive game. I know
00:09:40
Speaker
time you'd mentioned to some defensive lapses. But if we give up 66 to Baylor in overtime, I'm okay with that every single time. Yeah, agreed. There were just some things that we didn't do correctly. Like one time JVA didn't come out on the line of scrimmage on a pick and roll. And then he ended up getting just obliterated on a drive to the basket. So one time Emmanuel didn't block out. He had, I think bridges and
00:10:08
Speaker
You know, he didn't even look at bridges and bridges came flying in from the corner and got a rebound then got fouled. So they were uncharacteristic. We're still number one in the country, I believe in defense, right, Steve? Yep. Yes.
Advanced Analytics and Fan Experiences
00:10:20
Speaker
So, I mean, they're not robots. They're humans. You know, they make mistakes. And like I said, you know, basketball is a game of mistakes. You're going to make them. You still don't want to make too many of them.
00:10:31
Speaker
I thought all five of our starters played really well in a sharp and crier, scored 18 and 15 points respectively, while going 12 of 12 from the line, many of those late in the game and in overtime. Shed didn't have a particularly good shooting game when five of 17 from the floor, but 10 assists in addition to really making
00:10:58
Speaker
along with Sharp, Cryer and Wilson really making their guards work for everything that they got. And I think they absolutely did that. There's no question we're the best team in the big 12, but given my choice, I would much rather have going into the big 12 tournament. And I'll preface this by saying that I think that we'll have the one seed in the NCAA is sewn up by the time the big 12 tournament start.
00:11:25
Speaker
I'd prefer to have Baylor as a two or a three seed, not meet them until the finals. I'd much rather face a team like Kansas or TAC or anyone else. I think Baylor could be good in the tournament. Great win for us. This is the one I thought we could lose, but yeah, great game. Yeah, great. I actually predicted a loss, so I'm pleasantly surprised by the hard nose win.
00:11:54
Speaker
that our team pulled off. Starters remain the same, Shed, Cryer, Sharp, Roberts, and Francis. If you break this game into core tiles like Ken Palm does, we dominated the first two core tiles of the game where we ended up leading 41-25 at the half as we've discussed.
00:12:10
Speaker
while Baylor completely flipped the narrative in the third and fourth quartiles to send the game into OT. Our
Cincy Game Analysis and Highlights
00:12:17
Speaker
D was dominant in the first half, weakened a bit as they started to hit almost every three in the second, and then we came back strong on D again when it counted in OT.
00:12:28
Speaker
Funny story that you guys knew from our texting during the game, I was unable to watch the overtime live on the West Coast because ESPN actually cut the feed over to the Arizona Washington game. And I had to go online to watch the replay afterwards. So it was really the game cast that I was following.
00:12:47
Speaker
through the computer it's it was crazy even the feeds that they had highlighted going to i think espn news or whatever was not the right feed it was still the arizona game so it was extremely frustrating hey what do you expect when you decide to move to california oh i know what can i say that was your uh heidi game do you guys remember that one i've ever heard of the heidi game no raiders jets yes
00:13:15
Speaker
They cut to the movie Heidi. Oh, my gosh. Yeah, I was so angry at that point. I was trying every feed. Couldn't get it. Anyways, as stated earlier by you both, John Roberts was the star of the game for you age. I mean, he was a stat stuffer, 17 points, eight rebounds, four assists, six steals and three blocks and a player box score plus minus plus twenty two point one for the game, according to Bart Torvick.
00:13:42
Speaker
But to win on the road, especially at Baylor, that caliper of a team, everyone had to contribute in a big way. Emmanuel Sharp was on point with 18 points, 6 of 6 from the free throw line, and a player box score plus minus plus 4.3. Cryer had a highly efficient 15 points, 3 of 7 from three point range, 6 of 6 as well from the free throw line, and a player box score plus minus 9.1.
00:14:09
Speaker
just couldn't have come at a better time. Now for the Baylor game from an advanced analytics perspective, it was pretty eye popping for me. On offense, we played almost as efficiently as the UT game, which we all highlighted as probably our best game of the season on O. Our effective field goal percentage was above standard at 52.46%.
00:14:32
Speaker
versus basically 49.5% standard this year. But we continue to protect the ball better and better in conference play with turnover percentage at 11.43% for this game, which is better than our number six standard for the year at 13.4%.
00:14:51
Speaker
But we did offensive rebound below standard at 31%. And that kind of hurt us, especially in the second half. On D, though we started well, the second half was tough against Baylor's elite offense.
00:15:07
Speaker
They shot at an extremely high clip for the game with 52.7% effective field goal percentage, which is quite a bit above our 43.9% standard on D this year. But we blocked 16.7% of their two-point shots right at standard, limited their two-point shooting to 46.7% from the field, and first turnovers on 26% of their possessions.
00:15:35
Speaker
with steals on 19% of their possession. So just incredible stuff on D. As a recurring theme, Coach Drew referenced during the post-game press conference how his team was not prepared to deal with how physical we were on D, which is just an amazing comment, given this is the Big 12. Another extremely satisfying win this season, given it was Baylor at their place in our history with that program,
00:16:02
Speaker
They are truly the team that I hate the most in the big 12. But as we highlighted last week, a super quick turnaround for a Tuesday matchup versus Cincy at home to complete one of our mirror games. And this one was about leaning on our elite D and fighting through fatigue and a grinding 67 59 win over Cincy at home. As we swept our series with them this season.
00:16:26
Speaker
while continuing our eight-game win streak against that program dating back to the American Athletic Conference. Bill, why don't you go first? What are your thoughts on the game from a player's perspective?
00:16:39
Speaker
I agree with you, Steven. It's a bit of a tale of two halves. We won the first half 26-17, but lost the second 42-41 to a team that's actually been playing really poorly and has even quit in a couple of recent losses. But give them credit. They played hard for the entire game. At halftime,
00:17:04
Speaker
Yeah, they had 17 points. We had seven steals to one for them at halftime. They committed 10 turnovers in the first half, which obviously we forced. They were seven of 27 from the field and one of 10 from behind the arc. We just absolutely clamped down on them defensively in the first half, and that's despite shed shooting of seven from the field. However.
00:17:31
Speaker
Just to amend that, he also had six assists in the first half. He is so good at finding not only the open shooter, but the right shooter who's open. You know, whether that's Cryer, Roberts down low, whether it's Francis. He gets the ball to the right player and he gets the ball to them in positions.
Coaching Perspectives and Strategic Adjustments
00:17:56
Speaker
Where they're able to shoot comfortably and he does everything else winning plays right so that's right. They absolutely out rebounded us for the game they were out rebounded us by a dozen and. They turned their shooting around in the second half they took advantage of.
00:18:14
Speaker
I don't want to say nonchalant defense. I mean, we've had such a brutal stretch of games and it's, I know it's brutal for everyone in the Big 12, but with Baylor, with Iowa State, you know, a big emotional game with UT at home and a couple of Cincinnati games whose arrival. And now that we've got
00:18:33
Speaker
you know, sort of some depth issues with Ramon going out. I mean, whether they were tired, as you mentioned, Steve, but there was really never any doubt that we were going to lose. I mean, we were up 17 at one point and they hit some threes and they, you know, they got back into it and they played hard for the entire game. We discussed last week how Cincinnati is extremely turnover prone and how they hadn't committed many turnovers against us the first time. Well,
00:19:03
Speaker
little different this time. We committed 10 to their 19. We forced 15 steals, which is exceptional versus their four. Cryer may be turning the corner right now because he's had some better shooting games. He certainly shot well last night, particularly in the first half and absolutely carried the Cougs with his shooting.
00:19:27
Speaker
Jawad played well again, 4-6 from the field, 7-9 from the line, and he was aggressive throughout. Again, Shed had the poor shooting game, he went 2-11 for the entire game, but
00:19:42
Speaker
Once again, he, 11 assists, he got the ball to the right people. He had four steals of our 15 and just played a great game. Just the shots weren't falling. But the one guy in particular that I want to highlight is Javière. I mean, he was a monster.
00:20:01
Speaker
He only took three shots, but he was three of three from the field, five boards, three steals, two blocks. I mean, he was everywhere. I mean, especially on the defensive end, he played great. I mean, he really, really was impressive. I think he had three blocks even.
00:20:19
Speaker
This wasn't anywhere close to the 21 point win that I predicted. But the bottom line is we're one step closer to the conference title in year one in the big 12. So very good win. Nice. How about you, Tom, from a coach's perspective? Before I talk about Cincinnati, Steve, you forgot one important metric for the Baylor game.
00:20:41
Speaker
We played great free throw defense on Missy on that last free throw. I don't know, is there a metric for that? You know, I know he hasn't been good for the year and I know missing that one really ate at him. He was four for four from free throw line the very next game.
00:21:03
Speaker
Did you read about that? The basketball gods, we had our favor because when Rob Jones hit those four for four at Ames, that never happens. And that was like the difference in the game, you know, lost by four and he hit four free throws. But anyway, I'm just throwing that out for some giggles. But if Missy had hit that free throw,
00:21:26
Speaker
What's that? If Missy had hit that free throw, Shedd would have just shot that three at the buzzer about a split second earlier. So either way, we would have won. Yeah, that was unbelievable shot. Unfortunately, it didn't count. Not a whole lot to add to what Bill said about the Cincy game. Jamal Shedd, he's a point guard's point guard.
00:21:53
Speaker
as a coach, when I think of a point guard, I think it's my like Jamal shed, you know, he can score when the team needs it, but he doesn't have to, you know, we saw that in a non-conference games where other guys were open and they took, you know, majority of the shots, but he's an extension of coach Sampson on the floor. Another thing I'd like to point out is
00:22:15
Speaker
once again, like on the message boards and Twitter or whatever, you know, some comments about our offense, talking heads, you know, same thing, talking about our offense. But you know what? We still score 67 points. We scored what, 40? What was it? 41, Bill, at the second half. And just to give you a comparison, Kansas was at home last night and they scored 68.
00:22:41
Speaker
And nobody talks about their, their bad offense. You know, it's, I think you mentioned it. If we wanted to, we could play pretty offense, you know, we could get a shot in the first 10, 12, 14 seconds of the shot clock, but it wouldn't be complimentary basketball that goes with our defense and our rebounding. And there's something about basketball in that the quicker you shoot for some reason, the
00:23:09
Speaker
The worst your defense is I think it all has to do with the mentality. You know, it's almost like it's.
00:23:16
Speaker
And I had to go back to discipline, uh, I think, but there's a reason, I mean, coach Samson's a hall of fame coach. He has a style of play that wins. And they were saying that back in his Oklahoma days, you know, about, uh, he needed an offensive coordinator or whatever. But anyway, we had that stretch where Emmanuel sharp hit those two threes right in a row. That's called rocket. We saw that with Sasser too, where it's not just happenstance that's planned.
00:23:45
Speaker
where you dribble and then come to a jump stop and you pitch back to a three-point shooter. So that pretty much was the game right there, that 8-0 run after Jamal got whacked in the berries or with his gut or whatever, but he hit those two free throws and then Sharp comes back.
00:24:03
Speaker
With the two threes and that was an 8-0 run. I think we went from a 9-point lead to a 17-point lead. And for that, we just kind of leaped across the finish line. It's kind of like when a cat plays with its food, you know?
00:24:17
Speaker
just that's what it kind of reminded me of. It's like, come on, just eat the damn thing. That's kind of the way I saw the end there. Probably could have carved up that half court trap a couple more times and finish it off with some dunks. But hey, you know what? It is what it is. It's a big 12 dub. We're 12 and three. We're first in the conference when a lot of people thought that we couldn't
00:24:42
Speaker
make it in a big boy league after he started off one and two with those two losses, Iowa State and at TCU and you know, look at where we're at now. Bill, you mentioned JVA. I think Frampton Schill calls him the best six and six guy in the country. That's probably the best explanation you can
00:25:00
Speaker
say about JBA and it's amazing how much better he's gotten from the non-conference to right now. I was privileged to attend a practice back in November and Coach Sampson made a comment to JBA after he made like a step, bounce, hop, move to the basket. He stopped practicing. He said, you're getting better. You're getting better. But overall,
00:25:26
Speaker
Coach Sampson said, press conference, if you listen to it, we just need to be a little refreshed 10 days, four tough games. And I got a sneaking suspicion when we go to Oklahoma, you're gonna see a very energized, energetic University of Houston Cougar basketball team.
00:25:44
Speaker
For me, I love the win, quite honestly. I was just relieved to get out of there with a W and no new injuries. So I'm a happy camper. Starters remain the same. Things started very quickly for us in the first half with choir leading the way to a 16-10 lead in the first quartile of the game, according to Ken Palm. Pretty even in the second quartile with us taking a 26-17 lead into the half on a sharp three at the buzzer.
00:26:10
Speaker
We then extended the lead a little bit in the third quartile and as you guys had highlighted, basically hung on.
Upcoming Games: OU and UCF Analysis and Predictions
00:26:17
Speaker
while fighting fatigue from our toughest stretch of games to grind out the physical 67-59 win. But Cryer was the star, ending with 24 points, 4 of 10 from 3 point range, 4 of 5 from the free throw line, 2 assists, 3 steals. It was a player box score plus minus 20.5 for the game. Roberts was definitely feeling the grind from the Baylor game.
00:26:42
Speaker
and really only had two days between games. But Francis came up huge as you would highlight Bill for this game, delivering six points, five rebounds, three blocks, which I confirmed, and three steals in completely disrupting Cincy in the paint and was a player box score plus minus nine point six for the game. Another physical outing versus Cincy, which they always are. And it's
00:27:09
Speaker
just been the MO for our games with them over the years. They always get up for us. As you dig into the advanced analytics from Ken Palm on offense, we had a rough outing against their tough number 22 ranked D. Our effective field goal percentage was below norm at 45.4% where we've been roughly at 50% for the year. We also didn't protect the ball that well either with
00:27:33
Speaker
turnover percentage at 15.2% versus 13.4% as our standard for the year. And unfortunately, we also did an offensive rebound rate at 36.7%. But on D, as is always the case, it carried the day for us. We limited CNC to 44.3% effective field goal percentage, doing exceptionally well on their threes where they only hit 26.3% from three-point range.
00:28:03
Speaker
We also force them into turnovers on 30% of their possessions. That's crazy with 15 steals contributing to that tally.
00:28:13
Speaker
And it was an important home win for our Cougars against Cincy. And still, we remain alone atop the leaderboard of the Big 12 Conference standings. But of course, the No Conference for Old Men Big 12 presents a new set of challenges each and every week. And this time, it's a trip to Norman Saturday to face OU for our only game with them this season before turning around for yet another road game at UCF next Wednesday.
00:28:40
Speaker
But before we get to those games, let's each summarize the Big 12 games each of us highlighted last week. Tom, you want to kick things off? Which game were you watching? I know it was Kansas. I got to look back and see which one I had. Can I talk about the BYU game? Go ahead. Talk about whichever game you want to talk about. OK, let's talk about BYU last night. Yes.
00:29:06
Speaker
BYU was down 12 points on the road at the fog. The KU came back and ended up, I think, winning by eight. Now granted, KU didn't have McCullough playing, but every team, you know, has entries like Coach Sampson is. He's want to say, everybody's a sprained ankle away from mediocrity. You know, nobody's feeling sorry for us without having to play without Terrence and Ramon and Joanne with the bum knee.
00:29:35
Speaker
So nobody's feeling sorry for Kansas here, but BYU hit some incredible shots to finish off the game. It was a great game for BYU. I think they came into the game at 7-7 in the conference. It gives Kansas six losses, they're eight and six. Kansas now has to go play Baylor on the road on Saturday. And then they come to our place to finish the season. So it's possible Kansas could have eight losses in the Big 12 this year and go in 10-8.
00:30:04
Speaker
You know, yeah, welcome to the big boy league there, Kansas. I know I had another Kansas game, but that was definitely the interesting one, right? A bit of a shock. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. I can't remember the other one I had. Wasn't as good because Kansas won. Nice. How about you, Bill? What game did you have? I had UT at Tech, which was played last night right after our game.
00:30:33
Speaker
And fortunately I got home quickly enough to see an okay amount of the game. Steve, due to our dinner battle, he will finish higher in the conference. Last night could not have gone any better. Well, of course, who else? U of H wins. My pick in the
00:30:58
Speaker
Who will finish higher in the Big 12 bet? BYU, as Tom just reviewed, won at Kansas. And your pick, Texas Tech, really took it on the chin at home against UT. Which surprised me, quite honestly. Well, it surprised me as well. And I've talked about it a lot, how well I thought UT has been playing, especially in the second half of the season. I still thought that Tech would end up winning the game by seven.
00:31:27
Speaker
Yeah, shockingly, this game was virtually over from the opening tip. I know. Texas was up 47-23 at half, and was up by more in the second half.
00:31:39
Speaker
Before closing tech out by 12, what this does at this point, it puts UT now at 18 and 10, seven and eight in the conference. But that win, there's still predicted maybe a nine or a 10 seed in the NCAA's, but I think that win kind of secures the NCAA's for them. Tech's now 19 and nine, eight and seven, tied at eight and seven with BYU. One really interesting moment.
00:32:08
Speaker
and Tom, you and I were discussing it earlier, came when UT forward, Brock Cunningham just laid out tech guard, David Williams while chasing a loose ball. Cunningham never even looked at the ball. I mean, he was, I mean, this was a football play and, you know, I think Steve Sarkeesian should
00:32:32
Speaker
You know, should look into giving Cunningham a scholarship because maybe UT goes to the national championship game if they've got someone hitting that hard on a football team. Yeah, just a dirty play. Oh, I mean, he had no intention of getting to the ball. And I just laid a blindside block on Williams. Yeah.
00:32:54
Speaker
That was brutal. He was ejected as he should have been with a flagrant two. But what became interesting was that not only did tech shoot technical free throws from the flagrant two, but Texas ended up shooting free throws as well because while the officials were reviewing everything, the tech fans just showered the court with plastic, you know, water.
00:33:20
Speaker
Coke bottles and anything else they could find to throw. And then they make the announcement and then more came down. It was so bad that
00:33:31
Speaker
Grant McCaslin, yeah, that's coach had to get on the mic and address the fans and. Pointing out the obvious that they were causing. Tech problems and more technicals could be called on tech because of what the fans were doing. It's pretty embarrassing, quite honestly for a fan. Oh, absolutely.
00:33:54
Speaker
I mean, I zeroed in on the Baylor at TCU game, which came two days after our game with Baylor. And it did not turn out the way I expected, predicting an eight point win at home for TCU. But it was really no contest and the Baylor Bears were really impressive in regrouping quickly after their loss to us to rebound with the 62-54 win on the road.
00:34:17
Speaker
Jalen Bridges, who killed us, was key to the win for Baylor with 15 points, 4 of 6 from 3-point range, 8 rebounds, 4 steals, and a player box score plus minus 14.2 for the game. An 18-2 run for Baylor in the third quartile of the game basically doomed TCU.
00:34:37
Speaker
It was a low scoring game, so you might have guessed that this was a very defensive focus game. But I watched this from beginning to end, and I'll be honest, I thought it was more about missing shots than Tufti on either side.
00:34:52
Speaker
Both turned the ball over a ton. Neither shot well, but it was a matter of Baylor dominating the boards, 41 to 29, and their top players coming through in Bridges and Missy. Now let's get to the game preview for the upcoming UH-OU matchup. Another tough road game. Bill, what do you think of our game coming up in Norman?
00:35:14
Speaker
Yeah, this game's Saturday, it's at seven o'clock on ESPN2. Oklahoma is, I believe they're playing at ISU right now. So let's assume that state holds serve and that would put OU at 19 and nine and either ninth or 10th in the conference. It's kind of a tough two game stretch at Iowa State when they get us.
00:35:40
Speaker
Yeah, OU is struggling right now. They lost by 17 at Baylor. They lost by 10 at home against Kansas. They won by two in overtime on a last second three to beat Oklahoma State in Stillwater. And they're at Iowa State tonight. It's kind of a
00:36:00
Speaker
Not a great stretch for OU, especially as they're sinking a little bit in the conference and they're in the tournament right now. And I'm assuming that they'll remain in, but they're starting to get a little sketchy. Yeah. OU's got some talented players. They play eight players consistently. So they've got a bench. Everyone plays. They're solid offensively. They're good defensively. They move the ball pretty well.
00:36:31
Speaker
But like a lot of the other big 12 teams that we've talked about recently, they're pretty sloppy with the ball and they'll tend to turn it over.
00:36:39
Speaker
I'll mention a few players just because this is the first time we've really talked about them. J. Van McCollum, their 6'2 guard, he leads them at 14 points a game, but he shoots only 41% from the field. Otega, Owa, he's a 6'5 guard. He is a good shooter. He's only scoring 12 points. He's their second leading scorer.
00:37:01
Speaker
four boards, but he shoots 51% from the field, 41% from three. So he's someone that will want to pay attention to Milos Uzon, 10.9, 10 point game score, three and a half boards, point guard leads them, four and a half assists, but he's only a 39% shooter from the field. And then the last one I'll mention is Jalen Moore, 6'7 forward,
00:37:26
Speaker
11 points a game, six and a half boards. He's their top rebounder, 55% from the field. And although he doesn't shoot a lot of them, he shoots 42% from three. So they've got some shooters, they'll hit shots if they're open.
00:37:43
Speaker
We need to stay on them. And it's another game where we simply need to create turnovers because they are turnover prone. We pound the ball inside, hopefully win the rebound battle.
00:37:57
Speaker
and just guard their shooters. I think this will be a tougher game than a lot of people think. I think we end up winning a 68-63 5-point win. Oh, wow. That's not like you to predict such a close margin. Well, it's as I know, as we've certainly deciphered throughout this season, it's not easy to win on the road. Absolutely not. In the big 12 and
00:38:27
Speaker
It's not like when we went into Iowa state, you know, being the only undefeated team or, you know, immediately thereafter going to TCU where they were fired up as well. But, uh, it is brutal playing on the road in the big 12. Yeah, I like it. How about you, Tom? The first thing before I forget is the homecoming of the Sampson's and Qantas white Hollis price going back to Oklahoma, Norman, the Sampson's still have.
00:38:56
Speaker
many, many friends, I think Kelvin mentioned the other day, everybody needs to have a hometown and Norman is mine. So he looks very fondly on, on those years. Kellen grew up in, in Norman played for Oklahoma. Lauren was grown up. Karen has many, many friends. Qantas was a great player in Oklahoma. And then Hollis price is one of the greatest players in Oklahoma history, you know, first team all Americans. So it's going to be.
00:39:24
Speaker
I think an emotional homecoming, especially with OU now heading off to the SEC. So it's the one time that we're going to get play in and Norman. OU, like Bill said, you know, they're, they're good defensively tonight. They only gave it 25 points in the first half to ISU. The problem is they only scored 20 points. So they were down 25, 20 at halftime.
00:39:49
Speaker
I think right now it's a, it's 11 point second half leaf for ISU. Oh use led by coach Porter Moser, formerly at Loyola Chicago. If you guys recall Loyola Chicago, the year they made the final four, very, very fun team to watch.
00:40:04
Speaker
They're really, really good offensively. The players he had at Loyola just brand his system. They were just perfect for it. And you can't say the same thing about OU. I wouldn't say OU is a fun team to watch. You recruit different types of players. So I think it's a little bit of a struggle there with Porter Mosier at Oklahoma trying to get his guys to play how they did at Loyola Chicago. Yeah.
00:40:33
Speaker
It's not going to be an easy one. None of them are. Hopefully, we can put two halves together, both offensively and defensively. You know, we've shown we can score in the low 40s on offense in a half, but we struggle to put two halves like that together. We've been holding teams 17 points the other night, low 20s, mid 20s. And then the next half, it seems like we give up 42, 41, 44 points. So I'm looking to see if we can put two halves together
00:41:03
Speaker
on both ends of the floor. And if we do that, it could be a 20 point win. From an advanced analytics perspective, we're number one in Ken Palm versus OU at 38. If you look at it from an offense perspective, we're 18th currently in adjusted offensive efficiency, while OU is 24 in adjusted defensive efficiency. On the flip side, as everyone knows, we remain number one in adjusted defensive efficiency in the country.
00:41:29
Speaker
versus OU who is ranked 58th in adjusted offensive efficiency. On offense, OU is one of the better shooting teams will have played this season and they're ranked 49th in effective field goal percentage and are especially deadly in two-point range, ranking 29th in Ken Palm. But they have been turning the ball over a ton, ranking 222nd in Ken Palm in turnover percentage.
00:41:57
Speaker
They count on scoring a lot via the free throw line, so our defense will be put to the test yet again. Then you match that up with our number one effective field goal percentage D that defends every shot. That specifically is number five defending the two point shot, second in block shots and number one in steals. And I really like how we match up versus OU's offense. On the flip side, OU's D has been great this year for OU.
00:42:26
Speaker
where they've improved to number 24 in adjusted defensive efficiency according to Ken Palm. Their strength is with effective field goal percentage D where they're ranked 27th and exceptional at defending the three point line where they're ranked 8th. But they don't force a lot of turnovers ranking 200th or block a lot of shots where they're ranked 185. Keys for us will be how much we can turn them over to manufacture points in transition and controlling the paint area on D.
00:42:56
Speaker
Based on the metrics, this is projected to be a seven-point win for the Cougs on the road by Ken Palm. I'm actually in agreement on this one, and so I think this is going to be the first time where my predicted margin of win is higher than Bill's, and I'm projecting a 68-61 win. Now, let's get to the Wednesday preview for the subsequent UCF matchup, a rematch in Orlando. Tom, why don't you kick things off and let us know what you think.
00:43:24
Speaker
I think it's going to be a very, very ugly game versus UCF. UCF is, they don't seem to shoot very well. They defend, you know, they have some length. Like Helen says, it's going to be a street fight, a rock fight. I do think we win, but if you're looking for a game that aesthetically pleasing, you probably need to watch, I don't know, Alabama maybe.
00:43:51
Speaker
in Kentucky. This is going to be a war. Okay. How about you, Bill? What do you think? Well, UCF is, we were talking about this earlier since you viewed said 14 and 12. I thought there were 14 and 11 going into tonight. I could be wrong. Excuse me there.
00:44:11
Speaker
They're at Oklahoma State tonight and home versus ISU before playing us. I'm going to assume that we go to UCF with them at 14 and 13 and in real danger of, and we talked about this as well, missing the NIT because I thought you had to be 500 overall to make the NIT and that may have changed, but if that is the case, they're going to be in real danger of missing the NIT.
00:44:45
Speaker
incredibly low scoring game, 57-42. They had 14 at half. They made seven shots for the entire game, two of which came from their starters. They did shoot 24 of 33 from the line. And this was an afternoon where at the Fortuna Center where I think the officials were in a whistle blowing contest. Yes. I remember that. Yes. See who could call more fouls. It was borderline ridiculous. Yeah.
00:45:07
Speaker
Yeah, we played them in January.
00:45:13
Speaker
all when we were on D. I'll only mention two of their players, their back court, which is their strength, Jaylen Sellers, the 6-4-2 guard. He's been solid all year at 16 and a half points, four boards, but he only shoots 42% from the field. Darius Johnsons, the 6-1 point guard, another good player averages 14 points, three boards, four assists. He shoots 40% from the field. They've been a very good defensive team this year.
00:45:41
Speaker
You know, for a 500 team, basically, uh, they, they play very good defense, especially at home, but they are a terrible offensive team, not a good shooting team. And that's problematic against us unless of course, all their shots come from the free throw line again. And hopefully the game will be a little more.
00:46:03
Speaker
balanced in terms of the officiating. They are also a pretty sloppy team with the ball and we just talked about that with OU and we talked about it with Cincinnati and some of the others. This is a team that turns the ball over. The thing is they have beaten Kansas, OU, and Tech at home and Texas.
00:46:26
Speaker
They'd be Texas on the road. Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah. The Texas one was on the road. But Kansas OU and Tech wins were at home. The problem for them is that nobody defends guards like shed crier and sharp do. We're not a good matchup for them, especially when they're on offense. And
00:46:50
Speaker
If we control the boards, which I imagine we're going to do, we stay out of foul trouble. We hit some shots. We score off our own missed shots. I think we win this game easily and I have us winning 68 54. Okay. So you're back to the bigger margins for this one. So this team just does not match up well with us. Yeah.
00:47:15
Speaker
I made from an advanced analytics perspective where again, number one in Ken Palm while UCF is 68. We're 18th in adjusted offensive efficiency. They are 13th in adjusted defensive efficiency. So probably one of the two toughest defensive teams we'll play this year next to Iowa state. On the flip side, we're number one in adjusted defensive efficiency. They are a dismal 171st in adjusted offensive efficiency.
00:47:45
Speaker
Like a few weeks ago, on offense, UCF is just one of the few worst shooting teams than us, ranking 288th in effective field goal percentage.
Big 12 Highlights and Predictions
00:47:56
Speaker
But our high offensive rebound rate, where they are ranked 8th in the country, but to make things worse, they are also a high turnover team, which we saw at home in game one, ranking 198th in turnover percentage.
00:48:09
Speaker
They basically count on free throws for a good portion of their points each and every game. The new match add up with our number two effective field goal percentage D that defends every shot, number two D in block shots, and number one in steals, plus our great familiarity with each other. And I believe we shut them down again in this rematch.
00:48:30
Speaker
On the flip side, UCF is underrated on D if that can happen to the number 13th ranked adjusted defensive efficiency team in Ken Palm. Like us.
00:48:42
Speaker
They also challenge every single shot ranking 33rd and effective field goal percentage D. They're especially exceptional at defending the two where they're ranked 17th and are great at forcing turnovers where they're ranked 29th. They've beaten, as you had highlighted, KU, OU, Tech at home this season. So if there's ever a definition of that dreaded trap game on our schedule, this is the closest thing to it.
00:49:10
Speaker
Key for us will be our three-point shooting and how much we can turn them over on D to manufacture points in transition. Based on the metrics, this is projected to be a 10-point win by Ken Palm. With a tough road game at OU prior to this, I think this will be closer, but still a seven-point win. This is going to be a tricky one, so our Cougs need to try to stay focused for this game.
00:49:35
Speaker
Now, what other big 12 games should fans pay attention to this week that are of interest? Bill, you want to go first? Sure. I have getting back to picking a, an upcoming U of H opponent. I have Iowa state at the aforementioned UCF and, uh, no point in dwelling on UCF. Cause we just talked about them. I'd love to see Iowa state go down and give us the big 12 title a little earlier than, than it will happen.
00:50:04
Speaker
But once again, this is not a game that UCF, even playing at home, is going to win. It's a bad matchup for them, just like it's a bad matchup for us. Iowa State's defense will prevent UCF's guards from getting going and unfortunately coming close to pulling off the upset.
00:50:26
Speaker
You know, the teams that are a little softer defensively are the teams that UCF has been able to beat Kansas, Texas, Tech. Unfortunately, Iowa State's not one of those teams and neither are we. So bottom line is UCF is going to lose this game. Iowa State will win it. They'll win it comfortably. I have Iowa State winning by a dozen. Nice. How about you, Tom?
00:50:54
Speaker
I'll stick with my love for KU rock chalk F y'all like a Gala Robinson likes to say, I'm going to be probably the biggest Baptist in the country on Saturday. Cause they're at Baylor.
00:51:07
Speaker
Good game seriously Baylor matches up. Well, I I expect him to win Inside you got Missy and oh John Wuna who match up really well with Dickinson Especially if if Baylor goes zone, which I expect them to do that's probably gonna limit Dickinson a little bit Baylor also has the athleticism in the length to match up with McCulloch he plays and KJ Adams they have
00:51:34
Speaker
Jacoby Walter, who's just a fantastic freshman. And they also have Jalen Bridges, who's 6'9", so they have that length and that athleticism to match up with KJ and McCuller. Guards, you know, Ray J. Dennis has some height. I think he's like 6'4", so he can match up with Fervy on the premature in their zone. And then you have Nunn also, who's
00:51:57
Speaker
quicker than a cat covering up crap. You know, he's really athletic. So I expect a Baylor win in this one. Yeah. Give KU their seventh conference loss.
00:52:09
Speaker
Okay, so I'm picking the BYU at ISU game. Fascinated by the contrasting styles again, especially after BYU's blowout win over ISU in game one. This is a rematch where BYU won the first one in Provo 87-72. And again, really ISU's only blowout loss of the season.
Conclusion and Future Content Preview
00:52:32
Speaker
So ISU will be looking for revenge. Great D in Iowa State versus Great O in BYU pitted against each other.
00:52:40
Speaker
BYU plays quick in transition for open threes, why Iowa State plays a bit more deliberate and pounded in the paint for twos. BYU has been one of the most difficult offenses in the Big 12 to defend with their emphasis on the threes, where they're number two and three-point offense and number eight in two-point field goal percentage. Plus, as good as ISU is on D, whether, again, number three and adjusted defensive efficiency,
00:53:09
Speaker
Their three-point D is ranked a lowly 178th in Kempal. It is their one and only weak link on D. Based on the metrics, this should be around a five-point win for Iowa State at home, but based on matchups and the fact that BYU is riding high after beating KU and Lawrence, I'm projecting a BYU win by three.
00:53:35
Speaker
I like it. Yeah, I know you like it. But I'd love to see this kind of a upset in the making. So we'll see. Perfect. Hey, Steve. Yeah. Can I mention one thing real quickly? Absolutely. Thanks. Coming up.
00:53:53
Speaker
No Conference for Old Men podcast. We have a special podcast and it's not only in-depth but it's really comprehensive with U of H athletic director Chris Pezman. I would definitely tune in to listen to that because Chris does an amazing job and it's worth the listen. Absolutely. So that's it for episode 18 of the No Conference for Old Men podcast.
00:54:18
Speaker
Hope you all enjoyed it. And again, would really appreciate it if folks would follow, subscribe or collect our podcast, depending on your podcast platform of choice. We are also available via the Republic of football podcast fee from the folks at Dave Campbell's Texas Football as the only basketball centric podcast, or at the Goku's dot com website for those that prefer to digest the content that way. We appreciate the continued support from all. Also, please give us a follow on our Twitter account. No conference for old men.
00:54:47
Speaker
Thank you all again for listening. And as Bill had highlighted, in addition to our usual episode, we will have a special edition episode dropping next week with VP of Athletics, Chris Pezman. So please be on the lookout to download and listen as the episodes drop. Take care, everyone.